$ETH Saturday 00:30, analysis of the market trend in the second half of the night, re-evaluating the big cycle. The middle track of the daily chart has been broken, and the medium-term trend has weakened. Any subsequent operations should mainly consider "shorting on rebounds" until the market structure fundamentally changes again.
This drop is very strong, as the price directly pierced the daily middle track at 3014, which I have mentioned multiple times as the "lifeline" and is now at 3067. The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart have opened significantly downwards, indicating that the downward trend is accelerating. The MACD histogram is very long, showing strong bearish momentum. Most notably, the RSI6 is only 7.31, which is extremely oversold, even more so than the last oversold condition.
So there is a core contradiction here: the trend is definitely downward, but short-term indicators have already dropped to the limit. This means that a stronger technical rebound than the last one could happen at any time, but after the rebound, it is likely to continue falling. Those who shorted around 3200 have active short positions now, but they should not be greedy and stubbornly hold onto the rebound; they must gradually retreat.
Absolutely do not chase shorts now; the RSI is already at 7. Chasing shorts is like running into the muzzle of a gun. If you do want to chase, you should wait for a rebound to the 3150-3180 area, where the resistance after breaking previous support is a good place to add shorts. If you want to go long, you can only take a light position between 3020-3040 for a rebound from extreme overselling, but this is against the trend and carries high risk.
So, is this a trend reversal? From the daily chart, the price breaking below the middle track at 3014 is indeed a dangerous signal, indicating that the rebound structure at the daily level may be damaged. However, the weekly chart has not weakened yet, so it is temporarily classified as a "deep correction at the daily level."
The key is whether the price can recover above 3014. In summary, users should now focus on executing profit-taking plans rather than guessing the bottom.
Recently, operations have consistently yielded significant points; on the 11th, I recommended a short position at 3270 with precise targeting. Prepare for value investment, do not miss the entry point, and ensure to have stop losses.
Key positions: Support below, psychological level at 3000, technical support at 2950 previous low extension → 2850 weekly level support.
Resistance above for rebound targets, weak resistance at 3120 - 3150, strong resistance/ideal short zone at 3180 - 3220 Trend reversal confirmation level: the price needs to stabilize above 3250, which currently seems very difficult. I hope everyone can turn profits into real account growth.
$ETH 12.11 No., Ether intraday operation analysis, considering that the price has fallen back from a high position and dropped to a key support area, directly chasing shorts carries a high risk. A more prudent strategy is to wait for the price to rebound near the resistance level before deploying short positions.
1. Shorting order area, 3260 - 3280 logic This area is a potential resistance area for the price after breaking below the previous consolidation range around 3330 and rebounding for retest. Located at the current Bollinger band middle track 3231, between the upper track 3318, it is a reasonable target for the rebound.
Specific operations: Place orders in batches around 3270 for short positions. Set the stop-loss price above 3330, such as 3340, which is above the key position where previous support turns into resistance.
Target price: First target: near the previous low of 3165. Second target: 3143 Bollinger band lower track, if broken, can look to below 3100.
Alternative aggressive strategy, if the price rebounds weakly, fails to reach the aforementioned area, but instead chooses to bear pressure near the middle track of 3230 and shows a bearish candlestick pattern, such as long upper shadow, bearish engulfing, can also consider lightly shorting at this position, but the stop-loss must be tightened, such as above 3250.
If the price directly breaks below 3143 and continues to weaken, consider chasing shorts with a small position, but the stop-loss should be placed above 3165. A strong rebound breaking through 3330 and stabilizing would pause the bearish outlook and require reassessment. Adjust specific points based on personal positions and risk tolerance.
2. If you must take a long position, you can adopt the following plan: Preferred strategy right side: Patiently wait for the price to break through and stabilize at 3231, wait for a pullback confirmation, then enter long in the 3220-3225 area. Stop-loss at 3210, target 3,280.
Alternative strategy left side, high risk: When the price touches 3160 and a 5-minute level bullish reversal pattern appears, lightly try to go long.
