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利用三种先进AI模型及进行加密货币预测。如永续合约的多空方向，胜率的占比。最佳入场价格，止盈价格，止损价格。经验总结：胜率在75%-90%是有确定稳定的胜算。55%-70%是震荡，开合约比较容易被套。最佳入场价格和止损价格预测得非常精准，请一定参考。止赢价格请按照自己意愿平仓。使用我的币安链接和邀请码开户，享VIP服务
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$BTC : Bitcoin Data: CoinGecko's latest data is approximately $91,244, up about 1.9% in 24 hours.
Bitcoin On-chain and Capital: ETF inflows have slowed, but institutional demand remains robust; miner selling pressure has weakened; leveraged liquidation has absorbed over $1 billion in long positions.
Currently, the direction is bullish, suitable for swing trading or holding positions.
Opening positions are suitable in the $89,000-$90,000 range (near the current price or with a slight pullback, close to the 100-week moving average and CME gap support).
Stop-loss should be strictly set below $87,000-$88,000 (if it breaks, it may test $83,000-$85,000, invalidating the bullish structure).
Take profit targets: $95,000-$98,000 (recent resistance).
#币安合约
Bitcoin On-chain and Capital: ETF inflows have slowed, but institutional demand remains robust; miner selling pressure has weakened; leveraged liquidation has absorbed over $1 billion in long positions.
Currently, the direction is bullish, suitable for swing trading or holding positions.
Opening positions are suitable in the $89,000-$90,000 range (near the current price or with a slight pullback, close to the 100-week moving average and CME gap support).
Stop-loss should be strictly set below $87,000-$88,000 (if it breaks, it may test $83,000-$85,000, invalidating the bullish structure).
Take profit targets: $95,000-$98,000 (recent resistance).
#币安合约
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Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
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Open the warehouse according to the guidance points, manage with low multiples, and earn money slowly
$BTC Bitcoin surged significantly at midnight, pulling up from a low of $87,688 with increased trading volume, forming a large green candlestick. There was a subsequent red candle pullback, but overall it oscillated between $89,000 and $91,000.
Moving Averages: The price is below the MA7/MA25/MA99, indicating short-term weakness, but it has managed to stay above some short-term moving averages.
Overall technical indicators are neutral to mildly bullish (RSI ~43, not oversold; MACD shows signs of a golden cross), but it is still in a descending channel and needs to break through $93,000 to $95,000 to confirm a trend reversal.
The funding rate is currently overall positive (most exchanges around ~0.01%), with longs still needing to pay fees to shorts, indicating a certain preference for longs in the market, but far below the extreme positive values seen at the peak of the bull market (which has cooled, avoiding excessive leverage).
Open Interest is high, but the long-short ratio is tending towards balance, with recent liquidations mainly concentrated on longs, indicating that overly bullish positions have been partially washed out.
However, risks remain high:
Macroeconomic uncertainties (employment data, inflation, tariffs, etc.) could trigger a new wave of risk asset sell-offs.
- Technically, it has not fully broken the downward trend, with significant pressure above $100,000.
Perpetual contract leverage amplifies volatility; although the funding rate is not high, if another pullback occurs, liquidation risks are substantial.
Guidance for the upcoming direction:
In the short term (a few days to a few weeks), there is some rebound potential:
It has recently rebounded over 10% from the lows, the funding rate is not high, leverage is not overly crowded, and technical signals indicate a stop in the decline.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December + ETF outflows slow down, it could quickly rebound to $95,000 to $100,000.
A more prudent approach is to wait for a clear breakout above $95,000 accompanied by increased volume/funding rate strengthening before adding positions.
In the long term (2026+), most models and experts remain strongly bullish, and the current price is relatively undervalued, suitable for holding spot or dollar-cost averaging, but perpetual long positions should be cautiously controlled in terms of position size and leverage.
The above information does not constitute investment advice and is merely personal opinion analysis; please exercise your own judgment for high-risk investments, and losses are at your own risk.
