Inflation data came out 'textbook':
▪ PCE — within the forecast,
▪ inflation expectations — even better than anticipated.
And so what? 🤷♀️
The markets are like: 'mmm… not bad, but not impressive.'
📉 DXY is hovering just above 99, S&P 500 launched beautifully, as if it was heading to space — and… changed its mind. Still green, but clearly without enthusiasm.
💥 Crypto also decided to put on a performance: slightly fell, but the total capitalization still holds a gigantic 3 trillion.
BTC dominance — 59.20%.
What does this mean?
Yes, NOTHING.
White noise. Like a fan that hums, but you have long stopped hearing it.
BTC has been living in its little 'corridor of gloom' since November 21 — 84–94K.
In March–April, I did the same: first down, then sideways 74.5–88K.
Déjà vu with a direct hit.
November 2024 and early 2025 drops?
Yes, they are twin brothers. Almost indistinguishable.
Then accumulation lasted almost two months.
Now everything will go faster — but so far only the third week.
I have a feeling that the real movement will start after the Fed meeting...
if something doesn't blow up earlier, because this is crypto — anything can blow up here.
🎯 What is important?
Understand the DIRECTION.
And 'when' — that is for perfectionists.
If I bought Ethereum at 2800 and plan to close from 9K and above —
Honestly, I don't care if it's in May, October, or whenever Mercury goes retrograde.
📌 More short-term:
BTC in the current range — a great working tool.
Part of the position above 100K in December? Quite.
But if it suddenly happens in January — well okay, not a reason to stage a drama of the century.
Being wrong in timing is not scary.
It's scary — to be wrong in direction.
🔮 I'm expecting a thin, lazy market over the weekend:
▪ lower zone 84–86K,
▪ upper 93–94K.
Moreover, it is quite possible that BTC will not drop below 87–88K.
He generally likes to portray calmness right now, until he starts throwing candles.
Here is the picture: a bit of chaos, a bit of uncertainty — and all this under the sauce of pre-Christmas volatility.
Crypto remains crypto.
