浅墨分析师

Tonight, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is about to take place, and many friends are concerned: Will there be a rate cut this time? Can the crypto market welcome good news after the rate cut?

In fact, everyone can clarify one point first - the current market is already in a rate cut cycle. This is not just a short-term benefit brought by a single rate cut; the subsequent continuous rate cut actions will provide ongoing positive support to the market. When the rate cut cycle officially comes to an end, the overall rhythm of our market will likely adjust accordingly~

Moreover, this rate cut has a different aspect compared to previous ones: this is the first rate cut after halting the balance sheet reduction! Halting the balance sheet reduction means no longer withdrawing liquidity from the market. Now, with a rate cut added, if tonight's meeting can also announce an expansion of the balance sheet (equivalent to injecting funds into the market), that would be a wonderful thing for the market!~#加密市场反弹 $BTC
$ETH

Japan suddenly raises interest rates, triggering huge waves in the global leveraged market! The arbitrage feast that has lasted for twenty years is about to be forcefully ended.

At the end of November 2025, the Bank of Japan dropped a bombshell on the global market with the statement, "considering a rate hike in December." Within just a few days, the Nikkei index plummeted over 1000 points in a single day, the yen strengthened significantly, and bond yields soared to new highs not seen since 2008—global markets were instantly thrown into severe turmoil.

This is not just an ordinary market adjustment, but a precise disassembly of the "yen arbitrage trade." Over the past twenty years, countless investors have borrowed yen at nearly zero cost, exchanged them for dollars, and poured into various high-yield assets such as U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and emerging market assets. The interest rate spread combined with leverage magnified returns, while risks accumulated to the extreme.

Behind the data, a chain of liquidations is erupting comprehensively:

- The Nikkei index quickly fell about 6% from its recent peak;
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- Crypto assets saw a significant drop of 8% in a single day, with related leveraged positions in Asia facing consecutive liquidations;
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- The market estimates that the scale of funds related to yen arbitrage could reach hundreds of billions of dollars, and once the trend reverses, half of the value could evaporate instantly.

When Japan slightly raised interest rates last July, nearly $200 billion in arbitrage positions were forcefully closed. This time, the Bank of Japan is obviously serious—inflation has exceeded standards for 41 consecutive months, and synchronized increases in wages and prices provide real support for this rate hike.

The era of cheap global funds is accelerating its end. The tightening of yen liquidity means that Japanese institutions will shrink their overseas investment scale, leading to a decrease in demand for U.S. Treasuries, which may further push up global interest rates. Emerging markets that rely on hot money inflows are about to face the impact of capital withdrawal.

For China, the turmoil in external markets is both a test and an opportunity. As long as it maintains exchange rate stability and prevents asset bubbles, RMB assets are expected to become a safe haven for global funds. However, for ordinary people, the reality is particularly clear: the old path of seeking high returns through borrowing cheap funds is no longer viable. #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 $ETH

Early morning raid! The Federal Reserve's lightning decision ignites the market. Can ETH break through 10,000 points?

Family, who understands! At 2 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve broke a 40-year tradition to hold a temporary closed-door meeting, finalizing key decisions in just one hour! This unconventional move has shaken global capital, and the Web3 sector is boiling overnight; no one can sleep peacefully tonight!

Having delved into Federal Reserve policies and the digital asset market for eight years, this abnormal signal is definitely not simple. The interest rate cut game has reached a fever pitch, with increasing divergence between the 50 basis point and 75 basis point camps, and market betting has reached record levels, indicating a strong signal of liquidity changes; $29.4 billion of "smart money" has made early layouts, and larger scale liquidity support is brewing; the Federal Reserve held closed-door meetings for two consecutive days, with unusual movements in the repurchase market and institutions making concentrated adjustments, clearly responding to potential risks; and the "one-hour decision" operation highlights the urgency of the approaching risks.

