Data from crypto analysis platform, Glassnode, indicates that the current price of Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below the 0.75 quantile since mid-November leaving over a quarter of the entire circulating supply at unrealized losses.
Data from Artemis, another digital assets metrics platform, shows that Bitcoin Treasury companies are:
27% down over the last one month
41% down over the last 3 months
The problem however goes deeper than a simple price bounce.
The Artemis DAT heat map shows one thing clearly: the past 3 months have been brutal.
• BTC DATs: –40.9% • ETH DATs: –22.5% • SOL DATs: –47.2% • HYPE DATs: –54.6% https://t.co/LTELgdZu1u pic.twitter.com/tWYwLDkNqi
— Artemis (@artemis) December 3, 2025
How We Got Here
Recall that Bitcoin Treasury was pioneered by MicroStrategy using a simple strategy – Purchasing stock in companies holding Bitcoin traded at a massive premium to the underlying Net Asset Value, which was Bitcoin. This allowed the firms to issue expensive equity to buy cheaper coins thereby increasing Bitcoin per share that relied on one crucial input: a persistent equity premium.
However, with Bitcoin drawdown at roughly:
13% over the last month
16% over the last 3 months
the mechanism seems to have broken down as the premium to Net Asset Value has largely evaporated with the sector largely trading near or below the market value adjusted for debt.
Once the premium shifts to a discount, issuing shares to acquire Bitcoin stops adding value and instead destroys it.
To shift this sector from distressed proxies back into a premium asset class, a mere price recovery isn’t enough. The market needs structural fixes spanning pricing, liquidity, and governance.
BITCOIN | Institutions Now Hold ~12% of the Total Bitcoin Supply – a 5% Increase in Just One Year
While early adopters sit on profit, the newer Bitcoin Treasury companies are underwater with some, like Metaplanet and Nakamoto (NAKA), managing significant market-to-market losses.
This imposes a considerable narrative penalty.
Treasuries priced meaningfully above cost basis are perceived as capital compounders guided by strong allocators, while those below are viewed as distressed holding structures. The model’s built-in leverage—spanning price, issuance, and financial leverage—serves to magnify these effects.
As an example, Nakamoto is down:
38% in one month
83% in 3 months
Its a similar situation with Metaplanet as the figure below illustrates.
Herein lies the challenge:
A renewed expansion in premiums requires more than a Bitcoin rebound; the asset must maintain levels significantly above the $107,000 high-water marks. Only with such stability can balance sheets strengthen sufficiently to convince investors that “Bitcoin per share” reflects accretive value rather than a managed liability.
The Era of ‘Print Stock, Buy BTC’ is Over
In early 2025, blind accumulation was rewarded. Now, however, it demands survivability with MicroStrategy’s recent move to raise ~$1.44 in cash reserves a good indicator of this dynamic. The idea is to raise funding to cover dividend commitments while delaying forced selling. Strategy’s raise is expected to cover at least 12 months of dividend and interest commitments and a significant evolution of the Treasury model where just pure BTC accumulation is not enough. Instead, liquidity management is becoming more of a strategic priority.
BITCOIN | ~35 Firms Hold Over 1,000 BTC as Corporate Bitcoin Investments Surge in Q3 2025
Risk concentration within the Bitcon Treasury sector is also a concern. With MicroStrategy controlling over 80% of all Bitcoin help within the sector and ~72% of the Bitcoin Treasury category’s total market capitalization, concerns such as the pending MSCI consultation looking at whether to restrict such companies from major indices could make the entire basket disappear when such funds are stuck to trading at a discount permanently to the underlying BTC holdings.
According to a Galaxy analysis, as long as crypto markets remain suppressed, Treasury companies will likely trade at flat or negative premiums where:
BTC per share, the core KPI that determines whether issuance is accretive or dilutive, will stagnate or decline.
DAT equities will offer a levered downside, not upside, versus spot BTC
“Investors should not expect the early 2025 “equity beta > BTC beta” regime to reappear without a full reset in risk appetite and BTC making new highs. ” – Galaxy
This drawdown is a balance-sheet stress test. Firms with the least flexibility include those that:
Issued the most stock at the highest premium;
Bought the most BTC at cycle-top prices; and
Layered on debt against those holdings
Galaxy notes:
“Prolonged discounts plus large unrealized losses are likely to create real solvency and governance pressure. Expect potential restructurings and stronger players (including Strategy) to be well-positioned to acquire weaker ones at a discount or to simply outlast them.
In other words, treasury companies are about to enter a Darwinian phase.
In principle, the treasury company trade isn’t dead. If and when BTC eventually prints new all-time highs, some subset of these companies will likely regain modest equity premiums and reopen the issuance flywheel. But the bar appears to be higher now. Boards and management teams are going to be judged on how they handled this first real stress test. Did they over-issue into the top? Did they preserve optionality? How did they handle the downturn? Are their shareholders willing to get back on for another ride?
The key shift is that these companies now look less like simply “leveraged upside on BTC” plays and more like path-dependent instruments whose payoffs depend heavily on issuance strategy and entry timing.”
PRESS RELEASE | The First Bitcoin Treasury Company Receives a B- Rating from a Major Credit Rating Agency
Stay tuned to BitKE updates on Bitcoin adoption globally.
Join our WhatsApp channel here.
Follow us on X for the latest posts and updates
Join and interact with our Telegram community
___________________________________________
