Current market performance
Bitcoin (BTC) price trend: As of November 30, 2025, the Bitcoin price is reported at $90,990.03, up 0.13% from the previous trading day. Technically, Bitcoin is fluctuating within the range of 638,000 to 645,000 RMB, with bulls and bears engaged in fierce competition near key support and resistance levels.
Ethereum (ETH) price performance: Ethereum is currently reported at $3,007.30, down 1.00% for the day. The price fluctuates within the range of 21,025 to 21,541 RMB, showing an overall short-term consolidation pattern.
Analysis of rebound driving factors
1. Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts rise
Core catalyst: The expectation for a Fed rate cut in December has significantly increased to 84.9%, becoming the core driving force behind this round of rebound. The market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed has surged from 50.1% a week ago to 85.3%, and this shift in expectation has directly ignited the risk asset market.
Policy shift signal: Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, has become the top candidate for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. His dovish stance is expected to promote looser monetary policy. If Hassett takes office, he may push the Fed to transition to a rate-cutting policy more quickly.
2. Technical oversold rebound
Recovery after deep correction: Bitcoin has corrected more than 36% from its historical high of $126,080 in October, falling to $80,843 on November 21, with the substantial decline accumulating sufficient momentum for a rebound. Ethereum also corrected from its high of $4,946 to around $3,000, with a decline of 33%.
Technical indicator recovery: The RSI indicator has made a strong rebound from the oversold area, and the MACD has shown a bullish crossover, with multiple technical indicators indicating that the market has entered an oversold recovery phase.
3. Signs of institutional fund bottom-fishing
Whale accumulation behavior: On-chain data shows that "whale" addresses holding over 1,000 Bitcoins began to accumulate in the $92,000-$95,000 range, with long-term holders' selling volume decreasing by 32% month-on-month. In terms of Ethereum, whales bought $1.37 billion worth of ETH when the price dropped by 12% in November.
ETF fund flow improves: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has ended a continuous net outflow trend, with recent signs of institutional bottom-fishing in the $80,000-$85,000 range.
Market sentiment and risk factors
Current market sentiment
Fear and greed index: Rose from extreme fear at 11 points to 20 points, indicating that market sentiment is marginally improving but still in a cautious state.
Liquidation data: On November 27, the number of liquidations exceeded 100,000 in a single day, with a total liquidation amount reaching $301 million, indicating that market leverage levels remain high and the long-short battle is fierce.
Major risk factors
Policy uncertainty: The Fed's rate cut in December is not a certainty. If employment data improves beyond expectations, policy may suddenly shift, triggering significant market volatility.
Regulatory pressure: The U.S. SEC is still advancing new regulations for cryptocurrency derivatives. If margin requirements are increased, it will further compress leverage space.
Technical pressure: Bitcoin encounters resistance near $93,000, while Ethereum faces pressure at the $3,100 level, facing technical correction pressure in the short term.
Market outlook and trading suggestions
Technical analysis
Key positions of Bitcoin:
• Support levels: $90,000 (psychological level), $88,000-$88,500 (strong support area)
• Resistance levels: $93,000-$93,500 (this week's high point area), $95,000 (psychological level and technical resistance)
Key positions of Ethereum:
• Support levels: $2,950-$3,000 (psychological support area), $2,850-$2,900 (strong support)
• Resistance levels: $3,100-$3,130 (previous high point area), $3,300 (technical resistance)
Investment strategy suggestions
Short-term trading: Lightly long near key support levels, strictly set stop-loss. Consider reducing positions or going short near resistance levels.
Medium to long-term layout: adopt a "pyramid" phased accumulation strategy, starting to accumulate in the $83,500-$85,000 range, controlling total position within 30%, with $80,000 as the ultimate stop-loss level.
Risk control: Single position not exceeding 15% of total funds, strictly enforce stop-loss discipline, and avoid blindly chasing high prices at key resistance levels.
Summary
The current rebound in the cryptocurrency market is mainly driven by multiple factors, including expectations of Fed rate cuts, technical oversold recovery, and institutional bottom-fishing. However, the market still faces challenges such as policy uncertainty, regulatory pressure, and leverage risks. Investors should remain cautiously optimistic, focusing on the effectiveness of key support levels like $90,000 and $3,000, as well as the policy guidance from the Fed's December meeting.
I am Chen Xi, a seasoned cryptocurrency enthusiast and practical instructor, your reliable partner on the journey of trading cryptocurrencies! If you find yourself confused in a losing position, follow me, and I will help you avoid pitfalls with practical experience.