The market linkage script feels familiar! In pre-market trading for US stocks, blockchain mining-related companies and Web3 ecological related sectors are collectively in the green, with movements highly consistent with those prior to the last market rally. The classic logic of "stock market warming up, Web3 taking over" has long been validated; now that the direction of funds is clear, we are just waiting for the ecosystem to step up.

ETH's attempt to break 10,000 points is not just talk; three key supporting logic are solid. First, as the leader of public chains, its ecological expansion and technological iteration continue to advance, with staking rewards steadily increasing and fundamentals solid; second, the key upgrade in December has been continuously tracked since March, and post-upgrade, on-chain transaction fees will be significantly reduced, likely activating a DApp ecological explosion; third, the early layout of institutional funds has become an industry consensus, and the movement of "smart money" releases clear signals.

But it is essential to remind of the risks; survival in the Web3 market comes first. Internal policy divergences within the Federal Reserve still exist, and the risk of a pivot is always present; do not blindly follow the trend; it is also important to be wary of the market rule of "good news leads to a correction"; high-leverage operations require caution. Strictly control positions and hold onto core assets is the key, not wasting opportunities while also leaving a safe exit for oneself.

This wave of market is a typical case of "seeking wealth in danger"; we need to be smart trend followers rather than blind buyers! We will continue to track the Federal Reserve's policy direction and ETH on-chain data, providing analysis at the first opportunity. #ETH走势分析 $ETH
$BTC

Breaking! Whales collectively signal "moving"; what will Bitcoin do next?\n \nRecently, a set of data has quietly drawn attention: the proportion of whale funds on mainstream trading platforms has suddenly skyrocketed, with the inflow of Bitcoin on a leading platform approaching this year's peak.\n \nIn simple terms, many large holders with substantial chips are transferring Bitcoin to trading platforms—this logic is straightforward; it is highly likely they are preparing to cash out.\n \nLooking back at market patterns, every time whales concentrate their asset transfers, the market often experiences fluctuations and adjustments. This time is no exception; Bitcoin has clearly faced resistance when hitting key resistance levels recently, with visible upward selling pressure increasing.\n \nA glance at historical data reveals that after similar peaks in fund inflow, the market typically enters a consolidation period, and may even experience a phase of pullback. But this is by no means a signal for the end of a bull market; it resembles the market digesting this portion of "potential sell orders" to build momentum for future movements.\n \nSo how should retail investors respond?\n \nFirst, don’t panic, and definitely don’t blindly follow the trend! If you already hold positions, consider taking partial profits to secure some gains; if you haven't entered the market yet, there's no need to rush to chase highs; patiently wait for clearer directional signals from the market.\n \nRemember, whale movements are merely reference indicators for the market and do not guarantee that prices will drop, but they remind us: there is no forever upward trend; fluctuations and pullbacks are the norm in the market.\n \nCurrently, Bitcoin is still trying to stabilize at key price levels, and it is highly likely to continue maintaining a consolidation pattern in the short term. Keeping a calm mindset, managing your positions well, and not letting short-term volatility disrupt your trading rhythm is key. #巨鲸 #ETH走势分析 $ETH \n

Tonight is the ultimate showdown! The Federal Reserve's balance sheet data is about to be released, and the crypto market is bracing for a major liquidity test!

In just a few hours, the Federal Reserve will announce critical balance sheet data—right now, the entire crypto space is holding its breath, with everyone's eyes firmly fixed on this core report that can shake the market!

Haven't you noticed? We've already entered a 'volatile mode', with rises and falls switching back and forth non-stop. This is not ordinary market fluctuation but a final position adjustment by traders before the data is released, definitely the calm before the storm!

Remember this key time: 4:30 PM EST! This set of numbers is anything but dull macro data; it directly relates to the 'lifeblood' of market liquidity! In the crypto field, liquidity is as crucial as air—whether the Federal Reserve tightens funds or releases liquidity directly determines whether the subsequent market will face pressure and retreat or surge!