#币安合约
Moving Averages: The price is below the MA7/MA25/MA99, indicating short-term weakness, but it has managed to stay above some short-term moving averages.
Overall technical indicators are neutral to mildly bullish (RSI ~43, not oversold; MACD shows signs of a golden cross), but it is still in a descending channel and needs to break through $93,000 to $95,000 to confirm a trend reversal.
The funding rate is currently overall positive (most exchanges around ~0.01%), with longs still needing to pay fees to shorts, indicating a certain preference for longs in the market, but far below the extreme positive values seen at the peak of the bull market (which has cooled, avoiding excessive leverage).
Open Interest is high, but the long-short ratio is tending towards balance, with recent liquidations mainly concentrated on longs, indicating that overly bullish positions have been partially washed out.
However, risks remain high:
Macroeconomic uncertainties (employment data, inflation, tariffs, etc.) could trigger a new wave of risk asset sell-offs.
- Technically, it has not fully broken the downward trend, with significant pressure above $100,000.
Perpetual contract leverage amplifies volatility; although the funding rate is not high, if another pullback occurs, liquidation risks are substantial.
Guidance for the upcoming direction:
In the short term (a few days to a few weeks), there is some rebound potential:
It has recently rebounded over 10% from the lows, the funding rate is not high, leverage is not overly crowded, and technical signals indicate a stop in the decline.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December + ETF outflows slow down, it could quickly rebound to $95,000 to $100,000.
A more prudent approach is to wait for a clear breakout above $95,000 accompanied by increased volume/funding rate strengthening before adding positions.
In the long term (2026+), most models and experts remain strongly bullish, and the current price is relatively undervalued, suitable for holding spot or dollar-cost averaging, but perpetual long positions should be cautiously controlled in terms of position size and leverage.
The above information does not constitute investment advice and is merely personal opinion analysis; please exercise your own judgment for high-risk investments, and losses are at your own risk.
#币安合约
See original
If you are a short-term trader, you can currently open a small long position around $89,000–$91,000, with a strict stop loss below $87,000. The initial target is $93,000–$95,000.
$BTC Bitcoin surged significantly at midnight, pulling up from a low of $87,688 with increased trading volume, forming a large green candlestick. There was a subsequent red candle pullback, but overall it oscillated between $89,000 and $91,000.
Moving Averages: The price is below the MA7/MA25/MA99, indicating short-term weakness, but it has managed to stay above some short-term moving averages.
Overall technical indicators are neutral to mildly bullish (RSI ~43, not oversold; MACD shows signs of a golden cross), but it is still in a descending channel and needs to break through $93,000 to $95,000 to confirm a trend reversal.
The funding rate is currently overall positive (most exchanges around ~0.01%), with longs still needing to pay fees to shorts, indicating a certain preference for longs in the market, but far below the extreme positive values seen at the peak of the bull market (which has cooled, avoiding excessive leverage).
Open Interest is high, but the long-short ratio is tending towards balance, with recent liquidations mainly concentrated on longs, indicating that overly bullish positions have been partially washed out.
However, risks remain high:
Macroeconomic uncertainties (employment data, inflation, tariffs, etc.) could trigger a new wave of risk asset sell-offs.
- Technically, it has not fully broken the downward trend, with significant pressure above $100,000.
Perpetual contract leverage amplifies volatility; although the funding rate is not high, if another pullback occurs, liquidation risks are substantial.
Guidance for the upcoming direction:
In the short term (a few days to a few weeks), there is some rebound potential:
It has recently rebounded over 10% from the lows, the funding rate is not high, leverage is not overly crowded, and technical signals indicate a stop in the decline.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December + ETF outflows slow down, it could quickly rebound to $95,000 to $100,000.
A more prudent approach is to wait for a clear breakout above $95,000 accompanied by increased volume/funding rate strengthening before adding positions.
