To be honest, this interest rate decision was almost without suspense; the market had priced it in to the maximum extent possible.

You could even predict about 70-80% of what Powell's tone and the teleprompter should say in advance.


But the key point last night was not about 'the rate cut itself.'

The focus is on the changes in several implicit lines—this is what really affects the rhythm of 2025.


Let me break it down one by one.


1️⃣ The inflation gauge has loosened, which is the most important signal in the entire speech


Powell used to be very tough:

“We must return to 2%, we must be more confident, we must see more data…”


But last night suddenly changed the rhetoric:


“If there were no tariff effects, inflation would have actually returned to 2%.”


This statement has a significant impact and has three layers of meaning:


（1）He is hinting that core PCE is already 'sufficient', and the target doesn't need to be adhered to so strictly.

（2）Also reserving steps for future rate cuts— even if the numbers haven't reached 2%, he can still say 'we judge that we are close enough'.

（3）Shifting the blame to tariffs, the pressure from US monetary policy has been halved.


This is an extremely typical prelude to a policy shift.

2️⃣ Powell rarely 'names' AI, emphasizing productivity instead of raising unemployment.


Such things are extremely rare.


The Federal Reserve generally does not discuss specific industries, as it seems like sending signals to the market.


But last night he said:


“Currently, there is no large-scale layoffs triggered by AI; instead, productivity is increasing.”


You should know that in the Federal Reserve's language system, once the words 'productivity' appear, it is a silent applause for tech stocks.


Why is the tech sector so resilient?

It's not retail investors who are FOMOing; it's institutions reevaluating premiums based on productivity models.


The sideways movement of Crypto is more due to Bitcoin reaching around 90,000; profits naturally need to be taken, not due to pessimistic policies.

3️⃣ Don't take the dot plot too seriously, as the real variable is in 2026: Who will succeed Powell.


This is the point that was easiest to overlook last night but is the most fatal.


Everyone is now focused on the dot plot, which is actually a bit of a busy work.

Because in another year, Powell's term will end.


Now Wall Street's mainstream expectation is:


Kevin Hassett is very likely to be the next Federal Reserve Chair.


If it really is him, then the style will shift directly from 'steady and hawkish' to 'strong stimulus'.


Who is Hassett?


  • He was previously Trump's economic advisor.

  • Advocating for tax cuts.

  • Supporting balance sheet expansion.

  • Emphasizing that the priority of economic growth is higher than inflation

  • Friendly attitude towards emerging industries (including AI & digital assets)


In a word:

If there is a change in personnel, all predictions now must be redone.


This is the 'variable' that the market should really focus on.


4️⃣ Why hasn't Crypto followed the US stock market surge? The answer is simpler than you think.


It's not that good news is being realized, nor is the crypto market weak.


It's just that:


The position is too high, profits are too thick, and news landing naturally needs to wash out.


From on-chain data:


  • A large number of short-term addresses are cashing out in the range of 88,000 to 90,000.

  • Long-term holders' assets move very little.

  • Both buying and selling are very restrained, more like 'mechanical turnover' rather than panic.


So the current fluctuations are essentially:


The issue is the position, not the logic.


5️⃣ The key node in 2025: it's not interest rates, but 'tariffs + employment'.


It is almost a certainty that there will be no rate cuts in January, and the market doesn't care.


What really matters is:


① The Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs (determines whether inflation can be completely eased)

② Whether employment data continues to soft land (determines the pace of rate cuts)


These two things are actually much more important than interest rates.


6️⃣ How will things proceed next? In a word: Don't mess with core assets.


Short term:

Sideways + washing positions + turnover + waiting for new narratives.


Medium term:

If tariffs relax, the structural bull market in the first half of 2025 will be very strong.


Long term:

2026 is the true starting point of the super cycle—because of the 'change of Chair'.


Remember:


Rate cuts are not the trend; changing the Chair is the trend.

Inflation is not a variable; the policy framework is the variable.


In this pattern,

Core assets (BTC/ETH/XRP/AI chains/RWA) are currently in disarray, actually giving money to others.#BTC走势分析