Now Wall Street analysts are closely monitoring three key ranges, each hiding different market scenarios:
🚨 Warning Signal: Total assets breaking through $6.6 trillion? This means liquidity may tighten! Bitcoin is likely to lead a downturn, and mid-small coins may follow suit; everyone should be prepared for risk control!
😰 Volatile Scenario: Stuck between $6.5 trillion and $6.6 trillion? The market must maintain a 'bull-bear game mode'! Fluctuations back and forth, with both sides pulling and tugging, testing the mindset!
⚠️ Extreme Situation: If it drops below $6.5 trillion? This could indicate unusual movements in the financial system's liquidity! In this case, crypto market volatility will escalate significantly, making the trend difficult to predict and the operational difficulty maxed out!

Behind these numbers lies the 'weather vane' of the Federal Reserve's subsequent policies—what follows is interest rate cuts, maintaining the status quo, or continued tightening, and this report hides crucial clues!

Global funds have entered a 'high alert state'; everyone knows this data could instantly reverse market sentiment, triggering massive capital reallocation. The impact of liquidity often catches the market off guard, leaving no time for a reaction!

The final countdown begins, everyone buckle up! The next big market wave is likely to explode in full force the moment the data is released! #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 $BTC
$ETH

Is everyone in the market focused on what the Federal Reserve will do next? A key figure has suddenly spoken out, pushing interest rate cut speculation to the forefront! What's even more exciting is that this popular candidate likely to take over the Federal Reserve openly stated that a 25 basis point cut should happen next week, and Trump has been frequently hinting his approval... Is this a leak, or is there something else going on? 🤔 Let's dive into the latest developments!

Kevin Hassett, a core economic advisor to Trump and the current director of the White House National Economic Council, recently stated clearly in an interview: "The Federal Reserve should cut rates next week, and it's very likely to happen!" 📉 He specifically mentioned the cut would be 25 basis points and revealed that there is already a slowly forming consensus within the Federal Reserve on this cut.

What’s more intriguing is that, with Trump repeatedly praising him publicly during this time, the market has long been buzzing: Hassett is definitely the number one candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair! Trump even hinted at a White House event: "Maybe the future Federal Reserve chair is sitting right here today~"

However, Hassett himself has been quite low-key, repeatedly emphasizing that Federal Reserve decisions must "rely on data," and the balance between employment and inflation must also be fully considered. But anyone with a discerning eye can tell that the interest rate cut is already on the verge of happening, just waiting for the order to be given.

🌟 If Hassett really takes office, will the U.S. interest rate policy completely shift towards easing? What unusual economic signals are hidden behind Trump's personnel arrangements? Have you figured out the intricacies of this "Federal Reserve leadership change drama"?

💬 Share your thoughts in the comments: Do you think the Federal Reserve can really cut rates next week? If Hassett becomes chair, in which direction will the U.S. economy head? Come and leave your predictions! 👇#加密市场观察 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC
$ETH

Tonight, three major data shocks are coming! Retail investors in the crypto circle, don't panic, this is how to respond steadily.

Brothers, stay alert! The financial market is about to be awakened by three "data bombs" tonight, and the previously stagnant market is likely to completely surge!

First up is the challenger company layoff data at 20:30, which is a solid core indicator.
Last month, this data skyrocketed by 183%, reaching 153,000, setting the highest record for October in over 20 years, with the technology and retail industries becoming the hardest hit.
More critically, surveys indicate that nearly one-third of American companies plan to lay off workers before Christmas, which means they want to save on year-end bonuses and operational expenses.
If tonight's data blows up again, it can basically be concluded that the job market can't hold up and the economy is heading downhill; at that point, the Federal Reserve will likely have to seriously consider lowering interest rates.

Next, the initial jobless claims number will be announced at 21:30. As a high-frequency data updated weekly, it has already released warning signals—it's becoming increasingly difficult for unemployed friends to find new jobs.
If this number spikes again tonight, it will form a "double confirmation" with the layoff data, and the market will immediately crazily speculate on the expectations of an "economic recession and interest rate cuts coming soon."

