I just saw two major banks (Deutsche Bank and Standard Bank) released an interesting analysis, saying that the US dollar may have some "headaches" recently and will face three potential pressures.
What are the three pressures?
In simple terms, they are three things that may happen simultaneously:
1. Tariffs or changes: The US Supreme Court may rule that previous tariff policies are illegal.
2. The Federal Reserve may change to "insiders": Trump's economic advisor Hassett, if he becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is believed to support faster interest rate cuts.
3. Japan may raise interest rates: If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates this month, the yen will strengthen, which in turn will put pressure on the dollar.
What does this have to do with the digital asset market?
The relationship lies in a common logic: when the dollar weakens, it often benefits alternative assets like Bitcoin. Because:
· When the dollar depreciates, the global dollar liquidity appears relatively loose.
· Some funds may seek assets outside of the dollar that have potentially higher returns.
Possible impact pathways
If these pressures really materialize:
1. Emotionally or as support: It will strengthen the market's expectation of a "loose" environment, which is not bad for digital assets.
2. Increased sources of volatility: The outcomes of these events are uncertain, and any minor changes may first affect the foreign exchange market before transmitting here.
3. Beware of "expectations falling through": If it turns out to be a false alarm, and the dollar rebounds, the market's optimistic sentiment may also reverse.
Reference thoughts for everyone
Facing such a complex macro situation:
· Understanding logic is more important than guessing results: The focus is not on betting which event will happen, but on understanding the "weak dollar -> risk asset preference rises" transmission chain.
· Grasp the main contradictions: Among these three, the personnel and policy trends of the Federal Reserve have the most direct and lasting impact on the market, worth paying extra attention to.
· Maintain response flexibility: In a tumultuous season, ensuring that your positions can withstand various unexpected fluctuations is never a bad thing.
In short, this is a macro background change worth noting. It does not constitute direct operational instructions but can help us better understand where market sentiment may come from.
(Opinions compiled from multiple international investment bank analyses, for reference only)