小粉-有点牛逼版

Why did it drop tonight? This is a question that has puzzled many people. Didn't the expectation of interest rate cuts increase?

In fact, it's still a liquidity issue. We can take a look at the global market situation, which shows some initial signs:

1. The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, but the positive effects brought by this expectation seem to have been exhausted. In the financial market, apart from being optimistic about the expectation of interest rate cuts in December, there are also responses to interest rate hikes in the Japanese yen.

2. The yield on 1-year short-term bonds has slightly increased. Clearly, tonight's data has not shown more optimism in the bond market. Normally, with an increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts, the yield on 1-year short-term bonds would continue to decline, as short-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rates. The fact that it has not decreased but instead increased indicates that the market's expectation of a potential interest rate cut in December may have already played out.

3. The yields on 10-year and 30-year long-term bonds have clearly risen. If it were purely a matter of expecting future interest rate cuts, one should be buying U.S. Treasuries instead of selling them. This also implies that the current long-term bond market is not trading on the expectation of interest rate cuts.

4. There are two main factors driving the rise in long-term bond yields. Tonight's PCE data shows that although inflation did not rise in September, it still has stickiness. If there are concerns about future inflation, it would stimulate the rise in long-term bond yields.

Secondly, the expectation of interest rate hikes in the Japanese yen continues to lead to selling of U.S. Treasuries, with capital flowing back to yen assets. With U.S. interest rate cuts and Japanese interest rate hikes, the interest rate differential is narrowing rapidly, and the acceleration of arbitrage transactions closing positions will lead to a surge in yields of Japanese bonds and U.S. long-term bonds. Currently, the yield on Japanese bonds is also rising rapidly.

5. Although the three major U.S. stock indices are up and the VIX index has fallen to around 15, the Russell 2000 index is still in decline. Clearly, the short-term risk preference in the U.S. stock market is not very optimistic, even though the VIX index is in an optimistic phase.

6. In summary, the main factors currently affecting the financial market are the weakening of interest rate cut expectations, gradually shifting to expectations of interest rate hikes in the Japanese yen, and the transfer of capital liquidity, which also includes BTC. Next week, during the Asian trading phase, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be any institutional selling of BTC, similar to what happened this Monday.

$ETH ‼️Wow, the Fusaka upgrade for Ethereum is live today!🚨
Many people may not yet realize what this means for $ETH , but let's just say it's huge! The last major upgrade, Pectra, caused ETH to soar by 50% within a week, and Fusaka is even more impressive than Pectra.

Currently, Ethereum has a significant issue: L2 data congestion.

Rollups like Base, Arbitrum, OP, and zkSync all send data back to Ethereum, but now each node has to download the entire blob file to verify, which is too slow, consumes too much bandwidth, and keeps L2 transaction fees high.

Fusaka has solved this problem with a very simple method:

• First, the block capacity has increased from 45M gas to 150M gas. This directly provides Ethereum with nearly 3 times more space to handle transactions, smart contracts, and Rollup data. With more space, there are more activities, and the amount of ETH burned will also increase.

• Second, Fusaka has introduced PeerDAS. Nodes no longer need to download the complete blob file, now they only need to check some random small fragments. This reduces the burden on nodes, lowers the cost of Rollups, and allows Ethereum to handle more data without slowing down.

• Third, Fusaka has introduced Verkle Trees, making Ethereum's state smaller and easier to verify. This means faster node synchronization, lighter storage, and easier long-term operation for Ethereum.

What does this mean for regular users?

Faster confirmation speeds.

More stable gas fees.

Cheaper L2 transactions.

Less congestion during peak times.

Users do not need to make any changes; everything will run more smoothly.

Fusaka has increased capacity, lowered costs, improved data processing, and increased the burn rate. This is a deeper and more meaningful upgrade.

Starting today, Ethereum will become faster, cheaper, lighter, and more scalable, but the market seems not to realize how important this is for ETH‼️

$ETH The Day of Great Miracles is Coming Soon, Bulls Hold Tight

$BTC Bro, is this stupid K-line something that humans can play tonight?

$ZEC
How to get rich quickly? Only by shorting ZEC!!!

$TURBO The gameplay of妖币 is to chase more; the dog owner needs to first pull it to the rise list to attract new investors to come in and short.
This wave first sees the previous high of 0.0027.

$BTC

Today’s institutional options view: the market is pricing in a second test of 80k, followed by a rebound, Christmas market...