The impact on the crypto circle is very direct: in the short term, the worse the data, the stronger the panic sentiment in traditional markets; this sentiment will spread quickly, and mainstream crypto assets will likely be under pressure;
but in the long run, this may instead force the Federal Reserve to accelerate the shift towards easing. Once the market digests the panic and starts to position for next year's liquidity influx, risk assets like crypto may experience a wave of retaliatory liquidity rebound.

Finally, I have a practical suggestion for retail investors: don’t operate recklessly tonight! Half an hour before and after the data release, market fluctuations will be extremely severe, making it easy for both long and short positions to be liquidated.
Focus on the real-time trends of US stocks and US Treasury yields; these two are barometers of market sentiment. Once the market has digested the news, if core crypto assets can maintain key support levels, it won’t be too late to consider gradually buying on dips. #加密市场观察 $BTC
$ETH

Wake up! The continuous news from the United States has directly caused a big stir in the market. I will share the most critical points with you, all of which are hardcore content.

First, the most significant news: Interest rate cuts are highly likely to be finalized. Last night, the U.S. November employment data was released, and the results surprised the market—private sector employment directly decreased by 32,000, completely contrary to previous expectations. It seems that the U.S. economy truly has some 'insufficient confidence'; once this data was released, the market bet on a nearly 90% probability that the Federal Reserve would definitely cut interest rates next week.

Next, let's look at the major personnel changes. Reports indicate that former President Trump's team is conspiring a major adjustment in core positions, planning to promote his long-term economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, who has been advocating for 'immediate interest rate cuts', to the position of Federal Reserve Chairman.

Finally, there is a significant shift in regulatory direction. The Chairman of the U.S. SEC has clearly stated that the 'Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill' will soon be passed. Additionally, the previously delisted overseas prediction market platform Polymarket has now returned to the U.S. in compliance, and its APP is already online. Top asset management institutions like Franklin Templeton have also officially started trading their Solana spot ETF.

My view is very straightforward: A new cycle is already on the way. This is not just a gimmick for trading coins, but a solid 'policy-driven cycle'. The expectation of interest rate cuts injects liquidity into the market, personnel arrangements release a clear attitude, and the implementation of legislation and the launch of compliant products give cryptocurrency assets a legitimate name. The combination of these three forces essentially aims to fully integrate cryptocurrency assets into the U.S. financial system framework. Don't get tangled up in the fluctuations of short-term prices anymore; those are just irrelevant noise.

How should retail investors respond?
Embrace 'institutionally recognized assets': Stop fixating on niche assets and pay more attention to varieties included in investment portfolios by top institutions like Franklin; the inflow of real capital cannot be deceived.
Identify compliant 'track opportunities': Just like Polymarket's smooth return to the U.S. market, there must be compliant logic supporting it. Think more about which tracks and platforms can leverage this regulatory shift to become the core channels for future capital inflows and outflows. #加密市场观察 $BTC
$ETH

Besant's Triple Hit! Market Alert at Full Volume💣

1️⃣ The Federal Reserve Power Shuffle Begins
The Secretary of the Treasury directly stated: Stop treating the Federal Reserve Chair as the "rate decision-maker"! He made it clear that the Chair is just one of the voting members, with real decision-making power held by the Board and the regional Federal Reserves. This statement is clearly paving the way for subsequent monetary policy adjustments, and the next Chair candidate will likely be revealed after the Christmas holiday, so global markets better hold onto the steering wheel!

2️⃣ Regional Fed Faces “Residency Threshold”
A tough move has landed! Besant proposed that future regional Federal Reserve Chairs must reside in their jurisdiction for at least 3 years, and directly pointed out that 3 current Chairs do not meet this requirement. This operation will likely restructure the power dynamics within the Federal Reserve, is the traditional Wall Street parachute appointment model about to end? Currently, the Atlanta Fed Chair has already stepped down, and the chain reaction has begun!

