The Dark Side of Token Unlocking

$SEI

• Price is about 6 times the historical high

• Market Cap is about 3 times the ATH

$RENDER

• Price is about 7 times the historical high

• Market Cap is about 6 times the ATH

$TAO

• Price has increased by more than 2 times compared to the historical high

• Market Cap is less than 2 times the ATH

$LINK

• Price is about 4 times the historical high

• Market Cap is about 2 times the ATH

Most people consider the price.

Experienced investors pay attention to market cap.

Because the real story of supply changes is hidden there.

Let me explain in the simplest way👇

Token unlocking does not lead to project failure.

They slow down the speed at which the price recovers to the historical high.

That's why market cap looks healthier than price.

Market cap includes all newly issued tokens.

Price does not.

So, if you are waiting for the “historical high to be reached again,” you first need to check how much supply has increased since the top.

Because every unlock makes the target of a “new ATH” further away.

That's why savvy investors pay attention to the following:

• Unlock schedule

• Circulating supply growth

• FDV vs MC

Team and investor dilemmas

• Future issuance speed

Engaging stories can make token prices soar.

The unlocking mechanism determines how high they can actually reach.

Yes, measures like buybacks and halving, like Bittensor, are viable, but the question is how quickly these measures can offset the impact of the current supply surge.

In the long run, the biggest winners are those tokens with controllable unlocks, real demand, and low issuance pressure.

Everything else… requires 2-5 times the effort to return to its previous state.