12.6 Friday's gold ended perfectly, once showing a strong bullish stance during trading, peaking at 4259 before a sudden drop, ultimately closing at 4196, once again breaking below the 4200 mark. Previously, the hourly chart had broken through the triangular consolidation and the day's high, while the drop in the early hours of Saturday made next week's layout clearer.
On Wednesday, the ADP employment data saw a surprising decrease of 32,000 (expected increase of 10,000), which should have been a great benefit for gold, but it ended up peaking and then retreating; on Thursday, the initial claims for unemployment benefits did not increase but instead decreased, creating a contradiction in employment data that led to a rebound; on Friday, low inflation confirmed the expectation of interest rate cuts, yet gold directly surged and then plummeted below 4200! For three consecutive days, U.S. data has deviated from market predictions, so why is the gold market not following the 'script' at all?
From the market environment perspective, before the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting on Friday, global financial markets were in a wait-and-see mode, with the dollar slightly down, gold rising moderately, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries slightly up, overall trading was light, reflecting investor caution. The core contradiction in the current market has shifted from verifying economic data to pricing in advance the policy path divergence of global central banks (especially the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan)—the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates and expectations that the Bank of Japan may end negative rates have become core variables affecting capital flow and asset pricing. The policy silence period is precisely the brewing stage of a new trend, and the fluctuation in gold essentially represents a game before the direction of bulls and bears becomes clear.
Currently, the gold market's washout is not over; the 4-hour level adjustment is still insufficient, and even favorable data makes it difficult to maintain a sustained strong one-sided trend; only when the Federal Reserve begins to normalize interest rate cuts and clearly tolerates high inflation in 2026 will gold prices regain the large one-sided trend seen from August to October. Next week's market is likely to oscillate, with the weekly second rebound being a bait for bulls; we need to wait for the market's bullish sentiment to cool down before the real bullish trend can start. Grasping the rhythm is key to profitability.
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