The market continues to expect a large range between 80k~94k.. Today’s hottest options trades are the 75k puts for December 5th and 26th, deep out of the money by ten thousand points, more like a defense against potential black swan or extreme washout events coming up.. (such as announcing a hawkish FOMC chair or something similar)

If it breaks below 80k, it could easily accelerate downwards.. (currently, the gamma below 80k is deeply negative, greatly amplifying volatility)
At the same time, ETF inflows are slowing down, and there is insufficient willingness for incremental capital.. No new money is entering the market..

So their conclusion is that the market is currently pricing in a path of a second test of 80k, followed by a rebound, Christmas market...

Combining with the order book, this view is still relatively supported.. A very thick order book and demand zone at 83k~80k.. can absorb some normal selling pressure and minor negative factors..

Only relatively severe negative factors and black swan events can break through 80k here.. If it breaks and doesn’t recover, it will really have to retest the April low (the weekly level bull-bear dividing line) which is also the reason many people are trading the 75k puts today..

$ETH
This market shorting makes more money than doing chicken!

$ZEC Bear market shorting always profits, established a short position in the best spot last night

The hacker who stole Brother Sun's WeChat is also amazing
You already have such great skill in stealing Brother Sun's WeChat, yet you still use such silly rhetoric. Who can be fooled by such clumsy tricks??

$SAHARA

This AI project can't hold on any longer, plummeting by 50% in a short time.

It once appeared on Builpad, allowing retail investors to make a considerable profit, and among many long-term declining altcoins, it was quite good.

$SAHARA is considered a breath of fresh air among altcoins, peaking at around 0.15. After the black swan event on October 11, it has remained around 0.08, unlike other altcoins that have dropped by 80%.

But this wave of a 50% crash clearly indicates that market makers/project parties have pulled liquidity, believing they can't make money anymore.

Welcome to the full-fledged bear market!

$TURBO
Pressing the air head, it's all about the real deal
The fees will soon rise to 2 percent

Do you think 0.003 is the peak?

$TURBO
Long position makes money while short position costs, both sides are satisfying.

Spent 10💲 on a Hainanese chicken rice
What do you think of the prices in Singapore?

$TURBO Predicting a wave, can it double?
I need to hold onto this order.

$TURBO
Just bought in and it skyrocketed, the pump and dump was actually me!
Follow me for tips on how to profit from high volatility coins!

$ETH Thanksgiving plus the weekend, the past few days are likely to be sideways again, it's impossible to pump, the institutions are all on vacation, who will buy ^_^

$ZEC Combined with the price trend of ZEC in November 2025, on-chain data, and market dynamics, there are many signals indicating that large holders are selling in phases, but there is a significant divergence in the market between bulls and bears, and a comprehensive large-scale selling trend has not yet appeared. The specific analysis is as follows:

1. Key signals related to selling: First, after the price diverges from the fundamentals, there are actions of capital withdrawal. After ZEC's price broke $500, the growth of the shield pool, which serves as core value support, has notably slowed down, while the price continues to soar, and real usage data such as daily trading volume and privacy transaction ratios are far behind the price increase. Additionally, in November, early capital and large long positions have started to reduce their holdings, for instance, the maximum long position has decreased from 60,000 coins to 55,000 coins, and some capital related to mining machines is gradually selling off. Second, technical indicators and the futures market are issuing warnings. The technical analysis shows a double evening star pattern at the top, and there are three layers of resistance in the 504 - 598 range, with on-chain data indicating a massive sell order accumulation at $598; in the futures market, extreme funding rates and price surges in the opposite direction occurred in November, and after short positions were liquidated, this kind of frenzied market that deviates from normal logic is often a window for large holders to sell, and since November 8, main funds have continuously been distributing.

2. Signs that refute comprehensive selling in the market: Institutions are still making large investments. The US company Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. not only purchased over 200,000 ZEC at a low price but also increased its stake through private financing. The proportion of European institutions' investment portfolios in ZEC has also risen from less than 1% to nearly 5%. Furthermore, ZEC has repeatedly demonstrated strong support, such as rapidly rebounding after dropping to $545 on November 18, with a single-day increase of 24%, and retail trading is active, making it difficult for large holders to sell off in large quantities at once.

In summary, ZEC is more likely to be in a state of "large holders selling in phases while pushing the price up" rather than a comprehensive liquidation. Early capital and some large whales are taking profits at high levels, but the long-term layout of institutions provides support for the price. Going forward, it is crucial to focus on whether the resistance level of $650 - $700 can be broken, as well as changes in whale addresses and the variations in open futures contracts.

James Wynn predicts $BTC will drop to $67,000 this week, on the 10th he predicted 'Bitcoin will drop to $92,000'

$BTC There are sixteen days until the next Federal Reserve meeting.
The possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut has soared to 70%.
Do family members think there will be a rate cut in December?