PANews reported on December 12 that Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Global Macro Director, pointed out in a post on the X platform that after excessive speculation in the crypto market has subsided, market sentiment has improved. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's easing policies and the calmness of the bond and foreign exchange markets, Bitcoin's official closing in 2025 is actually quite good. Previously, the Bitcoin treasury company provided 'returns' by purchasing Bitcoin through issuing stocks, which may now become a resistance to Bitcoin's rise and has raised questions about whether another four-year cycle has ended.
However, observing the structure of Bitcoin's mature network curve shows that since 2010, Bitcoin has experienced five waves of upward trends, each wave's increase smaller than the previous one, but the duration has been getting longer. The performance from the most recent bull market (starting around $16,000 in 2022) indicates that Bitcoin is already very mature. According to the five-wave upward trend chart shared by Jurrien Timmer, the peak price level of Bitcoin in the fifth wave could be $151,360.
Recently, the biggest focus in the market has been the decline of AI stock Oracle, which has impacted the entire tech stock trend. The crypto market has been affected in the short term, and of course, the bigger actual negative factor is the potential interest rate hike expected by the Bank of Japan on the 19th. It is well known that liquidity and sentiment are the core key factors that most affect the rise and fall of the crypto market. Lu Ge mentioned in the article on December 3 that once the AI bubble bursts, with US stock valuations correcting by over 30%+, and after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, capital will still actively buy leading US stocks and gold. This is highly likely to happen within three years. Another new economic upturn cycle is taking shape, and now the macro market is basically moving in this direction. On the 12th, the Bank of Japan also signaled that it will continue to implement accommodative monetary policies and flexibly use more interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to maintain ample market liquidity.
A short-term adjustment in the market is certainly necessary. We cannot currently estimate how much impact the actual interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan will have on the market in the short term, but Lu Ge believes that one must have a forward-looking perspective when viewing the market. Do not be alarmed by certain news, as news often has certain confusion and purpose. One should observe what the dominant players in the market are actually doing. With Trump's emphasis on low interest rates and the Federal Reserve's (invisible QE) RMP repurchase of Treasury bonds, along with the Bank of Japan's future more accommodative monetary policy, Lu Ge predicts that once the market digests the short-term impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on liquidity, the crypto market will soon usher in a retaliatory rebound, and this time will not be too long.
The current market trend is filled with confusion, and this confusion is often one of the key factors before opportunities arise. When everyone strongly believes that the crypto market will continue to rise and experiences crazy FOMO, it is often also a signal of a temporary peak.
The crypto market is highly volatile. Most of the time it is in decline, a small portion of the time it is consolidating in a downward trend, and very little time is spent on rising. So to make big money, only a small probability of those who take the risk and buy before the rise can succeed.
People who incur losses often pursue quick wealth in the short term, trying to double their investments through various means. But this is not a true shortcut, as they often lack the necessary skills and conditions, and even violate the laws of development. Making money in the crypto market relies on great wisdom, while losing money comes from small cleverness. Respecting the laws of development, staying grounded, and accumulating to reach explosive opportunities is the essence of success.#BTC走势分析 #加密市场反弹
At the end of the article, it is still the case that if you don't understand, just ask, especially for contract users.
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