3️⃣ Tariff Measures to Become “Normalized”
The most explosive statement was: “Even if the Supreme Court loses, we can rely on other clauses to rebuild equivalent tariffs!” Besant revealed several clauses such as 301 and 232, stating that tariff tools will be used long-term. The global trade system is about to face turmoil again; will digital assets become the dark horse of the risk-averse track once more?

4️⃣ Private Credit Sounding the “Risk Alarm”
Besant strongly criticized the private credit sector: “During economic downturns, it is most likely the first to blow up!” He stated that excessive regulation is pushing credit business into gray areas, hinting at a possible loosening of bank regulations, but caution is needed with risk transfer— the next crisis may very well start with shadow banking!🌪️

Cryptocurrency Market Impact Insights:
· Intensifying power struggle within the Federal Reserve → Rising policy uncertainty → High volatility assets become more attractive
· Expectations for long-term tariffs heating up → Risk aversion sentiment in traditional markets fermenting → Value preservation attributes of digital assets becoming prominent
· Risk warnings in the credit market released → Changes in liquidity structure → Growing demand for alternative investments in crypto assets

(Content compiled from Besant's latest public statements, market chain reactions are still ongoing)#加密市场观察 $BTC
$ETH
$BNB

I just saw two major banks (Deutsche Bank and Standard Bank) released an interesting analysis, saying that the US dollar may have some "headaches" recently and will face three potential pressures.

What are the three pressures?
In simple terms, they are three things that may happen simultaneously:

1. Tariffs or changes: The US Supreme Court may rule that previous tariff policies are illegal.
2. The Federal Reserve may change to "insiders": Trump's economic advisor Hassett, if he becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is believed to support faster interest rate cuts.
3. Japan may raise interest rates: If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates this month, the yen will strengthen, which in turn will put pressure on the dollar.

What does this have to do with the digital asset market?
The relationship lies in a common logic: when the dollar weakens, it often benefits alternative assets like Bitcoin. Because:

· When the dollar depreciates, the global dollar liquidity appears relatively loose.
· Some funds may seek assets outside of the dollar that have potentially higher returns.

Possible impact pathways
If these pressures really materialize:

1. Emotionally or as support: It will strengthen the market's expectation of a "loose" environment, which is not bad for digital assets.
2. Increased sources of volatility: The outcomes of these events are uncertain, and any minor changes may first affect the foreign exchange market before transmitting here.
3. Beware of "expectations falling through": If it turns out to be a false alarm, and the dollar rebounds, the market's optimistic sentiment may also reverse.

Reference thoughts for everyone
Facing such a complex macro situation:

· Understanding logic is more important than guessing results: The focus is not on betting which event will happen, but on understanding the "weak dollar -> risk asset preference rises" transmission chain.
· Grasp the main contradictions: Among these three, the personnel and policy trends of the Federal Reserve have the most direct and lasting impact on the market, worth paying extra attention to.
· Maintain response flexibility: In a tumultuous season, ensuring that your positions can withstand various unexpected fluctuations is never a bad thing.

In short, this is a macro background change worth noting. It does not constitute direct operational instructions but can help us better understand where market sentiment may come from.

(Opinions compiled from multiple international investment bank analyses, for reference only)
#加密市场观察 #特朗普加密新政

The market has finally warmed up! Last night's trend was too fierce, with Bitcoin surging back to 92,000 in one night, and Ethereum firmly standing back at the 3,000 mark. This wave of increase is definitely not just a simple recovery from overselling; behind it lie several substantial signals that we need to clarify the core logic.

The number one contributor to this rebound is undoubtedly the once most "conservative" giant in the crypto field - Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset management company. Recently, it suddenly announced that it would open trading channels for BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF to its 8 million clients.

