The Big Sunday Report: Key Insights and Probabilities
Nothing has fundamentally changed since last week's analysis, keeping this update focused on the highest-probability moves for the week ahead. Our core focus remains on the major liquidity clusters at the $97,000 and $107,000 price regions.
🚩 Technical, Liquidity, and Psychological Breakdown
The immediate technical confluence points to a potential relief rally before the next major leg down:
Weekly EMA50 Retest: The weekly EMA50, a crucial macro bull/bear indicator, aligns perfectly with the lower liquidity pool in the $99,000 – $100,000 range. A retest here is highly probable.
The Perfect Trap: A spike to this region, potentially fueled by the FOMC statement on December 10th, would serve as an optimal liquidity grab. A move above the weekly EMA50 would trigger a strong emotional shift, creating a bullish trap that could propel price toward the next cluster at $107,000. This allows market makers to build maximal short liquidation zones below, setting the stage for a profitable "big short."
📈 Three Scenarios for the Next Move
Trading is a game of probabilities. Given the confirmed bear market, the question is not if we hit the lower target, but how we get there.
Direct Bear Flag Play: A direct breakdown from the current bear flag structure straight toward the $70,000 target. (Likely)
$97K – $100K Liquidity Grab: Price spikes to retest the weekly EMA50 and clear the $97,000 liquidity, followed by a pivot toward $70,000. (Most Likely)
Max Fake Pump to $107K: A strong trap move that pushes price to the $107,000 cluster before the pivot to the $70,000 downside target. (Less Likely)
Analyst's View: The $70,000 target remains the high-probability destination, regardless of the intermediate bounce. My established macro short positions (entered between $115k – $125k) will be held, with plans to scale further into the trade within the $100k – $107k region if Scenario 2 or 3 plays out.
🗓️ Macro-Fundamental Event: FOMC Statement
The FOMC statement on Wednesday, December 10th, is the primary volatility catalyst this week.
Priced-In Cut: The market has already priced in an 86% chance of a 0.25% rate cut. This is unlikely to cause a massive move.
Unforeseen Hold: If the FOMC announces no rate cut (the 14% probability), expect a strong selling reaction, accelerating the bearish trend.
Overall, the macro-fundamentals (like the confirmed death cross) remain extremely bearish, making any upward movement a high-probability opportunity to establish or scale into short positions.
What are your thoughts on the FOMC's potential impact on the $97K liquidity zone? Let me know in the comments 🤔 🤔 💬 💬
