The giant whale Strategy holding 650,000 Bitcoins first proposes selling coins, breaking the commitment to never sell, and its market value once fell below the value of its holdings. How should this be interpreted?

MicroStrategy, holding approximately 650,000 Bitcoins, has seen its founder Michael Saylor's public commitment to 'never selling' transcend company strategy, becoming a kind of 'totem of faith' for the entire cryptocurrency market. Therefore, when the CEO publicly stated for the first time that he might sell Bitcoin under certain future conditions, the impact was nuclear-level. This is far more than a tactical adjustment for a company; it signifies that the core narrative sustaining its extremely high valuation has already collapsed.

The market immediately provided the most direct interpretation: its stock market value had once fallen below the net worth of its held Bitcoin. This means that the market is no longer willing to pay any premium for its 'Bitcoin faith' and operational capabilities, and has even begun to doubt its ability to manage assets.

In the past, investors viewed MicroStrategy's stock as a leveraged, never-depreciating Bitcoin ETF and were willing to pay a high premium. Now, the expression of 'potential selling' nullifies this 'never-depreciating' core attribute. The stock has transformed from a 'vehicle of faith' back into an ordinary company holding a large amount of Bitcoin, but facing operational risks and debt pressures, leading to a complete reconstruction of its valuation logic.

The direct pressure forcing management to relent is its convertible corporate bonds exceeding $8.2 billion. These debts are like a 'sword of Damocles':

When the stock price remains consistently below the conversion price, bondholders will not choose to convert their bonds but will demand the company to redeem in cash.

The rating agency S&P Global has issued a warning about 'liquidity risk.' Although the company urgently established a cash reserve of $1.4 billion to pay interest, this is only a stopgap measure and does not solve the issue of repaying the massive principal.

If a prolonged downturn in Bitcoin prices leads to sluggish stock prices, and the company cannot finance through other channels, then selling part of its Bitcoin to repay debt will become the only realistic choice for the company's survival. The CEO himself acknowledged that 'selling Bitcoin is not good for the entire ecosystem,' which underscores the severity of the pressure.

As the largest publicly traded entity holding about 3% of the world's circulating Bitcoin, any potential sell-off by MicroStrategy could create significant ripples:

It has shattered the market's sense of stability that 'whales only accumulate and do not sell.' If even the most steadfast holders begin to waver, it will severely undermine the confidence of other large holders and ordinary investors, potentially triggering a chain reaction of panic selling.

Moreover, if large-scale sales occur on exchanges, it will create immense selling pressure in the spot market.

Even if completed through over-the-counter (OTC) trading, this action itself will become a heavy signal for shorts to exploit, amplifying volatility through the derivatives market.

The current market is already in a fragile period of tightening global liquidity (high interest rates from the Federal Reserve and expectations of rate hikes from the Bank of Japan). MicroStrategy's 'crisis of faith' coincidentally occurs at the most sensitive moment in the market, resonating with macro headwinds and amplifying the overall fragility of the market.

Next, the market will closely monitor the following points, which will determine the direction of events:

Bitcoin price trends: This is the most critical variable. If Bitcoin can rebound strongly to over $100,000, its stock price and debt issues will significantly alleviate, reducing the risk of selling.

The company's financing capability: whether it can raise enough funds to meet its debt without selling coins through issuing new shares or other means.

Specific sell-off conditions: Focus on whether the established trigger condition of 'mNAV<1 and unable to finance' will actually be met.

Restoration of market sentiment: Investors need time to reassess and reprice a 'potentially selling Bitcoin' MicroStrategy, as its stock valuation needs to find a new balance.

This event is a painful 'stress test' in the maturation process of the crypto market. It reveals that when fervent beliefs confront harsh financial realities and macro headwinds, even the largest whales must bow to reality. The lesson for all investors is that when evaluating crypto assets, financial health, debt structure, and macro liquidity must be placed on an equal footing with technological innovation and belief narratives.