This year's consumer market is really a bit strange. On one side, major platforms remain silent about GMV during Double Eleven, as if whoever speaks first loses; on the other side, Jay Chou is holding a four-day concert in Tianjin, which can directly drive thirty billion in consumption. At the same time, those once bustling live streaming rooms have suddenly gone quiet, and top streamers earning millions monthly have either started creating content or simply disappeared. The income of streamers in a certain live streaming base in Hangzhou has dropped by sixty percent year-on-year, and the elimination rate of small and medium-sized streamers exceeds eighty percent; this is not your illusion.

Many people's first reaction to this scene is: it's over, e-commerce is failing, are people starting to downgrade their consumption? But the real answer is exactly the opposite—not a downgrade, but a shift in the direction of money.

If you look back at those who are truly wealthy, they dress so ordinarily like the uncle next door—Mark Zuckerberg in a gray T-shirt, Lei Jun in a black polo, so plain that you would think they are even thriftier than you. But their annual golf membership fees are six figures, private coaching sessions cost thousands, and they frequently fly to Japan for full-body check-ups. The rich don’t avoid spending money; they just spend it on things that others can't see: experiences, services, time, health.

The path of ordinary people is actually quite similar. When earning five thousand a month, all money is spent on clothes, mobile phones, and daily necessities; as income increases, the proportion spent on goods actually decreases, because simply 'buying things' can no longer satisfy their needs.

And precisely this year, the ceiling of e-commerce has hit the loudest. The penetration rate in 2024 dropped from 27.6% to 26.8%, and remained around 25% in the first eight months of 2025, marking the first continuous decline in over twenty years. Even Pinduoduo's physical GMV growth rate is close to stagnation, and Douyin has discovered the '8% red line'—once there is too much physical content, user retention immediately drops.

Money hasn’t disappeared; it has just flowed from the 'stockpiling era' to the 'experience era.' This is not a retreat, but an upgrade.

In the next ten years, selling goods will become increasingly difficult, but services that can provide real experiences, solve emotions, and enhance quality of life will grow larger and larger. The real opportunity lies here.