In the long term (2026+), most models and experts remain strongly bullish, and the current price is relatively undervalued, suitable for holding spot or dollar-cost averaging, but perpetual long positions should be cautiously controlled in terms of position size and leverage.
The above information does not constitute investment advice and is merely personal opinion analysis; please exercise your own judgment for high-risk investments, and losses are at your own risk.
#币安合约
Moving Averages: The price is below the MA7/MA25/MA99, indicating short-term weakness, but it has managed to stay above some short-term moving averages.
Overall technical indicators are neutral to mildly bullish (RSI ~43, not oversold; MACD shows signs of a golden cross), but it is still in a descending channel and needs to break through $93,000 to $95,000 to confirm a trend reversal.
The funding rate is currently overall positive (most exchanges around ~0.01%), with longs still needing to pay fees to shorts, indicating a certain preference for longs in the market, but far below the extreme positive values seen at the peak of the bull market (which has cooled, avoiding excessive leverage).
Open Interest is high, but the long-short ratio is tending towards balance, with recent liquidations mainly concentrated on longs, indicating that overly bullish positions have been partially washed out.
However, risks remain high:
Macroeconomic uncertainties (employment data, inflation, tariffs, etc.) could trigger a new wave of risk asset sell-offs.
- Technically, it has not fully broken the downward trend, with significant pressure above $100,000.
Perpetual contract leverage amplifies volatility; although the funding rate is not high, if another pullback occurs, liquidation risks are substantial.
Guidance for the upcoming direction:
In the short term (a few days to a few weeks), there is some rebound potential:
It has recently rebounded over 10% from the lows, the funding rate is not high, leverage is not overly crowded, and technical signals indicate a stop in the decline.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December + ETF outflows slow down, it could quickly rebound to $95,000 to $100,000.
A more prudent approach is to wait for a clear breakout above $95,000 accompanied by increased volume/funding rate strengthening before adding positions.
In the long term (2026+), most models and experts remain strongly bullish, and the current price is relatively undervalued, suitable for holding spot or dollar-cost averaging, but perpetual long positions should be cautiously controlled in terms of position size and leverage.
The above information does not constitute investment advice and is merely personal opinion analysis; please exercise your own judgment for high-risk investments, and losses are at your own risk.
#币安合约
See original
$BTC Bitcoin surged significantly at midnight, pulling up from a low of $87,688 with increased trading volume, forming a large green candlestick. There was a subsequent red candle pullback, but overall it oscillated between $89,000 and $91,000.
Moving Averages: The price is below the MA7/MA25/MA99, indicating short-term weakness, but it has managed to stay above some short-term moving averages.
Overall technical indicators are neutral to mildly bullish (RSI ~43, not oversold; MACD shows signs of a golden cross), but it is still in a descending channel and needs to break through $93,000 to $95,000 to confirm a trend reversal.
The funding rate is currently overall positive (most exchanges around ~0.01%), with longs still needing to pay fees to shorts, indicating a certain preference for longs in the market, but far below the extreme positive values seen at the peak of the bull market (which has cooled, avoiding excessive leverage).
Open Interest is high, but the long-short ratio is tending towards balance, with recent liquidations mainly concentrated on longs, indicating that overly bullish positions have been partially washed out.
However, risks remain high:
Macroeconomic uncertainties (employment data, inflation, tariffs, etc.) could trigger a new wave of risk asset sell-offs.
- Technically, it has not fully broken the downward trend, with significant pressure above $100,000.
Perpetual contract leverage amplifies volatility; although the funding rate is not high, if another pullback occurs, liquidation risks are substantial.
Guidance for the upcoming direction:
In the short term (a few days to a few weeks), there is some rebound potential:
It has recently rebounded over 10% from the lows, the funding rate is not high, leverage is not overly crowded, and technical signals indicate a stop in the decline.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December + ETF outflows slow down, it could quickly rebound to $95,000 to $100,000.
