Overnight reversal! The probability of interest rate cuts skyrockets to 90%, is the crypto market about to take off first? The truth is here!
Last night's market was not just simple fluctuations, but a complete reversal of liquidity expectations——
A surprisingly weak employment data directly pushed the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability to around 90%, and the entire global market instantly changed direction.
1. Weak employment = Strong interest rate cuts, U.S. stocks and gold immediately surged
The significant deterioration in employment data has led the market to almost preemptively conclude:
The Federal Reserve must cut interest rates.
Thus:
• U.S. stocks strongly rallied
• Gold rose in tandem
• U.S. Treasury yields declined
The entire macro environment clearly tells you:
The market is pricing in easing ahead of time.
2. Changes in liquidity expectations, funds begin to quietly switch tracks
The reason gold reacted first is due to the resonance of safe-haven and liquidity.
But what is truly most sensitive to "easing" is crypto assets.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have already shown a significant increase last night,
More importantly——
Some Chinese concept stocks fell against the trend, indicating that funds are withdrawing from traditional sectors and shifting to higher elasticity assets.
This is a typical "expectation-switching market pattern":
Funds are not waiting for the Federal Reserve to announce; they are preemptively laying out positions in future imaginative tracks.
3. All eyes on next week's Federal Reserve
The leap in the probability of interest rate cuts has made next week's meeting the most critical juncture of the year:
• If Powell eases up → The liquidity floodgates truly open → Crypto may enter "expected bull" ahead of time
• If he continues to be stubborn → The market will experience short-term fluctuations, but the mid-term direction is basically locked in easing
Regardless,
The direction has already emerged, the key is the rhythm.
4. Will crypto assets take off?
From historical experience:
The "interest rate cut expectation phase" is one of the periods with the most significant increases in the crypto market.
Therefore, it is highly likely that expectations will rise first, followed by actual results.
The real explosive market often appears:
1–3 weeks before the interest rate cut is implemented.
In summary:
The market has already caught a whiff, just waiting for the Federal Reserve's stamp. $BTC
