Core viewpoint

Current price: $3,202.81 (as of December 4th, 9:56 AM)

Short-term outlook: biased towards bullish. Driven by favorable upgrades from Fusaka, ETH has risen over 5% in the past 24 hours, and technicals show continuing bullish momentum, targeting the $3,250 area. However, the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI have entered overbought territory (81.96/73.60), indicating short-term pullback risks. On-chain data shows significant net outflow (30,628 ETH outflow on December 3rd), suggesting whales continue to accumulate, supporting bullish expectations.

Key support: $3,100-$3,115 (long position liquidation zone, cumulative $718 million), $3,000-$3,100 (maximum pain range for options)

Key Resistance: $3,200-$3,227 (short position liquidation cluster, upper Bollinger Band), $3,250-$3,300 (daily Bollinger upper band at $3,252, weekly options maximum pain point moving range)

Technical Analysis

ETH price surged strongly after completing the Fusaka upgrade on December 3, quickly rising from a low of $3,070 to a high of $3,201, with a 24-hour increase of 5.3%-5.64%. The current price is near the upper Bollinger bands on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts ($3,212-$3,239), showing strong upward momentum but approaching short-term overbought conditions.

Technical Indicator Signals:

MACD shows positive value histograms across all time frames, indicating dominant buying power. The 1-hour ADX reaches 64.8, confirming that the strong upward trend has not yet exhausted.

Key Price Levels

Support Level Analysis:

  • $3,100-$3,115: This range has a cumulative $718 million long position liquidation cluster, simultaneously forming a technical support band with the 1-hour/4-hour Bollinger lower band ($3,010-$2,660), which is the primary defense level.

  • $3,000-$3,100: Secondary support comes from the recent options maximum pain point at $3,000 and the daily SMA50; if it breaks below $3,100, it will face deeper correction risks.

Resistance Level Analysis:

  • $3,200-$3,227: Immediate resistance at the upper Bollinger Band and the short position liquidation cluster (totaling $19 million), a breakout requires strong buying pressure.

  • $3,250-$3,300: A stronger resistance band formed by the daily Bollinger upper band at $3,252 and the weekly options maximum pain point moving to the $3,200-$3,300 range, with total short position liquidation reaching $190 million, a breakout may trigger short covering.

Derivatives Market Analysis

Futures Market Dynamics

ETH futures open interest grew 7.36% in the past 24 hours to $38.8 billion, indicating continued capital inflow supporting price increase. Funding rates show divergence across major exchanges: Binance is positive (+0.0055%), OKX is negative (-0.0019%), indicating a balanced long and short leverage with no extreme sentiment in the short term.

Recent liquidation data over the past 24 hours shows shorts dominating, with short liquidations at $115 million and longs only at $22 million; the 5:1 short liquidation ratio indicates that this upward move is driven by short covering, providing additional thrust to the price.

Options Market Signals

The maximum pain point for recently expiring options is at $3,000, while the weekly expiration contract pain point has moved to the $3,200-$3,300 range, indicating a slightly optimistic market expectation for short-term prices. Market makers are establishing support below $3,000 and setting pressure points at $3,250-$3,300, consistent with the current consolidation upward pattern.

On-chain Data Analysis

Whale Behavior and Capital Flow

On-chain data as of December 3 shows significant accumulation signals:

  • Net Outflow from Exchanges: 30,628 ETH transferred from exchanges, inflow of 970,700 ETH, outflow of 1,001,300 ETH

  • Reserve Changes: Exchange ETH reserves decreased from 16,586,600 ETH on December 2 to 16,556,000 ETH on December 3

  • Recent Trends: Cumulative net outflow of approximately 95,926 ETH over the past 5 days (November 29 to December 3), with 4 consecutive days of net outflow

Large-scale transfers to private wallets indicate that whales and long-term holders are accumulating, reducing the sellable chips on exchanges, creating upward pressure on prices. The latest block (23,936,863) includes 200 transactions, with a gas usage rate of 49%, showing network activity but no abnormal congestion.

Market Sentiment and Catalysts

Impact of Fusaka Upgrade

The Fusaka upgrade completed on December 3 is the core catalyst for this upward move, bringing the following key improvements:

  • Expansion Progress: Introducing PeerDAS and EIP-7918 to optimize blob fee mechanisms, enhancing Layer 2 data availability

  • Deflationary Mechanism Strengthened: Linking Layer 2 data costs to ETH burns, expected burn rate increase of 10-20%, potentially achieving net deflation by Q1 2026

  • Release rhythm changes: Shifting to two hard forks per year to accelerate protocol iteration speed

Social Sentiment Overview

Overall community sentiment is positive and optimistic, main points include:

  • Technical Analysts: Analysts point out hidden divergences and similarities in cycle patterns, targeting higher resistance levels.

  • Fundamental Analysts: Emphasize that the upgrade addresses concerns about Layer 2 value dilution and captures foundational layer value through enforced burns.

  • Institutional Trends: Charles Schwab plans to launch BTC/ETH trading services in early 2026, and the U.S. SEC's Bitcoin market structure bill is close to passing, paving the way for institutional entry.

Analyst @AltcoinSherpa believes the recent price action is strong and 'strange', possibly supported by institutional buying, and advises cautious observation for breakout signals. @eth_exy identifies a bullish technical pattern, expressing optimism for this cycle. Vitalik Buterin congratulates the team on completing shard and data availability foundational work.

Risk Warning

Short-term Correction Risks:

  • 1-hour RSI at 81.96 and 4-hour RSI at 73.60 are both in the overbought range, historical experience shows that a short-term technical correction of 5-10% may be faced.

  • If it loses the $3,100 support, it may trigger $718 million long position liquidation, exacerbating downward pressure.

Market Uncertainty:

  • Daily price remains below SMA50 ($3,423) and SMA200 ($3,533); a breakout is needed to confirm the mid-term upward trend.

  • Global macro environment and regulatory dynamics may bring volatility.

Conclusion

ETH shows strong upward momentum driven by the Fusaka upgrade, with clear bullish signals on the technical front, on-chain data shows whales continuing to accumulate, and inflows in the derivatives market support prices. In the short term, it is expected to test the $3,250-$3,300 resistance range, but caution is needed for correction risks triggered by overbought conditions. It is recommended to monitor the performance of the key support level at $3,100; a breakout above $3,227 would confirm upward continuation, while a drop below $3,100 would require observation of whether $3,000 can hold. Overall, the fundamental improvements and institutional layout expectations brought by the upgrade provide support for the mid-term trend.