We divide the market into three cycles: short, medium, and long to examine.
1. Short-term minute chart: The oversold rebound signal is strong; price and Bollinger Bands: The price has reached and even slightly penetrated the lower Bollinger Band at 2987. In a normal market environment, this is a classic short-term 'return to mean' signal, with technical demand for the price to rebound to the middle band (3024) or even the upper band (3060). In the short term, the market has 'stopped falling,' and a rebound is imminent. The first target is at 3024, with stronger resistance at 3060.
2. From the hourly chart, the bearish trend dominates the price and the Bollinger Bands; the price is running below the middle band (3065), which is a clear sign of a bearish medium-term trend. The entire Bollinger Band channel is tilted downwards, with the upper band reaching 3485 and the lower band at 2646, indicating a huge medium-term volatility range but a downward shift in the center of gravity. The medium-term trend remains downward. Any short-term rebound that fails to effectively break through and stabilize above 3065, this key watershed, is regarded as a 'dead cat bounce' in the downward trend.
From the daily perspective, the current price is around 3000 points, which is an important psychological level and a dense trading zone from before. If the medium-term decline continues, the next strong support level is in the 2650-2700 range. If bearish, it is more likely that this is a bull trap or a bearish signal. When the vast majority of people in the market are bullish, it means potential buying has already dried up (because those who want to buy have bought), while the potential selling (bulls closing positions) is very large. This explains why 'the proportion of bulls is high, but the price is falling,' because bulls are continuously stopping losses or being liquidated, becoming new selling power.
There may be three possible future trends:
The first type is a short-term rebound, with a medium-term continued decline, with a highest probability of about 60%. The price may trigger a short-term oversold rebound near the current ~2995, challenging upwards to 3024 → 3060. The key nodes in the 3060-3065 area will become the battleground for bulls and bears. Here, the bears will defend vigorously, and if the bulls cannot break through with volume, the price will turn down again. In terms of subsequent trends, if the rebound fails, the price will test the support at 2982 (yesterday's low) again. Once it breaks down, it will start a medium-term decline journey towards 2900 → 2650.
The second type is a strong reversal, returning to an upward channel, with a lower probability: about 25%. The price initiates a strong rebound, accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume. The key signal is that the price must break through with volume and stabilize above 3065, which will force the bears to cover their positions and attract outside capital to enter, thereby pushing the price further up to challenge 3200 or even 3485.
The third possibility is a direct breakdown, with the lowest probability: about 15%. The market is extremely weak, ignoring all short-term oversold signals, directly breaking through the 2982 support. Once it breaks down, it may trigger panic selling and a bull squeeze, with prices accelerating towards 2900 and 2650. This trend is usually triggered by sudden major negative news.
Overall, the market is at a battleground node between short-term rebounds and medium-term declines. The most likely path is for the price to make a weak rebound first, then after being blocked at the 3060-3065 key resistance area, restart the downward trend. Everyone should formulate plans around the two core points of 2982 (support) and 3065 (resistance), and closely monitor changes in trading volume. Please make decisions in conjunction with real-time market conditions and manage risks well.
