Tonight, the market is more concerned about the "Little Non-Farm" than usual.

Due to the unexpected absence of official non-farm data this week, the ADP employment report, which was originally just a leading indicator (to be released at 21:15 tonight), has become the market's "main window" for speculating on the employment situation. It is foreseeable that market fluctuations tonight may be amplified.

Let’s briefly outline possible scenarios:

· If the data is below expectations (especially if negative values appear): it will strengthen the expectation of "economic weakening → earlier rate cuts," which could help alleviate liquidity anxiety for risk assets, and market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space may improve accordingly.

· If the data is significantly stronger than expected: it may temporarily suppress the current optimistic narrative surrounding rate cuts, and a stronger dollar will create short-term pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

It is worth noting that predictions from major institutions range from -50,000 to +50,000, showing significant divergence and indicating that the market does not have a unified view on this. In such an environment, any unexpected results may trigger emotional fluctuations.

Here are a few thoughts to consider:

1. The hour following the data release is often the most volatile, so if your position leverage is high, it is advisable to manage risk exposure in advance.

2. Single data points will not change the medium-term trend, so avoid chasing gains or cutting losses during extreme fluctuations, as it is easy to be disturbed by short-term noise.

3. If the market experiences a rapid sweep, it may be wise to patiently wait for market sentiment to stabilize before reassessing the direction.

In summary, it is advisable to stay alert tonight, but there is no need to rush into action during the most volatile moments. Once the market digests the initial reaction, the trend will often become clearer.

(Compiled from Jinshi Data and institutional forecasts for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH