📌Core Signals
1. Bitcoin Short-term Trends
Current Price: $86,717.57 (↓5.1%)
Market Structure: The price is experiencing a significant correction, and the heat in the derivatives market is cooling down. Open Interest has decreased by 2.56% within 24 hours, indicating that a large number of positions are being liquidated.
Liquidation Warning: The upper resistance level has moved down to the psychological level of $90,000, with key support at the $85,000 area below. If this support is broken, it may trigger further declines.
Liquidation Overview: The price drop accompanied by a decrease in open interest indicates that this round of decline is primarily driven by long liquidation/passive clearing, and market leverage is being cleared.
2. Operation window
Cautious signals emerge: The average order size in the spot and futures markets shows 'retail orders', indicating that institutions have weak willingness to take positions at the current price, with the market led by retail sentiment.
Support band reference: The primary short-term support area is $85,000 - $86,000, whether this position can hold is key to judging the possibility of a rebound.
Capital differentiation: The exchange whale ratio is as high as 0.97, and caution is needed for the risk of whales unloading using retail liquidity. Meanwhile, due to the migration of Coinbase wallets, exchange reserves and flow data have been distorted since November 22, making short-term capital flows difficult to judge accurately.
3. Macro risks
Expectations for Fed rate cuts are solid: The Fed's Beige Book confirms economic stagnation, and the market's expectation probability for a rate cut in December has risen to 75%. The global easing environment provides macro support for risk assets.
Geopolitical conflict risks intensify: The confrontation between China and Japan deepens, military confrontation risks have not dissipated, raising market risk aversion. Cryptocurrencies have not followed gold and other safe-haven assets upwards, indicating the market is still waiting for clearer macro signals.
Industrial policy dynamics: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes the overseas expansion of the new energy industry, with a surge in AI hardware demand, benefiting related fields such as distributed hardware networks in the long term.
⚠ Must pay attention to events
【Tonight】 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Data: If the data is significantly below expectations (<48), it will strengthen the Federal Reserve's bets on interest rate cuts, benefiting risk assets in the long term, but may suppress market sentiment in the short term due to recession concerns.
【Continuously pay attention】 East Asia geopolitical situation: Friction between China and Japan is a potential market 'black swan'; any escalation of conflict could quickly impact global financial markets.
【On-chain monitoring】 Coinbase data recovery: Exchange flow data is distorted due to the migration of Coinbase wallets, expected to be repaired by mid-December. Before this, caution is needed in interpreting exchange capital inflow and outflow indicators.
🚀 Minimal strategy pool
Aggressive investors: Can test long positions near the support area of $85,000 - $86,000 with light positions, betting on a technical rebound. Strictly set stop-loss below $84,500, targeting a return to the range of $88,000-$90,000.
Cautious investors: It is advisable to watch and wait. The current correction trend is clear, and the market is led by retail investors; one should wait for a clear stabilization signal (such as long lower shadow candlestick or bullish engulfing pattern) at the support level before considering entry.
Short sellers: The market is digesting previous gains and waiting for macro signals to guide direction. Before tonight's ISM data release, uncertainty is high; it is advisable to remain patient and wait for the data to land and the market direction to clarify before making strategic layouts.
