Overall Overview

Recently, Bitcoin has shown divergence in macro and technical aspects: on one hand, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have strengthened, boosting risk assets; on the other hand, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 0.75%, raising concerns about global liquidity. BTC has fluctuated and corrected in this complex backdrop, but the long-term structure remains strong. The market sentiment index is 22 (fear zone), reflecting cautious funding but no panic selling has occurred.

At the same time, the trend of institutional entry continues to deepen—BlackRock and Ark Invest have respectively increased their holdings in Bitcoin ETFs and spot positions. Combined with on-chain data, long-term holders' supply has reached 14.08 million BTC, indicating stable confidence among holders, while short-term holdings are about 5.87 million, suggesting that active trading still exists in the market. Overall, Bitcoin is in a dual adjustment period from macro policy to on-chain structure.

Analysis dimension one: Macro drivers (capital and policy perspective)

1. Rate cut expectations support
Recently, the core PCE data in the US was below expectations, raising the market's probability of a rate cut in December to 87%. This good news has provided short-term support for BTC, with risk aversion sentiment marginally easing. If a formal rate cut is realized, it will push Bitcoin and mainstream assets to rise in tandem, while providing a re-entry window for institutional funds.

2. Yen interest rate hike risk
The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 0.75%, triggering massive closures of 'Yen arbitrage trades', which may lead to a temporary contraction in global liquidity, exposing BTC to increased volatility risk in the short term. This factor may cause the dollar to strengthen, thereby suppressing the risk appetite in the crypto market.

3. Market capital flow balance
In the past three days, there has been continuous net capital outflow (with a single-day high of 260 million USD), but the long-term long-short ratio of contract positions remains above 1.87, indicating that traders still maintain a bullish tendency. The long position share of elite accounts is about 67%, showing that professional investors are relatively optimistic about future trends.


Analysis dimension two: Technical structure (bull-bear game and momentum changes)

Short-term signals (15-minute to 1-hour level)

MACD indicator: A weak golden cross signal appears, but momentum is still insufficient, indicating limited short-term rebound space.

KDJ indicator: K value is about 50–60, in a neutral slightly weak position, market momentum is in a recovery phase.

Bollinger Bands: The lower support is around the 89,200 line, if this position stabilizes, a secondary rebound to around 90,000 may unfold.

Medium-term perspective (4-hour to daily level)

MACD continues to converge, momentum weakens but remains neutral.

Moving average system: The 5-day moving average of BTC has crossed below the 10-day moving average, indicating a short-term trend that leans towards oscillation; the 200-day moving average is still rising, indicating a robust long-term structure.

Bullish defensive zone: Key support is around 89,000, if this range holds, the market is expected to challenge the resistance zone of 93,000–94,000.

Speculative sentiment: The funding rate is positive (1.9E-5), indicating that long positions are paying interest, and the overall market is biased towards long.

Analysis dimension three: On-chain and sentiment (market depth)

1. Strengthening holding structure
The short-term holder supply accounts for about 29%, while long-term holders still account for over 70%, reflecting the continuation of HODL faith. This structure has a natural support effect against price declines.

2. Social sentiment differentiation
Twitter public opinion shows bullish views scoring between 65–77, bearish views around 30%, and overall sentiment still leans towards bullish. Especially with institutional accumulation and the Dubai government's acceptance of Bitcoin for governance, market confidence has significantly increased.

3. Market fear indicator
The fear and greed index is at 22, which is in the low range, historically this level often corresponds to a mid-term bottom zone or oscillation bottoming stage.

Recent funds in Bitcoin are still circulating, with risk appetite gradually repairing. If BTC stabilizes at 89,000 support, it is expected to drive mainstream chain ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana to warm up, especially the DeFi and RWA concept funds are likely to follow the rebound. Mid-short term strategy suggestion:

Trend-following layout: When stabilizing around 90,000, consider gradually increasing positions, targeting the 93,800–95,000 range.

Gradual accumulation: If it falls below 88,900, temporarily avoid risks and wait for a solid signal before re-entering.

Swing operation: Pay attention to the Fed's meeting this month and global exchange rate changes, avoid high volatility periods, and maintain flexible positions.

Summary

Current BTC is about 89,307.34 USDT, in a key technical defensive area.
Overall view:

Macro perspective: Rate cut benefits still provide support, but are suppressed by the risk of Japanese rate hikes, forming structural volatility.

Technical perspective: short-term oscillation, medium-term still relatively strong, key support at 89,000.

Sentiment perspective: The market remains cautiously optimistic, with long-term funds showing no signs of panic withdrawal.

Comprehensive judgment: Bitcoin is in a phase of oscillation bottoming, short-term may continue range consolidation, medium-term bullish structure remains intact. If the Fed formally enters a rate cut cycle, BTC is expected to restart the target advancement above 97,000 USD. Combine bullish structure and institutional buying stabilizing, maintain a positive wait-and-see attitude, and pay attention to policy and liquidity signals in the next two weeks.

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