Many people look at chains and only consider one sentence:
"Is it backed by big players? Is there any hype?"
In fact, determining whether a chain is worth your time to complete tasks, participate in airdrops, or even use long-term,
There are three simplest but most error-proof indicators.
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① Signal: Three indicators that an excellent chain must possess.
You don't need to understand TPS, consensus mechanisms, or modularity—these complex terms.
Just understanding the three 'visibly obvious' indicators below is enough to filter out 90% of garbage chains.
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(1) The number of active users on the chain (DAU) is steadily increasing
This is the most critical first indicator.
If a chain has only 3,000 to 10,000 users running daily, it can hardly be called an 'ecosystem'.
If you see:
• User growth is stable.
• Users from multiple chains are migrating in.
• Significant increase in wallet creation.
This indicates that this chain has shifted from 'speculation' to 'real demand'.
Newbie golden standard: Over 100,000 DAU in a single day (long-term) is considered a strong chain.
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（2）TVL (locked amount) continues to rise, rather than relying on a single project to hold on.
TVL = Total locked assets on the chain (representing real capital investment).
The distinction is simple:
• **Good chain TVL:** Multiple protocols contributing together → Becoming increasingly stable.
• **Bad chain TVL:** Relying on a single high APR project to hold on → If the project fails, the chain collapses.
Judgment method:
If the TVL curve rises like a staircase, layer by layer → Healthy.
If the TVL is like a 'roller coaster' → Speculative chain.
Newbie golden line: Chains with a TVL exceeding 500 million USD and steadily growing have stronger risk resistance.
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（3）Developer activity (especially long-term developers).
The future of the chain ≠ users.
The future of the chain = Whether developers are willing to continue building here.
The fate of the chain has never been determined by retail investors, but by developers.
You need to pay special attention to:
• Has the number of developers continued to grow over the past 180 days?
• Are there external projects willing to migrate to this chain?
• Are there 'real applications' landing here?
If a chain only has a bunch of task projects and yield farming games, with no new protocols launched → That's not an ecosystem, it's an activity department.
Newbie judgment method:
Seeing ≥ 5 new projects launched in a month = the ecosystem is starting to come alive.
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② Speculation: Common characteristics of a chain before it explodes.
When the above three indicators appear simultaneously, the chain generally welcomes an explosion in 1-3 months:
• Users are pouring in → More applications.
• More applications → TVL increases.
• TVL increases → Market sentiment strengthens.
• Sentiment strengthens → KOLs and project parties take turns to stand on stage.
What you see as 'the chain starting to heat up' is just a delayed signal.
To truly judge the value of a chain in advance, just look at three things:
📌 Users → How hot is the money?
📌 Funds → How much money is there?
📌 Developers → Willingness to continue building.
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③ Strategy: How can ordinary people use these three points to judge whether to participate?
Very simple:
Strategy A: Stable growth of DAU → Start testing (no need to invest money).
Doing tasks, trying projects, mixing in whitelists, the risk is lowest at this time.
Strategy B: TVL begins to rise in stages → Can participate in activities/airdrops.
This usually means the ecosystem is officially starting.
Strategy C: Increased developer activity → Consider long-term focus (not short-term speculation).
Represents the chain entering the 'second stage', beginning to attract quality projects.
In summary, the strategy is:
First, look at people (users).
Now look at the money (TVL).
Finally, look at builders (developers).
Completely enough for you to see the opportunity of a chain 2 months in advance.
In the next class, we will discuss:
What exactly is gas fee? Why is it sometimes a few cents and sometimes a few dollars?