Stop-loss at 3138, target 3230. The current market is in a bearish-dominated adjustment period, and going long requires more patience and more rigorous signal confirmation. $BTC #美联储降息
$ETH 12.4 Thursday, the analysis of Ethereum's intraday trend is currently in an extremely strong one-sided upward trend, while multiple indicators are issuing extreme overbought signals. Shorting at this position belongs to counter-trend betting corrections, with extremely high risks. It is necessary to wait for clearer top exhaustion signals and better risk-reward ratio points. The price has broken through the previous high and is in a clear upward channel, without any large-scale top structures observed.
Shorting positions and strategies, counter-trend operations, must be cautious: The core principle is to absolutely not chase shorts! It is necessary to wait for the price to rebound to higher resistance levels and for clear stagnation or reversal signals to enter the market. Below are the key positions for phased shorting.
1. Preferred shorting area 3230 - 3265 high-risk testing zone, based on the current pressure of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands upper track at 3237, which is also an extension resistance zone of the previous upward wave and a psychological integer level.
Observe whether there is a top divergence in MACD or RSI on the 1-hour chart. Operationally, after signals appear in this area, one can establish the first batch of short positions accounting for 30%-40% of the total planned position, with a stop loss set above the 3285 upper track, allowing for some volatility, with an initial target looking towards the 4-hour MA10 or previous platform support 3100-3120.
2. Ideal shorting area: 3300 - 3340 high risk-reward ratio gaming zone, based on a strong break above the upper track, this area is the Fibonacci extension levels like 1.618 and key psychological levels, and also a possible area of long momentum exhaustion. Stronger reversal structures, such as a double top M pattern or multiple consecutive 4-hour candlesticks failing to hold above 3300. The 4-hour line shows a new high in price, but the top divergence structure in RSI or MACD does not show a new high. After confirming the signal, one can conduct a second batch of increased positions accounting for 40%-50% of the total planned position, with the stop loss uniformly set at 3365. The target is a retracement to the breakout level of 3200 and around the 3100 Bollinger middle track.
3. Extreme shorting area 3400 - 3450 trend reversal gaming zone, based on historical high areas or significant psychological resistance levels. If the price reaches this point, it will face extremely strong profit-taking pressure. Only when the signal is extremely clear, use a small position accounting for 10%-20% of the total planned position for the final bet. The stop loss is set at 3480, with the target as holding a swing short position.
Bottom line thinking: If the price does not retrace and directly breaks through strongly and stabilizes above 3300, then abandon all shorting plans, as this indicates that the bullish trend exceeds expectations.
$ETH A personal strategy for breaking free from Ethereum at three in the morning is right on target, adding positions near 2718, with an average price reaching 2815, aiming for 2819 just 1 point away, and at the same time, this position is a good opportunity to reduce positions.
Brothers, when entering the market, please set a stop-loss. Given Ethereum's current price, going long or short can be quite uncomfortable, especially since it is neither at a high point nor at a low point in a downtrend. If the next few days continue to trend one-sidedly, being trapped for ten days to half a month is a small matter; what if you get trapped for a month or two?
$ETH 12.2 No. Tuesday, three o'clock in the morning, let's analyze a solution for unfreezing personal Ethereum long position at 2930. Over the weekend, I placed a short position at 3075 and a long position at 3930, and when I woke up, I found myself trapped, it's been a long time since the Asian session opened and dropped over 200 points when I got up 🤧
The core principle of adding positions is: to do so when a clear stop-loss or reversal signal appears at a key support level, in order to lower the average price and control risk.
Key areas and conditions for adding positions: 1. First addition point 2709 - 2718 Current nearest support, this area coincides with the lower Bollinger Band at 2709 and the 24-hour low at 2718, and is also the first bottom price level, offering strong support. The condition for adding positions is that after the price touches this area, one must observe the 1-hour candlestick for a clear bullish signal, such as a long lower shadow (Pin Bar) or a bullish engulfing candle. RSI 6 turns upwards from the oversold zone below 20. One can tentatively add positions with a small size of 20-30% of the original position in this area.
2. Second addition point near 2670 - 2690, strong support and reversal zone. If the price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band, the next support may need to be judged based on previous lows or Fibonacci extension levels, but 2670-2690 is a psychological round number and a possible previous low extension area.
