$BTC

Today’s institutional options view: the market is pricing in a second test of 80k, followed by a rebound, Christmas market...

The market continues to expect a large range between 80k~94k.. Today’s hottest options trades are the 75k puts for December 5th and 26th, deep out of the money by ten thousand points, more like a defense against potential black swan or extreme washout events coming up.. (such as announcing a hawkish FOMC chair or something similar)

If it breaks below 80k, it could easily accelerate downwards.. (currently, the gamma below 80k is deeply negative, greatly amplifying volatility)

At the same time, ETF inflows are slowing down, and there is insufficient willingness for incremental capital.. No new money is entering the market..

So their conclusion is that the market is currently pricing in a path of a second test of 80k, followed by a rebound, Christmas market...

Combining with the order book, this view is still relatively supported.. A very thick order book and demand zone at 83k~80k.. can absorb some normal selling pressure and minor negative factors..

Only relatively severe negative factors and black swan events can break through 80k here.. If it breaks and doesn’t recover, it will really have to retest the April low (the weekly level bull-bear dividing line) which is also the reason many people are trading the 75k puts today..