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TraderLeoHK
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The rational approach is to start gradually accumulating in batches. Gradually, in batches. It's not time to go all in yet.
TraderLeoHK
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Bearish
#BTC According to the predictions from the past two days, it has now steadily retraced to the 0.382 level. Continuing to observe.
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最近的预测贴含金量都很高
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#BTC 近期新闻简报： 1. 当前行情：比特币现区间八十八至九十一千美元，受 Vanguard 转而支持加密 ETF 影响，机构资金在三十六小时内回流两千亿，总市值的反弹已确认。 2. 关键催化：Twenty One Capital 定于十二月九日在纽交所挂牌，象征传统资本正式入场；K33 研报显示上周低点为短期底部，美联储若维持宽松，十二月目标十万。 3. 技术支撑：五十日均线转多，八十三至八十六千区间提供强支点，现无大规模杠杆清算风险。 4. 下行警惕：假期流动性收窄或放大震荡，但主力如 MicroStrategy 与 Kraken 正持续加仓，中国禁令属旧闻，无实质冲击。 5. 短期判断——净看涨，年底区间九十五至一百一十千美元已具概率支撑。 辅助材料： 1. Vanguard 机构简介与影响力：Vanguard 是全球最大的资产管理公司之一，总资产管理规模超十一万亿美元，主要服务零售投资者和养老基金。它长期对加密持保守态度，但最近（12月2日起）逆转政策，允许客户在其平台买卖比特币等加密ETF。这直接打开了数万亿美元的潜在资金大门，推动比特币短期市值反弹两千亿，标志机构主流化加速——对BTC是重大利好，预计将吸引更多保守型资金流入。 2. 美联储宽松政策细节及对BTC影响：美联储12月9-10日会议，市场预期25个基点降息，将联邦基金利率降至3.5%-3.75%区间，这是宽松信号（降低借贷成本，刺激风险资产）。如果真的降息，比特币很可能上涨——美元走弱、流动性增加，资金青睐高回报资产如BTC，历史数据显示类似降息周期BTC平均涨15-25%。若继续放鸽子（不降息，只口头暗示未来宽松），短期可能小幅震荡或微跌（因失望卖压），但中长期仍偏涨，因为预期已计入价格，不会逆转整体牛市趋势。
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#SOL 0.786的位置接多成功。继续观察，止损在BE点。
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#BTC 筑基
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已经在618的位置停下了。目前支撑的时间已经远超382。我开始停掉空单，继续做多。
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