When you zoom out, Bitcoin’s long-term structure becomes incredibly predictable. Every major cycle includes one final, heavy correction that wipes out weak hands before the real expansion begins. The chart highlights these periods: -54%, -47%, -45%, -57%, and now the current -31% drawdown. Each of these deep pullbacks came after a strong rally, and each one looked scary in the moment. Yet every single time, Bitcoin went on to make new all-time highs after the reset.
The key here is the 100-week moving average — the thick orange line on the chart. For more than a decade, BTC has tested this level during cycle pauses, only to bounce and begin its strongest leg of the bull run. The line acts like a long-term heartbeat of the market. Whenever Bitcoin dips into it, it has historically marked the final accumulation window, not the end of the cycle.
The current structure looks almost identical to previous cycles. A strong run, a sharp correction of around 30%, a touch of the long-term average, and then an explosive continuation. People panic at the red boxes, but in hindsight, those zones were the last great buying opportunities before Bitcoin went vertical.
What makes this moment interesting is that macro conditions are shifting at the same time — rate cuts are coming, liquidity signals are turning green, and supply on exchanges is falling again. The long-term chart and the macro backdrop are aligning in a way that we’ve seen before big moves.
If history repeats, this correction won’t be remembered as the end. It will be remembered as the point where the next wave quietly began.
