Preface:

Every time the market declines, the same scene always appears: a group of people jumps out saying, 'See, I told you it was a scam'; then when the market turns, the same group lines up, chases the highs, and shouts about how great it is. This extreme back-and-forth of emotions has made me numb after eight years in this industry.

It's not that people are unwilling to believe in the future, but rather — when a bear market arrives, people become afraid to believe in the future.

But the fact is: When we talk about price, we are actually talking about the future. Because price is never 'now', but the market's discounting of the future. If we continue to only focus on price, the future will slip away from us.

In the past decade, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs has been the culmination of a long struggle;

And now, the rapid rollout of altcoin ETFs within a few months marks a new consensus between the market and regulators: the compliance channel itself is the core value. Whether it's institutions, project teams, or ordinary investors, everyone must face this reality.

Under the new order: assets entering the compliance channel will receive priority allocation and sustained premiums from mainstream capital;

Assets that cannot enter the channel will accelerate their marginalization, even gradually heading towards zero.

This round of differentiation is not a short-term phenomenon but the main theme for the future.

Understanding and positioning oneself on the side of compliant assets has become the most fundamental and also the most critical lesson for participating in the crypto market in the next phase.

Those who wake up early are laying out their plans, those who wake up late are chasing highs, and those who have completely not woken up will eventually be cleared out.


Although this week's trading days are short and not sustained, a clear upward momentum can still be seen in the U.S. stock market, especially in the face of the consumption phase of 'Black Friday' and the Thanksgiving holiday and weekend, where there has not been a significant outflow of funds or risk-averse sentiment.

It is clear that holidays and weekends cannot stop the bullish momentum. If the declines of the past two weeks were a chance for U.S. stocks to 'kill valuations,' then currently it might be a stage of bullish consolidation after valuation adjustments.

Especially with the gradual increase in expectations for a rate cut in December, signs of trading on these expectations have become increasingly evident. If U.S. stocks maintain strong upward momentum during the normal trading days next week, it can basically be confirmed that the market is preemptively pricing in the December rate cut.

Meanwhile, BTC has rebounded and broken through short-term resistance due to the influence of U.S. stocks, causing prices to directly V-rebound after a sharp short-term drop.

However, it is still necessary to note that since we are betting on a rate cut in December, we need to pay attention to the market's 'sell the news' after the rate cut on December 10.

Additionally, before the rate cut, it is important to pay attention to Powell's speech after the rate decision and the dot plot in December. If the dot plot indicates a reduced frequency of rate cuts in the first half of next year, accompanied by Powell's hawkish statements (raising the threshold for the next rate cut, such as lower inflation or worse employment data), then the market is likely to face another adjustment after this month's rate cut.

In the first half of 2026, the frequency of interest rate meetings will be in January, March, April, and June. If Powell's hawkish rate cut raises the threshold for cuts, the short-term bullish momentum may be lacking, which could continue to weaken the likelihood of rate cuts in January and March. At that time, the market may continue to experience a volatile adjustment due to the lack of bullish momentum.

For BTC, the V-rebound after a sharp drop is not a good trend. This kind of V-rebound does not last long; it is better to take the opportunity to adjust downwards, complete consolidation, turnover, and bottom formation at the bottom, and then gradually initiate a new upward trend. If the bottom formation is completed, we can optimistically look forward to new highs!

Currently, the probability of a rate cut in December by CME is 86.4%, while the probability for January has dropped to 23%. Obviously, if a rate cut occurs in December, the likelihood of a continued rate cut in January is currently low!

Looking to the future

Once the AI bubble bursts, with U.S. stock valuations adjusting by over 30%, and after the Fed cuts rates, capital will still actively buy shares of leading companies in the U.S. stock market and gold. There is a high probability that this will happen within three years. Another new economic upcycle is about to begin.

After a short-term correction of over 10% in gold, it can further be seen as bullish in the medium to long term following the Fed's rate cuts. Gold ETFs can also be properly allocated at around 20%.

Although the fluctuations of the crypto market in 2025 will be very drastic and the trends filled with confusion, it does not affect the fact that the crypto market will gain tremendous opportunities in this round of rate cuts and the future new economic upcycle. The current position of the crypto circle has basically corrected back to the early stage of last year's bull market. Such opportunities in this round of cycles, and even looking back in the future, will not be many; you must carefully consider whether this is the best entry point in the coming years.