The condition for adding positions is that a strong bottom reversal pattern must appear, such as the 1-hour chart showing "Morning Star" or "Bottom Engulfing" candlestick combinations. RSI (6 and 12) forms a bottom divergence, with new price lows while indicators do not make new lows, accompanied by a significant increase in volume and an upward bullish candle. After a clear reversal signal appears, one can add an additional 30-50% of the original position.
Risk control and position management: Stop-loss suggestion: The uniform stop-loss for all positions should be set at 2650 to prevent larger losses if the trend continues downward. Average price and targets: Add positions near 2715, and the average price could drop to around 2820-2830.
First target: Reduce positions near the middle track at 2819 to lower costs. Second target: Unfreeze or profit near the upper track at 2930. Key reminder: Current MACD and RSI both indicate bearish dominance; do not blindly add positions during a downward trend, must wait for a signal. If the price directly rebounds to 2819 (middle track) and is blocked without accompanying volume, it is an opportunity to reduce positions or exit, not to add positions.
Summary: Prioritize attention to the 2709-2718 area, first addition at the 1-hour candlestick stop-loss signal. If it continues to drop, wait for a clearer reversal signal in the 2670-2690 area. Set stop-loss and control total position risk.
$BTC 11.18, the large pancake continues to innovate a new low, sol and eth do not want to fall with it. This key phenomenon can be analyzed from both technical and fundamental perspectives, usually indicating that the market is undergoing an important phase transition.
1. Technical Analysis: Bearish momentum has been released to an extreme, and signs of panic have appeared in the market. A brief summary of the technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has already exhibited severe oversold rebound conditions on an hourly level. The space for further drastic declines in the short term is limited, and the market may welcome a technical rebound at any time, with the first target being to regain the lower band of the Bollinger Bands around 91,600.
2. Fundamental and Market Sentiment Analysis: Bitcoin faces specific bearish pressures, and the main driving force for this round of decline may come from Bitcoin itself. The expectation of the “altcoin season” and the rotation of funds, with bearish news being fully priced in/partial differentiation, suggests that the aforementioned bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin is temporary and localized, and does not affect the long-term prospects of the entire cryptocurrency industry. Therefore, after funds began to withdraw from Bitcoin, they did not leave the cryptocurrency market but directly flowed into altcoins considered “oversold” or “with greater potential.” In previous market conditions, Bitcoin saw significant gains, while many altcoins had limited increases. During this Bitcoin pullback, altcoins displayed stronger resilience, indicating that holders are unwilling to sell at low prices and have greater confidence in the valuation of altcoins.
3. Comprehensive Judgment and Outlook The current market is likely at a point of “short-term bottom building” and “market style switching.” Due to severe short-term technical overselling in BTC, combined with some bearish news that has been priced in by the market, the probability of continued plummeting is low. A more likely scenario is that it oscillates around the current price range of 88,000 to 91,000, brewing a technical rebound. However, the strength of the rebound will depend on whether new positive news can offset the aforementioned bearishness. Operational reference: BTC short position take profit, aggressive traders may lightly position for a rebound with a stop loss below 89666. Focus on resilient altcoins that show strength against declines; a pullback is an opportunity for positioning. The market has not fully turned bearish; a fierce reallocation of funds is underway. The decline is more due to structural bearish factors, while the resilience of altcoins reveals that the internal buying power of the market has not dissipated. It is currently essential to remain calm, carefully identify, and prepare for a potential style switch.
$ETH The ideal long opportunities for Ethereum are only two: 1. Strong reversal signal, a clear bullish candlestick pattern such as 'Morning Star' or 'Bullish Engulfing' appears near the price of 3100 or 3000, accompanied by increased volume. 2. Trend reversal signal, the price breaks through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 3166 with increased volume and holds steady.
Overall tone: Cash is king, respect the market. At key decision points in the market, our task is not to bet on direction, but to observe and wait for the market to make its own choice, then follow the trend.
Currently, with high volatility, set stop losses; before the direction is clear, protecting the principal is your only and most important task.
$ETH 11.17 No. 16:30 Ethereum Depth Review, the Truth Behind the $3000 Defense Battle, Intraday Analysis.
