📌Core Signal

1. Bitcoin's short-term trend

Current Price: $92,813.92 (↑7.03%) Market Structure: Price has strongly broken out with increased volume, standing above the psychological level of $90,000, breaking the previous consolidation pattern, and the short-term market structure has shifted from oscillation to a clear bullish trend.

Liquidation Warning: The upper liquidation zone is looking at the psychological level of $95,000 and the historical high of $100,000; the key support below has moved up to the $90,000 level, and if it falls below this, it will trigger long stop-losses.

Liquidation Overview: The sharp rise in the past 24 hours has led to large-scale liquidations of short positions (short squeeze), becoming one of the main drivers of price increases, with the market dominated by bullish sentiment.

2. Operational Window

FOMO sentiment is heating up: Rapid price increases have led to obvious chasing emotions (FOMO) in the market, and the greed index is expected to soar significantly, with technical indicators (such as RSI) entering overbought territory, increasing the risk of chasing high.

Support zone reference: The first support area is $90,000 - $91,000 (breakthrough neckline); if there is a deep pullback, strong support is around $88,000 (upper edge of the previous consolidation platform).

Overheated funding: As prices rise, funding rates are expected to rise rapidly, and open interest (OI) is simultaneously expanding, indicating that leveraged longs are accumulating. The market's internal demand for cleaning up leverage is accumulating, and volatility may intensify at any time.

3. Macroeconomic Risks

Eurozone data is favorable: Eurozone service PMI data is better than expected, which may boost the euro and suppress the dollar index, providing short-term benefits for BTC priced in dollars.

Tech stock bubble warning: Rockefeller International's chairman warns of an AI bubble, and if tech stocks face pressure and pull back, it may tighten liquidity in the risk asset market, leading to selling pressure in the crypto market.

Risk aversion sentiment differentiation: Recent gold demand has surged, indicating rising risk aversion sentiment in traditional markets. This influx of funds may compete with BTC, but could also flow into BTC due to its 'digital gold' properties, forming support.

⚠ Must Watch Events

[Tonight 21:15] U.S. November ADP Employment Data: Market expectations are extremely divergent (-50,000 to +50,000). If the data far exceeds expectations (e.g., > +50,000), it may suppress December rate cut expectations, triggering a pullback in risk assets.

[Medium-term Risks] Federal Reserve personnel changes: Uncertainty regarding Chairman Powell's position has intensified policy path risks, which may trigger market panic and intense volatility in the future.

[Geopolitical Risks] Black Sea Situation: Putin threatens to cut off Ukraine's maritime passage, and if it triggers severe fluctuations in energy prices, it may impact global risk asset sentiment.

🚀 Minimalist Strategy Pool

Radicals: The current price chasing risk is extremely high. You can wait for the price to pull back to the $90,000 - $91,000 support zone to take a light long position, betting on a second rise. Strictly set the stop loss below $89,500, with a target looking at $95,000.

Conservatives: Maintain a wait-and-see approach to avoid FOMO. Wait for the price to effectively test the $90,000 support level (if it comes back without breaking and stabilizes), and only consider entering the market in batches after confirming a valid breakout.

Empty Position Holders: The market is in a phase of accelerated sentiment after a breakout, facing the release of key ADP data, with extremely high uncertainty. Holding cash and waiting for data to materialize and market sentiment to calm down before making decisions is the best strategy.