Bitcoin is once again trying to break the downward trend that has kept the crypto king constrained since the end of October. The price is close to 91,000 USD while investors are witnessing a rare change in market structure.
For the first time in more than two and a half years, short-term holders have surpassed long-term holders in realized gains, creating both opportunities and risks for BTC.
Bitcoin Sees Some Changes
MVRV Long/Short Difference shows a remarkable change in Bitcoin's profit distribution. A positive value typically signals that long-term holders have more unrealized gains, while a negative value indicates that short-term holders are ahead.
The difference in Bitcoin has fallen into negative territory for the first time since March 2023. This marks 30 months since short-term holders last led in profits.
Such dominance raises concerns as short-term holders often sell aggressively when volatility increases. Their profit-taking behavior may put pressure on BTC's price if the broader market weakens, especially during attempts to break down the downtrend.
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Despite this change, Bitcoin's broader momentum shows encouraging signs. Data on changes in the currency's net position confirms increasing outflows across major platforms, signaling a shift in investor accumulation. BTC leaving exchanges is often seen as a positive signal, reflecting confidence in long-term value appreciation.
This trend suggests that many traders see 90,000 USD as a reasonable bottom area and are preparing for a possible recovery. Continued outflows support price stability and strengthen the likelihood of BTC breaking above immediate resistance levels.
Bitcoin is trading at 91,330 USD at the time of writing and is just below the resistance at 91,521 USD. Regaining this level and turning it into support is crucial for BTC to challenge it and the one-and-a-half month-long downtrend. Without this breakout, upward momentum remains limited.
If short-term holders refrain from selling and accumulation continues, Bitcoin could climb towards 95,000 USD. A successful breakout above that level could send BTC towards 98,000 USD, signaling renewed strength.
But if short-term holders start taking profits, this could push BTC back towards 86,822 USD. A fall to this level would prevent any meaningful breakout and invalidate the positive setup, keeping Bitcoin within its week-long downtrend.