How significant is this? It's equivalent to crypto assets receiving a "pass" from the traditional financial conservatives. The prejudice barrier that previously stood between the two has been smashed open. Even Bank of America has now loosened its stance, suggesting that clients can allocate 1%-4% of their positions to digital assets.

On the other hand, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's "easing" has reached its peak. Almost everyone now believes that a rate cut in December is a sure thing; more importantly, the news of the Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening has officially landed.

Although the actual effect of this easing may not manifest until early next year, the capital market has always been about "expectations leading the way"; this expectation itself is the strongest catalyst for the increase. Remember the last time the Federal Reserve paused its tightening cycle? The market surged directly by 17% within three weeks; history's shadow is worth pondering.

My judgment is clear: don’t treat this rebound as an ordinary market correction; it is more like a preheating signal for a new round of institutional capital entering the market in large volumes.

How should retail investors operate?
Don't chase after highs when the price goes up, and don't hesitate to miss critical windows; grasping the rhythm is key.
Position management always comes first: if you were previously stuck, you can finally take a breath, but don’t think about going all in immediately; risk should always come first.
Stay alert: there is a potential risk point ahead - the Bank of Japan may suddenly raise interest rates in December. This operation is likely to bring a temporary impact to the market; if a correction occurs as a result, it will instead leave a second opportunity for those who haven’t boarded yet. #加密市场回调 #加密市场观察 $BTC
$ETH

The Federal Reserve makes a significant shift! The world's largest "liquidity pump" has officially stopped!

This is definitely an epic signal! It has just been confirmed that the Federal Reserve's QT (Quantitative Tightening) has officially come to an end. In simple terms, the "big pump" that has been crazily sucking liquidity back from the global market over the past two years has finally hit the shutdown button!

Looking back at why the market has been so difficult these past two years? The core reason lies with this pump—it has continuously tightened USD liquidity, resulting in less and more expensive money in the market. The digital asset sector has been hit hardest, struggling to breathe under pressure, and now the tightest "tightening spell" that has been hanging over the market has finally been lifted!

But here I must remind everyone: this is not an immediate signal for a big increase! "Shutdown" and "reverse liquidity release" are completely different matters. The market will first slowly digest this expectation, and volatility will likely be particularly intense. Before clear signals of easing come out, one must be wary of a turbulent market that could hit both bulls and bears!

The key node for the cycle switch has arrived, and the core logic of the market is about to change. Are you prepared to respond? Let's discuss your views in the comments! #加密市场观察 $BTC
$ETH

Prohibiting political donations in cryptocurrency: can the UK ensure election security without worries? Three major real loopholes cannot be concealed!

The UK government is brewing a ban on political donations in cryptocurrency, with the intention of safeguarding election security. This consideration is commendable, but in practical execution, it is likely to fall into the awkward situation of 'the ideal is full, but the reality is thin.'

The core bottom line of political donations is 'transparency and traceability,' while the anonymous nature of cryptocurrency directly contradicts this principle. Allowing it to flow into the political donation field is tantamount to leaving a 'backdoor' for foreign forces to interfere in elections. The incident of social media infiltration during the 2016 US elections may not be repeated. As a long-established democratic country, it is reasonable for the UK to prioritize election security, and issuing a ban can be seen as a proactive defense against potential risks.

However, the problem is that this 'ban line' may not be solidly established, and three major real loopholes cannot be ignored:
First, it is technically difficult to achieve a complete block. The anonymity technology of cryptocurrency is constantly iterating and upgrading, and regulatory agencies must continuously invest in upgrading monitoring methods, which could become prohibitively expensive over time; second, the industry may trigger a strong backlash. The UK is currently striving to attract cryptocurrency enterprises, and if regulatory policies are too strict, it could drive talent and capital to friendlier jurisdictions like Singapore and Switzerland; third, there is a lack of international coordination. Relying solely on unilateral actions by the UK cannot form a global regulatory norm and may instead leave itself passive in the formulation of rules in the cryptocurrency field.

