Dear cryptocurrency friends, I am Liangyi!
Last night's PCE data, I'm sure everyone saw it; inflation is indeed cooling down, and the threshold for the Fed to lower interest rates has dropped another notch. According to the script, the market should be setting off fireworks, right? But if you look at Bitcoin, it's dragging its feet; the 4-hour chart is full of green fat and red thin, like an 'old six' holding bad intentions. What hidden secrets are really behind this that cannot be openly discussed?
Why has the good news become a 'smoke bomb'?
The data is good data, with core PCE dropping to 2.8%, hitting a three-month low, which is like giving the market a 'pill of reassurance.' Theoretically, the water should come, and the boat should rise. However, the cryptocurrency market's reaction was merely a 'short-term jump,' and then it just slumped there. Why? Because the real 'big show' is not in the macro but in the market itself. It's like telling you there's gold ahead but not mentioning that the road is filled with traps designed to catch greedy people. Will the 'slaughterhouse' scenario of ETH at 3000-3200 repeat itself on BTC? I'll leave that for now.
The technical indicators are 'lying', do you understand?
Right now, this market is extremely strange. The price is stuck at 89200, neither up nor down, with a rebound pressure zone above at 94000-98000, like a great mountain; below are two support levels at 87000 and 84000, looking like a safety net. The deadly part is that the MACD has crossed below the zero line—this is a classic 'bull trap' signal! It tells you: don't be fooled by its past strength; it may have exhausted its power. This current trend is like someone deliberately 'nailing' the price here. What are they waiting for? Or rather, what are they 'nurturing'? The answer to this question determines whether you feast or become someone else's meal.
The script of the two instruments: first dig a pit, then fill the pit, with a clear goal.
Combining the 'expected good news' from the information and the 'short-term exhaustion' from the technical indicators, my judgment is: the market is playing the trick of 'fulfilling expectations, exhausting good news'. The expectation of interest rate cuts has already been speculated in advance, and now the data has confirmed it, the main force may take the opportunity to offload. Therefore, I think it is more likely to 'dig a pit' downwards in the short term.
The first scenario (high probability): first break below 89000, testing the key support at 87000. If it doesn't hold here, panic selling will surge, heading straight for the bottom area at 84000. Only by creating space and washing out the hesitant bulls can the subsequent rise be easier.
The second scenario (low probability): directly pulling up from dry ground, aggressively attacking 90000 and stabilizing there. But this requires a huge and sustained buying force, which is extremely difficult under the current backdrop of a standoff between bulls and bears and intensive liquidations, more like a 'bull trap'.
Remember this phrase: the opportunities that everyone sees are often not opportunities.The real market starts when most people in the market begin to doubt.
The market always arises in despair and ends in celebration. The market is currently in a 'confused period after good news', which is the darkest time before dawn and the moment that most distinguishes the experts from the amateurs. Pay attention to the two instruments, enter the room, where to go next, I will help you see clearly.
