Crypto friends, I am Liang Yi. This morning when I opened my eyes, I saw the news explode—Grayscale has submitted an application for a spot ETF for SUI to the SEC! The news instantly went viral, and many people are excited, feeling that the next hundredfold coin is about to take off. But Liang Yi advises you to stay calm and not let FOMO emotions overwhelm you. Because the current market is witnessing a fierce game between "news" and "technology"!
News:
Who is Grayscale? A giant whale in the cryptocurrency world, every move they make influences market nerves. Their application submission is equivalent to stamping a "potential compliance" mark on the future value of SUI, which is a long-term top benefit with immense imagination. But the key question arises: will this benefit cause prices to soar immediately, or will it first create a "pit" before taking off? This depends on how big capital wants to play.
Technical analysis:
Let's shift our focus to the 4-hour candlestick chart. The overall trend is still in a downward channel, and the pressure zone above 1.754-1.89 resembles a towering mountain. More subtly, the MACD, although both lines are above the zero axis, indicating that the larger trend hasn't deteriorated, the 'death cross' signal has lit up—this usually means that the short-term upward momentum is exhausted and there is a demand for a correction. So, is this the routine of 'positive news being fully priced in', or the eve of a reversal before 'negative news being fully priced in'?
My core view is very clear: in the short term, I see volatility, in the medium term, I am bullish, but the road is definitely bumpy. I believe the probability of a direct violent surge breaking through 1.89 today is very low. The market is more likely to follow the script of 'positive news realization, washing and accumulating'. The real battlefield between bulls and bears is at the critical watershed of 1.64. If the price can stabilize above 1.64 with volume, then the bullish target is clear: it is to test the resistance at 1.754. But if, and I mean if, it can't even stabilize above 1.64, then caution is warranted; the market may take advantage of positive news to offload, looking down again for support at 1.48 or even 1.3 to complete one last fierce washout.
The market always develops in hesitation and ends in revelry. The Grayscale news is just a significant stroke in SUI's long-term script, but how it moves in the short term is still dictated by market funds. Remember, in this market, the money you can make is always within the range of your understanding. I am Liu Yi, follow me, and I'll take you through the bull and bear markets.
