$ETH 12.2 No. Tuesday, three o'clock in the morning, let's analyze a solution for unfreezing personal Ethereum long position at 2930.
Over the weekend, I placed a short position at 3075 and a long position at 3930, and when I woke up, I found myself trapped, it's been a long time since the Asian session opened and dropped over 200 points when I got up 🤧
The core principle of adding positions is: to do so when a clear stop-loss or reversal signal appears at a key support level, in order to lower the average price and control risk.
Key areas and conditions for adding positions:
1. First addition point 2709 - 2718 Current nearest support, this area coincides with the lower Bollinger Band at 2709 and the 24-hour low at 2718, and is also the first bottom price level, offering strong support.
The condition for adding positions is that after the price touches this area, one must observe the 1-hour candlestick for a clear bullish signal, such as a long lower shadow (Pin Bar) or a bullish engulfing candle. RSI 6 turns upwards from the oversold zone below 20. One can tentatively add positions with a small size of 20-30% of the original position in this area.
2. Second addition point near 2670 - 2690, strong support and reversal zone. If the price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band, the next support may need to be judged based on previous lows or Fibonacci extension levels, but 2670-2690 is a psychological round number and a possible previous low extension area.
The condition for adding positions is that a strong bottom reversal pattern must appear, such as the 1-hour chart showing "Morning Star" or "Bottom Engulfing" candlestick combinations. RSI (6 and 12) forms a bottom divergence, with new price lows while indicators do not make new lows, accompanied by a significant increase in volume and an upward bullish candle. After a clear reversal signal appears, one can add an additional 30-50% of the original position.
Risk control and position management:
Stop-loss suggestion: The uniform stop-loss for all positions should be set at 2650 to prevent larger losses if the trend continues downward.
Average price and targets: Add positions near 2715, and the average price could drop to around 2820-2830.
First target: Reduce positions near the middle track at 2819 to lower costs.
Second target: Unfreeze or profit near the upper track at 2930.
Key reminder: Current MACD and RSI both indicate bearish dominance; do not blindly add positions during a downward trend, must wait for a signal.
If the price directly rebounds to 2819 (middle track) and is blocked without accompanying volume, it is an opportunity to reduce positions or exit, not to add positions.
Summary: Prioritize attention to the 2709-2718 area, first addition at the 1-hour candlestick stop-loss signal. If it continues to drop, wait for a clearer reversal signal in the 2670-2690 area. Set stop-loss and control total position risk.
