$BTC Bitcoin surged significantly at midnight, pulling up from a low of $87,688 with increased trading volume, forming a large green candlestick. There was a subsequent red candle pullback, but overall it oscillated between $89,000 and $91,000.
Moving Averages: The price is below the MA7/MA25/MA99, indicating short-term weakness, but it has managed to stay above some short-term moving averages.
Overall technical indicators are neutral to mildly bullish (RSI ~43, not oversold; MACD shows signs of a golden cross), but it is still in a descending channel and needs to break through $93,000 to $95,000 to confirm a trend reversal.
The funding rate is currently overall positive (most exchanges around ~0.01%), with longs still needing to pay fees to shorts, indicating a certain preference for longs in the market, but far below the extreme positive values seen at the peak of the bull market (which has cooled, avoiding excessive leverage).
Open Interest is high, but the long-short ratio is tending towards balance, with recent liquidations mainly concentrated on longs, indicating that overly bullish positions have been partially washed out.
However, risks remain high:
Macroeconomic uncertainties (employment data, inflation, tariffs, etc.) could trigger a new wave of risk asset sell-offs.
- Technically, it has not fully broken the downward trend, with significant pressure above $100,000.
Perpetual contract leverage amplifies volatility; although the funding rate is not high, if another pullback occurs, liquidation risks are substantial.
Guidance for the upcoming direction:
In the short term (a few days to a few weeks), there is some rebound potential:
It has recently rebounded over 10% from the lows, the funding rate is not high, leverage is not overly crowded, and technical signals indicate a stop in the decline.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December + ETF outflows slow down, it could quickly rebound to $95,000 to $100,000.
A more prudent approach is to wait for a clear breakout above $95,000 accompanied by increased volume/funding rate strengthening before adding positions.
In the long term (2026+), most models and experts remain strongly bullish, and the current price is relatively undervalued, suitable for holding spot or dollar-cost averaging, but perpetual long positions should be cautiously controlled in terms of position size and leverage.
The above information does not constitute investment advice and is merely personal opinion analysis; please exercise your own judgment for high-risk investments, and losses are at your own risk.
#币安合约
Moving Averages: The price is below the MA7/MA25/MA99, indicating short-term weakness, but it has managed to stay above some short-term moving averages.
Overall technical indicators are neutral to mildly bullish (RSI ~43, not oversold; MACD shows signs of a golden cross), but it is still in a descending channel and needs to break through $93,000 to $95,000 to confirm a trend reversal.
The funding rate is currently overall positive (most exchanges around ~0.01%), with longs still needing to pay fees to shorts, indicating a certain preference for longs in the market, but far below the extreme positive values seen at the peak of the bull market (which has cooled, avoiding excessive leverage).
Open Interest is high, but the long-short ratio is tending towards balance, with recent liquidations mainly concentrated on longs, indicating that overly bullish positions have been partially washed out.
However, risks remain high:
Macroeconomic uncertainties (employment data, inflation, tariffs, etc.) could trigger a new wave of risk asset sell-offs.
- Technically, it has not fully broken the downward trend, with significant pressure above $100,000.
Perpetual contract leverage amplifies volatility; although the funding rate is not high, if another pullback occurs, liquidation risks are substantial.
Guidance for the upcoming direction:
In the short term (a few days to a few weeks), there is some rebound potential:
It has recently rebounded over 10% from the lows, the funding rate is not high, leverage is not overly crowded, and technical signals indicate a stop in the decline.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December + ETF outflows slow down, it could quickly rebound to $95,000 to $100,000.
A more prudent approach is to wait for a clear breakout above $95,000 accompanied by increased volume/funding rate strengthening before adding positions.
In the long term (2026+), most models and experts remain strongly bullish, and the current price is relatively undervalued, suitable for holding spot or dollar-cost averaging, but perpetual long positions should be cautiously controlled in terms of position size and leverage.
The above information does not constitute investment advice and is merely personal opinion analysis; please exercise your own judgment for high-risk investments, and losses are at your own risk.
#币安合约
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
BTC
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