Looking at this BTC 1-hour chart, my first feeling as an old trader is that it's a boring fluctuation, the calm before the big show. The price is compressed within a very narrow range, with short upper and lower shadows, a typical 'dead time'. I've seen this pattern too many times in my eight years; it often indicates both bulls and bears are gathering strength, waiting for a directional breakout.
Specifically, the current price is stuck between MA7 and MA30, unable to go up or down. The yellow MA30 is around 89812, acting like a ceiling; several attempts to break through have not been effective, indicating significant short-term pressure. The support from MA7 below is also not very solid, with trading volume clearly shrinking and market participation very low. At this time, predicting the next second's rise or fall is no different from flipping a coin; any technical indicators will temporarily fail.
My view is clear: don't operate frequently in a fluctuating range. This narrow fluctuation may seem to have small profits, but after deducting friction costs, the actual returns are limited, and it's easy to be stopped out by a sudden one-sided breakout. Experienced traders die from trying to catch the bottom and top, while new traders die from chasing rises and falls, and in this kind of market, both experienced and new traders die together from impatience.
So, my strategy can be summed up in one word: wait. Either wait for the price to strongly rise above MA30 with volume and stabilize, at which point one can consider going long. Or wait for it to break down through the lower dense trading area on increasing volume, then look for short opportunities. Before the signals are clear, preserving capital, sipping tea, and watching the play is the core principle for surviving and reaping rewards in the cycle of bulls and bears. The market never lacks opportunities; it lacks patience. @俊哥说趋势
