Let's talk about a key question: Even if Hasset becomes the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, can it really bring about a quick wave of interest rate cuts?

The core logic is that the Federal Reserve is not a one-man show but a committee. PGIM's fund mogul Peters pointed this out: Hasset may personally lean towards easing, but he needs to persuade other committee members. What the market is currently worried about is precisely his lack of credibility in building consensus.

What does this mean for the crypto market?

1. Short-term expectations may cool down: If the market begins to believe that "changing the chairman ≠ a sudden policy shift," then the optimistic bets on rapid and substantial interest rate cuts next year will wane. This could put short-term pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

2. However, long-term uncertainty is decreasing: This situation instead highlights the checks and balances in the Federal Reserve's decision-making mechanism. This means that regardless of who becomes chairman, the likelihood of drastic policy swings has decreased. In the long run, reducing unpredictable extreme fluctuations is not a bad thing for the healthy development of the market.

3. The real focus should shift: Instead of over-speculating on personnel changes, it is better to return to fundamentals: inflation and employment data. These are the key factors that ultimately drive all committee members' votes. Each important data release in the future may trigger a market repricing of policy paths.

Operationally, it can be viewed as follows:

· Be wary of short-term emotional fluctuations caused by "personnel hype"; do not blindly chase after price increases or sell-off.

· Shift the focus from "who becomes chairman" back to "how is the economic data."

· Maintain a certain degree of positional flexibility until the policy path is clarified.

In summary, changing a part in the Federal Reserve machine will not immediately alter its direction. For us, focusing on the road surface (economic data) is more practical than focusing on the driver (chairman candidate).

(Source: PGIM expert opinions and Bloomberg reports, for reference only, not investment advice) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH