Interest rate cut = good news exhausted? The rebound may end at any time, and I am turning completely pessimistic in the next three months!
In the early morning, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, which completely met expectations. However, precisely because it 'completely met expectations,' this interest rate cut became the last straw that broke the rebound. The rise in the past few weeks was essentially a pre-trade of the interest rate cut expectations. Now that the good news has officially landed, the shoe has dropped = good news exhausted, and the short-term rebound is also nearing its end. From a policy perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut rates in the next few months is extremely low, while the probability of Japan raising rates has soared to 90%. The global monetary environment is shifting from an easing expectation to a tightening reality. Coupled with the capital return effect before Christmas at the end of the year, market liquidity will only become tighter, and the latter half of the month and even January and February of next year are likely to show a clearly weak pattern.
More importantly: current market liquidity is not even close to the peak of the bull market. Once a medium-sized sudden negative event occurs, a panic sell-off is almost unavoidable. BTC may very well break through the previous low of 80,000 USD, continuing to look downward for real support levels. The market has no new good news, no new capital, and no clear policy direction; there is only a vacuum period of 'interest rate cut landing,' which is the most dangerous phase.
Based on the above judgment, I maintain a pessimistic attitude for the next three months. Originally, it was expected that this round of rebound could reach the range of 95,000–97,000 before rolling positions, but now it is unlikely to be realized. I will not consider rolling positions below 95,000; I will continue to firmly hold long positions in BTC and ETH until the market shows a real turning point in capital and policy. $BTC
