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📅 Time: December 4, 2025
📊 Current HS Index: 51.150
📉 MA20 position: About 42.0
🔄 Market status: Pullback with reduced volume / Trend confirmation period
1. Market review: Healthy cooling after a sharp rise
Looking back at the past week, the HS Index experienced a sharp increase from 26.025 (the bottom) to over 80 (the short-term peak).
Today, the index has dropped back to 51.150. Many investors are starting to worry: Has the rebound ended?
The HS Quantitative System gives a clear answer: NO.
Observe today's 【HS Index Trend Analysis】 chart:
Retracement confirmation: The green solid line (index) has declined somewhat but is still steadily running above the orange solid line (MA20 moving average). In quantitative trading logic, the first pullback after breaking through the moving average is often a standard action to confirm the validity of support, commonly known as 'catching the falling car'.
Moving average turning point: Please note the orange MA20 moving average, which has shifted from a previous downward trend to a flat and slightly upward trajectory. This is a core signal for a medium- to long-term trend to shift from bearish to bullish.
2. In-depth data interpretation
Value range: The current 51.150 is still below the average value of the past six months (68.453). This means that, despite experiencing a rebound, the overall market valuation remains in the 'discount zone' and has not entered an overheating phase.
Cleaning up floating capital: From the algorithmic logic of PDF, the activity indicator of altcoins in a 30-day cycle is correcting after a short-term pulse. This pullback has cleaned out the short-term speculative positions that chased high in the past two days, alleviating selling pressure for subsequent steady rises.
3. Hengsheng quantitative investment recommendations (medium- to long-term strategy)
In the face of 'pullback', our strategy shifts from 'chasing up' to **'buying low at support levels'**.
🎯 Core strategy: A fortune cannot buy a bull's return
Operational suggestions:
For those without positions/light positions: The current 50-55 range is an excellent second buying point. As long as the index does not effectively break below the orange moving average (about 40-42 support band), every pullback is an opportunity to enter.
For holders: As long as the logic remains unchanged (index > MA20), maintain patience, ignore short-term fluctuations, and hold firmly.
Focus area:
During the index pullback process, pay attention to thoseprices that have not broken below the previous two days' low pointsof strong cryptocurrencies. The Hengsheng model shows that these resilient varieties are often the leading stocks when the next round of sprinting averages (68.453) occurs.
4. Risk critical point
Quantitative trading emphasizes discipline. While we are optimistic about the medium- to long-term trend, we need to set a defensive line:
Defensive level: If the HS Index unexpectedly breaks down below 40 (MA20 support) with significant volume, it indicates that the market trend reversal has failed, and consideration should be given to reducing positions.
Target level: The first phase medium-term target still looks towards mean reversion, that is, the index returning to the 68-70 range.
5. Conclusion
The market's initiation is often not achieved in one go; **'advance two, retreat one'** is the healthiest rhythm of an upward trend.
51.150 is not the end, but a midway gas station. Stay rational, believe in the cycle, and let profits run in the trend.
📢 Disclaimer: This article is based on Hengsheng's quantitative model data analysis and is for reference only; it does not constitute absolute investment advice. Market fluctuations are unpredictable, please strictly control leverage.
