This week, global financial markets welcome the central bank's 'Super Week', with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting undoubtedly being the core focus. Although the market has priced in an 87.4% probability of a rate cut, a 25 basis point reduction is almost a certainty, investors are generally wary that this rate cut may come with hawkish signals, evolving into a 'hawkish rate cut'. Prior to the decision's implementation, market volatility has quietly emerged, with cautious sentiment continuing to spread.
The US stock and bond markets adjusted simultaneously, with sensitive sectors coming under pressure first.
On Monday, US stocks weakened across the board, with the Dow Jones down 0.33%, the S&P 500 index down 0.30%, and the Nasdaq slightly retreating by 0.17%. Interest rate-sensitive sectors became the main force of adjustment, with funds temporarily retreating before the Federal Reserve's policy implementation, as risk aversion dominated the short-term trading rhythm.
Rate cuts ≠ easing! Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve conceal variables.
The market is closely watching subsequent policy guidance: Will the policy statement emphasize the stickiness of inflation? Will the latest dot plot raise future interest rate expectations? Will Powell downplay the possibility of further rate cuts in the press conference? These details will directly impact the future direction of the market.
Some analysts point out that the current economy exhibits 'stagflation' characteristics—high inflation coupled with slowing employment growth, which has led to rare divisions within the Federal Reserve. If this meeting sees multiple dissenting votes, market volatility may further escalate, and confusion in policy signals could trigger a repricing of funds.
The yen's exchange rate plummeted, and the Bank of Japan's rate hike plan may be delayed due to the strong earthquake.
A sudden 7.6 magnitude earthquake in Japan triggered a tsunami warning, instantly impacting the foreign exchange market, with the USD/JPY rate climbing to 155.97. If the damages from the disaster continue to expand, the Bank of Japan's planned rate hike next week will likely be postponed, and the policy focus may shift to post-disaster reconstruction and economic support.
Global central banks are collectively cautious, with most choosing to hold steady.
Aside from the Federal Reserve, several central banks, including those in Australia, Switzerland, and Canada, will also hold monetary policy meetings this week. The market generally expects these central banks to maintain current interest rate levels, highlighting a cautious wait-and-see attitude amid rising global economic uncertainty.
Multiple factors intertwine, and market sensitivity escalates.
European stock markets edged lower, the euro remains under pressure, and European Central Bank officials have even signaled that there may be a 'subsequent rate hike'; combined with external variables such as geopolitical situations and oil price fluctuations, the global market is at a critical window of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Conclusion: The real test comes after the decision.
Although rate cuts have become a consensus in the market, the Federal Reserve's policy wording and stance are key. Combined with the impact of the earthquake in Japan, the divergence in global central bank policies, and geopolitical disturbances, current market sensitivity has significantly increased. Any signals that exceed expectations could trigger a new round of market fluctuations, and the post-decision trend is worth close attention.#加密市场观察 #美股2026预测 $BTC
