The price of Bitcoin in December is now a crucial focus, given that the market ended November on a downturn. Bitcoin has fallen more than 17% this month, breaking its usual November trend and raising questions about whether the recent recovery to 80 thousand dollars was truly the bottom.
December has a mixed historical record for Bitcoin, and the initial data for this year shows caution in both spot market flows and chain signals. This analysis examines three main areas: seasonal performance, ETF flows, and chain insights and price charts for the upcoming month.
Bitcoin's December history and what ETF flows reveal
December is generally not a strong month for Bitcoin. The average long-term return is 8.42%, but the median return is only 1.69%. The last four years also show mixed results, with three negative December months.
November brought more caution. Instead of repeating its strong seasonal pattern, Bitcoin ended the month more than 17% lower.
ETF flows reflect this caution. November closed with -$3.48 billion in net outflows in U.S. spot market ETFs. The last clear series of monthly inflows occurred between April and July.
Since then, flows have been inconsistent, and November confirmed that institutions remain defensive.
MEXC's Chief Analyst, Shawn Young, told BeInCrypto that stronger and more consistent ETF demand is essential before any significant recovery can begin:
"The most evident indicators of the next Bitcoin rally would be a resurgence in risk sentiment, better liquidity conditions, and market depth… When Bitcoin's spot market ETFs start seeing multiple days of inflows of $200 to $300 million, this could indicate that institutional allocators are returning to BTC and the next leg up is underway," he mentioned.
Hunter Rogers, co-founder of TeraHash, added that the preparation for December still looks contained, even after the November correction:
"I don't expect a highly volatile December — neither a big rally nor a big drop. A quieter month with a slow upward movement seems more realistic. If ETF flows calm down and volatility remains low, Bitcoin could have a small positive surprise. But it still seems like a repair phase," he said.
Together, the seasonal pattern and ETF flows indicate that December may remain in a tone of caution unless ETF demand increases significantly.
On-chain metrics still show weak conviction
Bitcoin's chain data still does not match what is generally expected from a confirmed bottom in December. Two main signals tell the same story: whales are still sending coins to exchanges, and long-term investors remain in distribution mode.
The Exchange Whale Ratio — which measures how much of the total inflows come from the top 10 wallets — rose from 0.32 at the beginning of this month to 0.68 on November 27.
Even after dropping to 0.53, it remains in a zone that historically reflects whales preparing to sell, not accumulate. Durable funds rarely form when this ratio remains elevated for several weeks.
The Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks the behavior of long-term investors, also remains deeply in the red. These wallets have been reducing their positions for more than six months. The last strong BTC rally only began after this indicator turned green at the end of September — a milestone that has yet to be reached again.
Until long-term investors stop sending coins back into circulation, a sustained rally becomes harder to support.
Shawn believes that a true shift only begins when long-term sellers exit the scene:
"The rally may begin when veteran sellers stop transferring coins to exchanges, whale accumulation turns positive again, and market depth starts to increase at major locations," he emphasized.
Hunter Rogers shared this view, associating any trend reversal with clearer supply behavior from miners and long-term wallets:
"When long-term investors quietly start to accumulate again, it means that supply pressure is decreasing," he mentioned.
So far, no trend has reversed. Whales continue sending coins to exchanges, and long-term investors continue distributing. Together, these indicate that Bitcoin's price in December may attempt deeper retests before any strong recovery attempt.
Bitcoin price in December: main risks and confirmations
The price of Bitcoin is now at a point where even a small movement can set the tone for December. The broader trend is still downwards, and the chart structure confirms what the ETF and on-chain data already suggest.
BTC recently fell below the lower band of a bearish flag that has been forming for weeks. This breakdown suggests a possible extension to $66,800, although the market may not reach that level immediately if liquidity remains stable.
For December, the first important line to watch is $80,400. This level acted as a recovery zone earlier this month but remains fragile.
A clean close below $80,400 opens up room for new lows, in line with what Shawn Young believes is still "a plausible liquidity sweep" before any attempt at a stronger recovery.
Here’s what he said in an exclusive excerpt, giving the market some hope as well:
"The market setup for Bitcoin suggests a liquidity sweep in a wick style rather than a prolonged breakdown," he believes.
In the rally, the structure only inverts if BTC recovers $97,100 — the midpoint of the larger flag and pole setup. A daily close above this zone would erase the bearish flag breakdown and initiate a move towards resistance near $101,600.
Hunter also pointed out that recovering higher trend levels only matters if volume increases alongside. As he put it:
"If Bitcoin holds above the breakout zone and volume improves, then the market may start treating this area as a durable floor," he mentioned.
For December, this breakout zone is between $93,900 and $97,100, which is where the chart, ETFs, and on-chain conditions need to shift from defensive to supportive.
Until these confirmations arrive, the downside remains more pronounced than the upside. A deeper retest of Bitcoin's price remains in play if ETF outflows accelerate or if whales continue sending coins to exchanges.
For now, Bitcoin's price in December starts with the OG crypto sitting between two critical walls — $80,400 as the last defensive floor, and $97,137 as the ceiling that could redefine the momentum.
The article What to Expect from Bitcoin Price in December 2025? was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
