#美股预测 $BTC Combining the pre-market dynamics of December 3 and various influencing factors, the US stock market is likely to continue its trend of slight upward movement with fluctuations. However, sector differentiation will still exist, and caution is needed regarding short-term volatility caused by key data. The specific analysis is as follows:

1. Pre-market futures provide positive signals: As of around 8 PM on December 3, the three major US stock index futures rose collectively, with Dow futures up 0.23%, S&P 500 index futures up 0.20%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.18%, laying a relatively optimistic foundation for the US stock market opening that evening. At the same time, some individual stocks performed well in pre-market trading, such as Micron Technology, which rose over 11% pre-market, and Chinese concept stocks in the semiconductor sector, such as UMC and ASE, also saw increases of more than 2%.

2. Favorable factors provide support: On the previous trading day, the three major US indexes had already closed higher amidst fluctuations, and both technology stocks and the cryptocurrency market saw a synchronized rebound, with Bitcoin breaking through the $90,000 mark, indicating an increase in market risk appetite. Trump hinted at the dovish inclination of Hassett, who may be the next Federal Reserve chairman, leading the market to bet that the Federal Reserve will accelerate easing measures in 2026, and the expectations for interest rate cuts support US stock valuations. The semiconductor and technology sectors showed strong performance, with individual stocks like Intel leading the gains, and the semiconductor ETF rose over 1% in pre-market trading, driving technology stocks broadly higher and becoming an important force in pulling the index up.

3. Potential risks may suppress gains: During the previous rise of the three major indexes, the volume did not effectively expand, and the rebound of the Dow lacked sufficient funding support. Overall market activity is insufficient to drive the index to rise significantly. That evening, the US November ADP employment data and services PMI data will be announced. If the employment data is too strong, it may exacerbate the divergence regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, or if the services PMI data exceeds expectations, it could raise concerns about economic overheating, both of which may lead to a short-term correction in the US stock market. The energy and biotechnology sectors have seen significant capital outflows recently, and Chinese concept stocks have not kept pace with the previous rebound, indicating that sector differentiation may restrict the overall upward momentum of the market.