Bitcoin entered the final month of 2025 under intense fear. Many investors gave up because they could no longer cope with the increasing losses. However, data indicates that a great opportunity is opening up.
The Bitcoin Capitulation Metric has just reached an all-time high. This development is of significant importance in the current market context.
How the Bitcoin capitulation metric suggests a great buying opportunity in December
The Bitcoin Capitulation Metric reflects the level of 'pain' that investors are facing.
Developers built this indicator using the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD). The CBD shows the total supply of tokens based on the average purchase price of each address. It also allows analysts to track changes in supply and investor sentiment over time.
When investors suffer significant losses, they often capitulate and aggressively sell their holdings. These periods usually coincide with the formation of local bottoms, helping to identify potential reversal points where supply moves from 'weak hands' to 'strong hands'.
Historical data shows that peaks in this metric (marked in red on the chart) often coincide with price lows (marked in black). This pattern appeared in the third quarter of 2024 and again in the second quarter of 2025.
Recently, the Capitulation Metric surged to its highest level ever. Many analysts are now paying close attention. They expect a strong reversal in the price of Bitcoin by the end of the year.
“The Bitcoin Capitulation Metric has just hit an all-time high! The last time this happened, the price skyrocketed by 50%. Are you ready for the next all-time high?” said analyst Vivek Sen.
Additionally, the market capitalization of stablecoins began to rise again after four consecutive weeks of decline. This renewed growth strengthens optimistic expectations. As stablecoins provide the main market liquidity, this return may signal that investors are preparing to buy the dip.
A cautious view from Peter Brandt
A challenge with this metric is the inability to identify the exact moment when a reversal will occur.
The Capitulation Metric spiked twice in the third quarter of 2024 before Bitcoin found a bottom. Three more spikes were needed in the second quarter of 2025 before the market reversed. If the metric cools down now and spikes again, the price of Bitcoin may drop further.
In his latest analysis, legendary trader Peter Brandt suggested a price increase from a bottom of $50,000 to above $200,000.
“The history of Bitcoin bull market cycles has been a story of exponential decay. Agree or not, you will have to deal with it. If the current decline leads to $50,000, the next bull market cycle should lead to $200,000 to $250,000.” – said Brandt.
Brandt emphasized the concept of 'exponential decay', where growth rates decrease exponentially over time. This trend reflects the maturation of Bitcoin as an asset.
In simpler terms, if Bitcoin reverses and enters a new high, the potential for appreciation may only reach four to five times the bottom. The market may not experience explosive gains similar to previous cycles.
The article 'Bitcoin Capitulation Metric Hits All-Time High – What Does This Mean?' was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