A night of terror! This morning at 7 AM, a precise test of $3001, just one point away from breaking $3000! Following that, a $200 violent rebound occurred, reaching a maximum of $3209, with a 24-hour volatility of 8.2%, resulting in a dual kill scenario for both longs and shorts.
Key Findings: 1. Counterattack, the price not only recovered lost ground but also stood above the Bollinger Band's middle track at 3185 and tested the upper track at 3205. 2. Momentum shift, MACD had a strong golden cross above the zero axis, indicating a formal shift to bullish in the short term. 3. Hidden worries remain, trading volume has not significantly increased, RSI(6) reached 67 entering the overbought zone. 4. Bear market alert, the 3000-point level is confirmed as a psychological defense line, but if it drops again, it will trigger panic selling. 5. Bull market signal, this rebound confirms 3080-3100 as a new support area; holding this area will open up upward space.
Operational Strategy: Short-term: Partial profit-taking near 3200, buy back if it falls to 3150-3180.
Trend followers: After a valid breakout at 3220, add positions on a pullback, set stop loss below 3140.
Observers: Wait for a pullback to confirm support, avoid chasing highs.
This $3000 defense battle proves that the market can panic infinitely, but mathematics does not lie—rebounds after extreme overselling will only be delayed, never absent. Currently brewing a larger level market, the key is whether it can break 3250 with volume.
$ETH 11.17 Daily market analysis, key positions for Ethereum betting, the spring has been compressed to the limit. Current status, the price is struggling repeatedly at $3065, the lower Bollinger Band has become the last line of defense. RSI value 7.97 — this is a rare extreme oversold signal in the past year, market sentiment is close to freezing point.
The reality of the bear market, the daily line is firmly suppressed by the middle track at 3143, MACD death cross remains, the trend is still in the hands of bears. The spark of the bull market, extreme oversold + panic selling cleared, historically this position has triggered violent rebounds.
Short-term hunters: current price light position betting on rebound, stop loss set below 3050, target 3130-3150.
Trend trading: continue to hold cash, waiting for a volume breakout to confirm the bottom structure at 3143.
The market is watering future returns with panic. Remember: extreme emotions create extreme opportunities, but protect yourself when the spring bounces back.
$ETH $SOL Last night at 21:00, the bottom-fishing strategy was perfectly executed, ETH long at 3701, with a target point reached at 3830. Profit of 700u.
Sol long at 180, with a target point reached at 185. Profit of 400u.
A stable daily profit of over 1000u, what more do you need? Currently, it has grown from 2000u to 15,000 dollars.
Remember, for contracts, having 1k-3k dollars is enough. We are here to make money, not to increase our stakes to resist losses. Strictly adhere to your principles, set take-profit and stop-loss limits, learn to wait for opportunities, and survive.
$SOL It can be considered a low point even at dawn. Last night at 23:30, I placed this long position of 177, accurately entering at the V-shaped bottom. The Ether order was just 20 points away from 3685; otherwise, the profit would have been quite considerable.
It’s been a while since I’ve spoken up, haha; however, I’ve been trading continuously without stopping. When making money, I have to earn it quietly. I wish everyone can make a fortune quietly.
$ETH 10.16 Ether intraday analysis! Key support has been lost, and the short-term transition to a bearish trend is evident as the ETH price has effectively broken below the previously emphasized "trend lifeline" — the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 4013. It is currently running below this position, which is an important short-term weakening signal, indicating that the adjustment is deepening.
The current position of 4005 is below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 4013, hovering near the lower band at 3988. The overall channel of the Bollinger Bands is beginning to narrow and trend downward, indicating the formation of a short-term downward trend. MACD, DIF (2.96) has crossed below DEA (4.38) forming a death cross, and the MACD histogram has turned negative (-1.42), confirming that the downward momentum is strengthening. RSI has fully retreated below 50 (43.87, 48.13, 49.36) entering the bearish zone, but has not entered oversold territory, meaning there is still room for further decline. Trading volume has significantly shrunk, indicating that the decline has not triggered panic selling, but also lacks funds for bottom fishing.
