Emergency Warning: The probability of the Bank of Japan's action in December surges, and global markets face a liquidity test
Recent market data shows that the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has risen to 76%. This change could trigger a chain reaction in global financial markets. The core risk is that approximately $14 trillion in yen carry trade funds may face repatriation pressure, with risk assets, especially the cryptocurrency market, potentially experiencing significant impact.
Current Market Performance
· Major cryptocurrencies have declined from their highs, with prices falling below $86,000.
· Recent spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of funds, totaling about $2.8 billion in the past month.
· Market sentiment indicators show rising levels of panic, and the negative funding rate suggests that the short-term overheating situation is adjusting.
Risk Focus: Yen Carry Trade Shift
If the Bank of Japan initiates the interest rate hike process, the long-standing carry trade model of borrowing low-cost yen to invest in high-yield overseas assets may reverse. Investors may need to sell assets like the dollar and convert back to yen to repay loans, which could trigger extreme price volatility in various risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Recent Key Points
1. Bank of Japan's December policy meeting: Whether to start raising interest rates will become a short-term barometer.
2. Federal Reserve's policy direction this month: Particularly pay attention to whether its interest rate expectation "dot plot" will delay the timing of rate cuts.
Operational Suggestions
· Strictly control position ratios and use leverage cautiously.
· Closely monitor changes in capital flows and sentiment indicators.
· Before key policy decisions are announced, a defensive and wait-and-see approach is recommended. #加密市场回调 #比特币波动性 $BTC
