Tonight at 21:30, the ultimate judgment! One piece of data will determine whether the crypto market is bloodbath or surge!
Brothers, the real drama isn't Powell's speech last night, but that one number at 21:30 tonight.
The reason why last night's market experienced a "good news fully priced in and then a plunge" is simple:
The market's optimistic sentiment was overdrawn in advance.
BTC surged and was immediately crushed, Ethereum free-fell from $3447 — this is not bearish, but the market is telling you:
Expectations have been realized, the scythe has fallen.
But the important thing is:
Powell has handed over the power for the next act to the data.
He said that future policy will return to a "data-dependent mode."
The meaning is simple:
The market is not dictated by me, but by the data.
You all can handle it.
And the data released tonight at 21:30 —
The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 7
is the first "edict" of the data era.
Tonight at 21:30, one piece of data = two fates
● Scenario 1: Data is weak (significant increase in claims)
This means job deterioration, and the Federal Reserve must continue to cut rates.
The result will be:
• U.S. Treasury yields falling
• U.S. stock market rebounding
• Bitcoin and Ethereum likely to welcome a second surge
This is the script of "easing expectations strengthen → risk assets collectively take off."
Weak data = Crypto carnival resumes.
● Scenario 2: Data is strong (claims decrease)
This indicates that job resilience is still there, and the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates.
The result will be:
• Risk appetite cools
• U.S. Treasury yields rebound
• The crypto market is very likely to welcome another round of "second leg retest"
Last night's plunge, in this situation, was just a warm-up.
Strong data = The entire market may welcome another round of sell-off.
Tonight's cut is the determining hammer of market direction
Last night's sharp rise and fall was just the prologue,
The true trend of the market will be answered by tonight's data.
If you are trading:
Do not increase your position, do not go against the trend, do not gamble on direction in advance.
Look at the strength of the first 1-minute candlestick at 21:30; it will tell you the true choice of institutions.
Tonight is not a night of volatility,
Tonight is —
A night of life and death.