1. Trend Judgment: Short-term bears dominate, the price has broken the middle band and formed a MACD death cross, and the technical outlook is bearish. Key test, currently at the last line of defense at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands at 3988. If this level is lost, it will confirm an acceleration of the decline, opening up greater downward space. 2. Market sentiment has entered a wait-and-see state, and the shrinking trading volume indicates that both bulls and bears are waiting for clearer directional signals. A significant trading volume is needed to break the current balance.
Current operational advice focuses on following the trend, mainly reducing positions on rebounds or shorting, and bottom fishing should be approached with caution while waiting for clear signals.
Conservative strategy: Continue to observe, patiently wait for one of the two signals: 1. Stabilization signal near the previous low range of 3950 - 3980, if a significant increase in volume leads to a stop-loss candlestick like a hammer or bullish engulfing pattern appears, a small position can be taken long. 2. Breakdown signal, if the price breaks below the lower band of the Bollinger Bands at 3988 with increased volume, one should abandon bottom fishing and wait for a deeper pullback, such as in the 3880 - 3920 range before considering positioning. Those already holding positions should consider the rebound to the original middle band at 4030 - 4050 as an opportunity to reduce positions or exit.
Aggressive strategy Scenario 1: Short on rebound, if the entry price rebounds to 4020 - 4040 and shows signs of momentum exhaustion, a small position can be shorted with a target of 3990-3960 and stop loss at 4060.
Scenario 2: Short on a breakdown, if the entry price breaks down below 3985 with increased volume, one can follow the trend and short with a target of 3950 - 3920 and stop loss at 4010.
Key monitoring levels Resistance above at 4013 (original middle band) is the first resistance, with 4050 to watch next. Support below at 3988 (Bollinger Bands lower band)/3950/3925.
$BTC 13 ten million bitcoins confiscated by the U.S. Department of Justice! What is the impact on the crypto world? ⚖️ Core of the event: The U.S. Department of Justice strikes hard, confiscating nearly 130,000 bitcoins from a large Cambodian fraud group known as the 'Prince Group', valued at up to 15 billion dollars, marking the largest cryptocurrency confiscation case in history. This group operated at least ten 'fraud parks' in Cambodia, implementing global scams through violent coercion of labor.
📉 Market impact analysis: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish. In the short term, it looks bearish; if 130,000 bitcoins are dumped into the market by the government, it will create immense supply pressure, potentially triggering panic selling. The impact of the news will amplify market volatility. In the long term, it looks bullish; this move severely damages the black market utilizing cryptocurrencies, purifies the market environment, enhances regulatory transparency, and paves the way for compliance, boosting institutional confidence.
💎 Insights for the crypto community: The sword of regulation has already fallen, and distinguishing the fake from the real is the way forward. Every regulatory strike is a test of market health—washing away the sludge allows for clearer waters.
$SOL 10. On the 13th, at 1:36, SOL intraday analysis shows that the trend of SOL appears to be stronger than ETH but also more dangerous. An RSI of 84.59 is a signal that requires great respect. The ideal trend is for the price to consolidate at this level, digesting the overbought indicators over time, rather than continuing to surge. For us, extreme patience is needed at this moment.
Core Situation: Strong breakout, but severely overbought in the short term. SOL is currently in a very clear strong upward trend and has broken through key resistance levels. However, like the previous ETH, it has entered the 'danger zone' for short-term trading, with high risks of chasing highs.
Current Price Action Advice, Core Idea: Trend is king, but do not chase highs. Waiting for a pullback to support levels before entering is where the bulls find their winning percentage.
Conservative Strategy (Preferred) Action: Patiently wait for a pullback, Reason: RSI(6) exceeds 84, buying at this point is like 'taking chestnuts from the fire', with a poor risk-reward ratio. Plan: First ideal long entry point is a pullback to the Bollinger Band middle line around 181.36, and observe whether it stabilizes. Second ideal long entry point: If the pullback is deeper, near the previous support around 176.30 is a stronger entry signal. Stop loss set below 175, target looking upwards again to 195, after breaking through, look to 200-210.
Aggressive Strategy High Risk Scenario 1: Breakout long entry waiting for the price to effectively break and stabilize above the historical high of 195.77, target 200 -> 210, stop loss at 192 breaking below the Bollinger Band upper line, if a false breakout, exit immediately, key point is that the position must be light, this is an extreme continuation of the trend.
