The market is once again playing investors' favorite game: what is already priced in. And here’s the paradox - Bitcoin is trading today as if the world is heading into a recession. Not tomorrow, not next year, but right now. The level of pessimism is the same as during the COVID times and the FTX crash along with the tightening of the Fed.
If we translate this into human language, it creates a strange picture: the global economy has already started to accelerate due to the easing of monetary policy in recent years, while Bitcoin behaves as if there is fog and recession ahead. That is, bad news is already priced in. And even more than the bad.
This is where the interesting part begins. Bitcoin has historically been able to step over sentiment. It is sometimes too pessimistic, sometimes too optimistic. And the biggest money, as usual, is made on the divergence between perception and reality.
Today is exactly such a moment. Real macro indicators are starting to turn upward, while Bitcoin is stuck in a recession narrative. This is the asymmetry: the market expects the worst when the fundamentals are already improving.
The last time such a configuration was in March 2020. Shock - rebound - then a sixfold increase over nine months. Back then it was a spring-loaded market. Now the feelings are the same: the spring is compressing again. Let's see what the reality is.