Rather than a blanket ban, it is better to implement precise policies: for mainstream cryptocurrency varieties, require donors to complete real-name verification through compliant trading channels to ensure the traceability of funding sources; for cryptocurrencies with strong privacy attributes or decentralized platforms, explicitly prohibit them from being used for political donations while enhancing technical monitoring efforts; for political parties receiving relevant donations, mandate the public disclosure of collection addresses and all transaction records, accepting public supervision throughout.

As for certain political parties willing to accept cryptocurrency donations, it is more out of a need for political fundraising and ideological promotion, rather than a sincere support for the industry. $BTC #加密市场回调

Is the Federal Reserve about to change its leader? Trump privately finalizes candidates, and the cryptocurrency market is about to move!

This morning, I came across a significant piece of news: a source known as the 'mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve' revealed that Trump has quietly been in talks with the next Federal Reserve chairman candidates, with the nomination list expected to be announced before Christmas!

The current situation is that Trump says 'it's already decided,' but he is still hesitating—one popular candidate is his old partner Hassett, and the other is former Federal Reserve governor Warsh. But no matter who is ultimately chosen, the core logic is clear: the next Federal Reserve leader is likely to align more closely with Trump's policy direction than the current one.

What does this mean for us in the cryptocurrency space? Let's think about it: if the new chairman is indeed more 'cooperative,' will the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts be more significant and quicker next year? Once the liquidity gate opens, do we even need to mention the trends of Bitcoin and mainstream crypto assets? History has long told us: the stronger the expectation of monetary easing, the higher the activity in the crypto market, and the greater the probability of a market rally.

However, I must remind you that the news has not yet been finalized, and variables may arise at any moment. After all, Trump is known for making reversals; even if he changes the candidate at the last moment, it wouldn’t be surprising. So, we retail investors should not act impulsively; don't think about 'going all in,' and don't panic with market emotions.

Here are a few practical suggestions:
Hold tight to your core positions; don't easily sell mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and don't let short-term fluctuations force you out;
Keep some funds as 'bullets'; if the market experiences a short-term pullback after the official announcement, it could be a good opportunity to buy in gradually;
Don't blindly bet on rumors; those small coins that rise based on speculation should not be followed.

Overall, with major news approaching, it’s important to stay clear-headed. Hold your spot, and patiently wait for the winds to change. Once the new Federal Reserve chairman is officially announced, a new round of market activity in the crypto space is likely to quietly begin.
#加密市场回调 #加密市场观察 $BTC

Emergency Warning: The probability of the Bank of Japan's action in December surges, and global markets face a liquidity test

Recent market data shows that the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has risen to 76%. This change could trigger a chain reaction in global financial markets. The core risk is that approximately $14 trillion in yen carry trade funds may face repatriation pressure, with risk assets, especially the cryptocurrency market, potentially experiencing significant impact.

Current Market Performance

· Major cryptocurrencies have declined from their highs, with prices falling below $86,000.
· Recent spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of funds, totaling about $2.8 billion in the past month.
· Market sentiment indicators show rising levels of panic, and the negative funding rate suggests that the short-term overheating situation is adjusting.

Risk Focus: Yen Carry Trade Shift
If the Bank of Japan initiates the interest rate hike process, the long-standing carry trade model of borrowing low-cost yen to invest in high-yield overseas assets may reverse. Investors may need to sell assets like the dollar and convert back to yen to repay loans, which could trigger extreme price volatility in various risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Recent Key Points

1. Bank of Japan's December policy meeting: Whether to start raising interest rates will become a short-term barometer.
2. Federal Reserve's policy direction this month: Particularly pay attention to whether its interest rate expectation "dot plot" will delay the timing of rate cuts.

Operational Suggestions

· Strictly control position ratios and use leverage cautiously.
· Closely monitor changes in capital flows and sentiment indicators.
· Before key policy decisions are announced, a defensive and wait-and-see approach is recommended. #加密市场回调 #比特币波动性 $BTC