Scenario 2: Betting on a pullback to short is extremely high risk, trying to short with very light positions near the current price of 195, betting on a technical pullback after severe RSI overbought. Target 186 -> 181, stop loss at 196.5 breaking the previous high is a stop loss. This is a counter-trend operation in a strong upward trend, easily 'short-squeezed' by a continued surge, with a low success rate.
Key Monitoring Points: Strong resistance at 195.77 previous high, breaking through opens up space to 200+. Initial support at 186.50 breaking down confirms the start of a short-term pullback. Core support at 181.36 Bollinger middle line, the lifeline of the trend. Strong support at 176.30 previous platform, the last defense line for the bulls.
$BTC Real-time recording of the order situation, Bitcoin currently has a profit of nearly 10,000 points, the original entry point is 126,000, and there was an increase in position to 2 Bitcoins during the process. At the 12.1 position, I took profits and exited at 4/3, and at the 12.32w position, I still hold a position of 500u, which has been maintained until now at the position of 11.6 with a continuation of 6k points.
$ETH Ethereum has made 4 waves of short trades with an average profit of around 100 points per trade, which can be referenced against historical positions.
$SOL The only regret is for Sol, which was placed at 238 for four or five days. Due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, I didn't monitor the market, and it missed entry by 0.3 points. I originally planned to hold it for the medium to long term.
These three coins have been positioned since the end of last month, including the rise that started on October 1st. I have been telling my followers to wait for an opportunity; there's no need to chase the market. Of course, I chased Ethereum at 4370 once but hit the stop loss, and then it directly rose to 4730.
After Bitcoin reached a new high, I immediately considered entering a long position. Ethereum was considered for a supplementary rise after Bitcoin's new high for day trading. 4 positions opened with over 4000 points, which is still quite good.
This wave of Sol has indeed been a bit disappointing, with a short at 238, and the result was a high of 237.74. Otherwise, it would have been a profit of 30 points, just in time for the Mid-Autumn Festival. Ethereum and Bitcoin are both profitable; at that time, I was with my family and didn't enter at market price: 🤧
Stability is key. From the 1st to now, Ethereum has had 4 trades with 0 stop losses, yielding 8000u. Bitcoin's highest position was a short at 12.6w with a margin of 2000u, and I reduced my position during the profit-taking down to the remaining 500u, with a profit of 2800u still not closed. Bitcoin's position has nearly 6000u in profit. Congratulations to this friend for recovering losses on one trade.
In many cases, after understanding the indicators of a coin, what we need to do is value investing, determining which entry points are worth betting on for profit. Technical analysis is secondary; the most important thing is mindset and position management. Many friends lose money in trading over the years mainly due to mindset and poor position management, not setting stop losses. You may understand technical indicators better than I do, and your entry points may be more accurate than mine, but you still end up with small wins and large losses.
The strategy at around 10 PM last night for $ETH was to short at 4535, 4498, and 4445, all reaching the target of 4350. Plus, there was a short at 4583 the day before. The profits are still quite considerable.
Last night, there was no time to analyze the intraday market in the square; the market information indicated a range of 4530—4350.
After finishing up these two days, I will continue to follow the intraday market analysis.
$ETH In the past few days of the short holiday, I have been with my family, and although I haven't issued market analysis, I've been trading continuously. I haven't done day trading, just shorted at high points. ① Ether shorted at 4680 has yielded a wave, and the current short at 4580 is still in play, with nearly 200 points of profit.
② The Bitcoin short at 12.5 has yielded a wave, and I've entered another short at 12.42 which is still in play. Currently, it's close to 3000 points of profit.
③ The short position of the card $SOL at 238 has been just a few points away from going up, not very strong; however, at 12 o'clock midnight, I took a short at 225 and exited. That was quite powerful.
These days off happen to be a good rest, without frequent short-term trading, which is really relaxing. Currently, I'm prepared to hold Bitcoin for the long term, and the next support level looks at the 120,000 integer point. Ether is ready to exit at any time, and Sol can find a new entry point.