“Yen Pressure and Weak On-Chain Data Signal a Risk-Off Market”
The BOJ’s upcoming rate hike is mostly priced in, and Japan will remain more dovish than the U.S., keeping the yield gap wide. This means a sharp yen carry-trade unwind is unlikely. However, steady Japanese tightening can keep U.S. Treasury yields elevated, which generally weighs on global risk assets, including crypto. Speculators are already long yen, and JGB yields have been rising for months, reducing the chance of any sudden shock.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s #BTC on-chain picture is weakening. Around 25% of BTC supply is now at a loss, total supply in loss has risen above 7M BTC, and several metrics look similar to the early stages of the 2022 bear market. ETF #ETFs demand has softened with six straight weeks of outflows, spot volumes are declining, and derivatives data shows reduced risk appetite with falling open interest and more cautious options positioning. Investors are clearly defensive going into the FOMC.
Overall, both yen-driven macro factors and Bitcoin’s on-chain trends point toward a mildly bearish, risk-off environment.#FOMCMeeting #USJobsData #CryptoRally $BTC
