$ETH Saturday 00:30, analysis of the market trend in the second half of the night, re-evaluating the big cycle. The middle track of the daily chart has been broken, and the medium-term trend has weakened. Any subsequent operations should mainly consider "shorting on rebounds" until the market structure fundamentally changes again.
This drop is very strong, as the price directly pierced the daily middle track at 3014, which I have mentioned multiple times as the "lifeline" and is now at 3067.
The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart have opened significantly downwards, indicating that the downward trend is accelerating. The MACD histogram is very long, showing strong bearish momentum. Most notably, the RSI6 is only 7.31, which is extremely oversold, even more so than the last oversold condition.
So there is a core contradiction here: the trend is definitely downward, but short-term indicators have already dropped to the limit. This means that a stronger technical rebound than the last one could happen at any time, but after the rebound, it is likely to continue falling. Those who shorted around 3200 have active short positions now, but they should not be greedy and stubbornly hold onto the rebound; they must gradually retreat.
Absolutely do not chase shorts now; the RSI is already at 7. Chasing shorts is like running into the muzzle of a gun. If you do want to chase, you should wait for a rebound to the 3150-3180 area, where the resistance after breaking previous support is a good place to add shorts.
If you want to go long, you can only take a light position between 3020-3040 for a rebound from extreme overselling, but this is against the trend and carries high risk.
So, is this a trend reversal? From the daily chart, the price breaking below the middle track at 3014 is indeed a dangerous signal, indicating that the rebound structure at the daily level may be damaged. However, the weekly chart has not weakened yet, so it is temporarily classified as a "deep correction at the daily level."
The key is whether the price can recover above 3014. In summary, users should now focus on executing profit-taking plans rather than guessing the bottom.
Recently, operations have consistently yielded significant points; on the 11th, I recommended a short position at 3270 with precise targeting. Prepare for value investment, do not miss the entry point, and ensure to have stop losses.
Key positions:
Support below, psychological level at 3000, technical support at 2950 previous low extension → 2850 weekly level support.
Resistance above for rebound targets, weak resistance at 3120 - 3150, strong resistance/ideal short zone at 3180 - 3220
Trend reversal confirmation level: the price needs to stabilize above 3250, which currently seems very difficult.
I hope everyone can turn profits into real account growth.
