$ETH 12.4 Thursday, the analysis of Ethereum's intraday trend is currently in an extremely strong one-sided upward trend, while multiple indicators are issuing extreme overbought signals. Shorting at this position belongs to counter-trend betting corrections, with extremely high risks. It is necessary to wait for clearer top exhaustion signals and better risk-reward ratio points.
The price has broken through the previous high and is in a clear upward channel, without any large-scale top structures observed.
Shorting positions and strategies, counter-trend operations, must be cautious:
The core principle is to absolutely not chase shorts! It is necessary to wait for the price to rebound to higher resistance levels and for clear stagnation or reversal signals to enter the market. Below are the key positions for phased shorting.
1. Preferred shorting area 3230 - 3265 high-risk testing zone, based on the current pressure of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands upper track at 3237, which is also an extension resistance zone of the previous upward wave and a psychological integer level.
Observe whether there is a top divergence in MACD or RSI on the 1-hour chart. Operationally, after signals appear in this area, one can establish the first batch of short positions accounting for 30%-40% of the total planned position, with a stop loss set above the 3285 upper track, allowing for some volatility, with an initial target looking towards the 4-hour MA10 or previous platform support 3100-3120.
2. Ideal shorting area: 3300 - 3340 high risk-reward ratio gaming zone, based on a strong break above the upper track, this area is the Fibonacci extension levels like 1.618 and key psychological levels, and also a possible area of long momentum exhaustion.
Stronger reversal structures, such as a double top M pattern or multiple consecutive 4-hour candlesticks failing to hold above 3300. The 4-hour line shows a new high in price, but the top divergence structure in RSI or MACD does not show a new high.
After confirming the signal, one can conduct a second batch of increased positions accounting for 40%-50% of the total planned position, with the stop loss uniformly set at 3365. The target is a retracement to the breakout level of 3200 and around the 3100 Bollinger middle track.
3. Extreme shorting area 3400 - 3450 trend reversal gaming zone, based on historical high areas or significant psychological resistance levels. If the price reaches this point, it will face extremely strong profit-taking pressure. Only when the signal is extremely clear, use a small position accounting for 10%-20% of the total planned position for the final bet. The stop loss is set at 3480, with the target as holding a swing short position.
Bottom line thinking: If the price does not retrace and directly breaks through strongly and stabilizes above 3300, then abandon all shorting plans, as this indicates that the bullish trend exceeds expectations.
