Be alert! Don't be misled by the superficial signals of "Federal Reserve rate cuts"～
Is everyone fixated on rate cuts, thinking that once the money flows, the crypto market will take off? But today's set of key signals hides the truth: long-term US Treasury prices are plummeting, with the 30-year yield hitting its highest point since September. Clearly calling for rate cuts, yet long-term US Treasuries are dropping—doesn't this operation seem increasingly odd?
In my view, this is simply the market quietly speaking the truth: those capital tycoons have been anxious for a while! They talk about "possible rate cuts," but their actions are very honest—throwing out even long-term government bonds, which are recognized as a "safe haven asset."
It's important to know that long-term government bonds fear two things most: first, inflation returning, and second, government debt becoming unmanageable. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee directly expressed opposition to rate cuts, citing high inflation and ambiguous economic data, which is essentially laying the worries on the table.
For us crypto players, this is definitely not just a minor fluctuation!
The logic has changed: stop believing in the old routine of "rate cuts = bull market." What the market fears most now is not rate hikes, but the ghost of "stagflation" reappearing—no improvement in the economy, yet prices cannot come down. In this environment, Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative may be activated again, but its connection with traditional finance will become more complex.
Risks are quietly escalating: the divergence among the big players on policy is growing, meaning that the subsequent market will only be more turbulent, and any economic data might trigger severe fluctuations. Especially for friends using high leverage, a sudden fluctuation could lead to immediate exit—do not let your guard down.
Here are some practical suggestions for everyone:
Do not blindly chase highs: any short-term rally driven by rate cut news may be full of traps.
Hold onto core spot: ignore the noise in the market, focus on Bitcoin as digital gold; its core value in countering fiscal risks and inflation pressures is enough.
Prepare your bullets in advance: if the market experiences panic selling due to this "truth exposure," that would be the right time to be greedy against the trend.
