📢🔥This is what happens next!!!
We have officially entered the phase of “everyone thinks the others are stupid” in the crypto cycle.
Half of the timeline is convinced that Bitcoin is about to rise to over $150K next year…
…while the other half confidently calls for $40k btc by the end of next year.
So who is actually right?
I have looked into the data, the charts, and the macros… all of it.
Here’s where we really are now and what’s coming next:
1/ Honestly?
The way this drop was executed makes $126K look like the real top.
- BTC tried to break in mid $120,000s, but couldn't gain any real momentum and just dumped.
- There wasn't a strange explosion candle, no moment of "this is crazy", no noise in the late stage. Nothing you'd typically expect at the peak of a cycle.
- A trillion dollars disappeared in just a few weeks
- ETH and the brokers flipped at exactly the same time, and neither showed even a glimpse of manic behavior.
If that's not the top, it sure made a very good impression of one.
2/ What really happened?
Demand took a day off basically.
- Stablecoin printing has slowed down
- Drought of ETF flows
- Derivatives traders have moved away
- Funding has stopped
Everyone is staring at the interest rate decision in December thinking: "Eh... I’ll just wait."
3/ Liquidity now feels like it's walking on thin ice.
- Medium-sized order moves affect the percentage of price
- Order books look like a ghost town during peak hours
- A large whale sale could move the entire market
The market is very fragile right now.
4/ Derivatives tell the same story:
- Volatility has increased
- Defensive distributions have flipped
- Traders hedged instead of jumping into buys
- Interest in futures has dropped even during relief bounces
No leverage = no momentum.
As simple as that.
5/ On-chain signals?
It's not fear, but hesitation.
- CDD jumped a bit, but the real old hands aren't moving
- aSOPR sitting around 1 = no big profit-taking, no sudden worries
- Most selling comes from mid-term holders, not long-term believers
It's confusion, not capitulation.
6/ What about institutions?
- Billions of BTC ETFs were sold
- ETH ETFs did the same thing
- OTC desks reported a lot of nothing
Some money is flowing into shiny new products, but large allocations are clearly not rushing into anything right now.
7/ Macro should help in the end...
… timing is the issue.
- Markets expect a cut in December
- Global easing has started
- But strong job data + steady inflation = the Fed says "not so fast"
So we sit here... waiting.
8/ This isn't a panic sell.
It's a controlled bleed.
No liquidation cascades.
No mass exit attacks.
Just a slow and steady distribution in a weak market, which can be more damaging as it saps confidence without giving a clear bottom.
9/ The big picture?
The bullish narrative is still alive.
In the near term? We are in a fragile and wandering market.
- Weak funding
- Exchange balances are rising
- Sentiment is in "absolute fear" mode
- Buyers are waiting for someone else to move first
Until a real catalyst shows up, expect volatility, drifting, and another test of lower levels, possibly around $72,000. This is my forecast.
When this bull cycle ends and it’s actually time to sell, I’ll announce that publicly as I always do. I don’t hold tops or bottoms. If you’re here, you’ll see it.
If you want to know why I think a recession is coming next year, check out the post I wrote yesterday. It has a million views and there’s a reason for that.
My head says it all ‼️‼️‼️#BTC 
