QT Stoppage ≠ Market Takeoff! Real Opportunities Must Wait Until Early Next Year
The Fed's QT stops, and the bull market is coming right away!
Recently, many people have been tempted by this statement, eager to rush into the market. But hold on, we need to clarify this issue and not get misled by the hype.
Looking back at the QT cycle in 2019, even though it officially stopped, the Fed's balance sheet seemed to have not hit the brakes properly and continued to shrink for several weeks until the market truly bottomed out.
This time is likely to be similar; although it was officially announced yesterday that the balance sheet reduction has stopped, the balance sheet may still decline for a while, and the real turnaround may have to wait until early 2026.
It’s like a reservoir; it doesn’t fill up immediately, but first, the leak must be plugged.
This time, the QT stagnation feels more like the Fed providing the market with a calming pill — I won't continue to withdraw liquidity, but the easing policy of opening the floodgates is still a long way off.
Powell repeatedly emphasizes maintaining sufficient reserves, primarily out of concern for financial market disruptions, rather than giving the economy a boost.
Even if they buy hundreds of billions of government bonds each year afterward, faced with the current massive deficit, it's just a drop in the bucket.
For retail investors, don’t expect this news to cause an immediate market rise. Its real value lies in eliminating uncertainties hanging over the market, stabilizing emotions first.
The current price of Bitcoin has already absorbed economic pessimism; once confidence rebounds, the potential for a rebound is something to look forward to.
Artist suggests very practically: don’t chase highs, as the news landing can easily trigger emotional trading traps; be patient and wait until early next year, closely monitor whether the balance sheet restarts growth and whether there are actual rate cuts; then steadily invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum, quietly accumulating chips during the unclear market period is wise; stay away from worthless altcoins, as opportunities are always reserved for those who can hold quality assets.
The market has always speculated on expectations; now that the expectation of tightening has been fulfilled, we await signals for easing to commence.
Prepare your bullets, adjust your positions, and quietly wait for the sound of the real starting gun.
Follow Artist for key moments to accurately grasp signals, avoiding pitfalls and missing out.