A more prudent approach is to wait for a clear breakout above $95,000 accompanied by increased volume/funding rate strengthening before adding positions.
In the long term (2026+), most models and experts remain strongly bullish, and the current price is relatively undervalued, suitable for holding spot or dollar-cost averaging, but perpetual long positions should be cautiously controlled in terms of position size and leverage.
The above information does not constitute investment advice and is merely personal opinion analysis; please exercise your own judgment for high-risk investments, and losses are at your own risk.
#币安合约
Moving Averages: The price is below the MA7/MA25/MA99, indicating short-term weakness, but it has managed to stay above some short-term moving averages.
Overall technical indicators are neutral to mildly bullish (RSI ~43, not oversold; MACD shows signs of a golden cross), but it is still in a descending channel and needs to break through $93,000 to $95,000 to confirm a trend reversal.
The funding rate is currently overall positive (most exchanges around ~0.01%), with longs still needing to pay fees to shorts, indicating a certain preference for longs in the market, but far below the extreme positive values seen at the peak of the bull market (which has cooled, avoiding excessive leverage).
Open Interest is high, but the long-short ratio is tending towards balance, with recent liquidations mainly concentrated on longs, indicating that overly bullish positions have been partially washed out.
However, risks remain high:
Macroeconomic uncertainties (employment data, inflation, tariffs, etc.) could trigger a new wave of risk asset sell-offs.
- Technically, it has not fully broken the downward trend, with significant pressure above $100,000.
Perpetual contract leverage amplifies volatility; although the funding rate is not high, if another pullback occurs, liquidation risks are substantial.
Guidance for the upcoming direction:
In the short term (a few days to a few weeks), there is some rebound potential:
It has recently rebounded over 10% from the lows, the funding rate is not high, leverage is not overly crowded, and technical signals indicate a stop in the decline.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December + ETF outflows slow down, it could quickly rebound to $95,000 to $100,000.
A more prudent approach is to wait for a clear breakout above $95,000 accompanied by increased volume/funding rate strengthening before adding positions.
In the long term (2026+), most models and experts remain strongly bullish, and the current price is relatively undervalued, suitable for holding spot or dollar-cost averaging, but perpetual long positions should be cautiously controlled in terms of position size and leverage.
The above information does not constitute investment advice and is merely personal opinion analysis; please exercise your own judgment for high-risk investments, and losses are at your own risk.
#币安合约
My Futures Portfolio
0 / 200
Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
USDT
7D ROI
0.00%
AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC : Next week, multiple macroeconomic policies will be released, and everyone is concerned about the direction of Bitcoin. Here is a forecast for next week's (December 9-15) trend.
At this point in time, Bitcoin's market capitalization is approximately $1.79 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $45-50 billion. Short-term technical indicators show oversold conditions (RSI at a low level), but MACD remains weak, with key support at $86,000-$88,000 and resistance at $92,000-$95,000.
The short-term remains highly volatile, with a key event being the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (high probability of a 25-50bps rate cut).
Bullish technical analysis indicates:
The probability of a bullish scenario is high. If support at $86,000-$88,000 is maintained, a rebound may test $92,000-$95,000, and even push towards $98,000-$102,000. Institutional inflows and expectations of rate cuts could drive a rapid filling of the CME gap.
Bearish scenario: If support at $86,000 is lost, further declines to $80,000-$83,000 may occur (in extreme cases, testing $78,000), but this seems more like a "liquidation of leverage" rather than a trend reversal.
Overall, the current pullback is a normal adjustment in a bull market (30%+ retracement is common in historical bull markets). With continued accumulation by institutions and macroeconomic easing support, there is a high probability of oscillation upward or at least stabilization next week. The long-term target remains at $120,000-$170,000 (by the end of 2025). It is recommended to pay attention to the $86K support and $95K resistance, with risk management as a priority; investing carries risks.
The above information does not constitute investment advice and is merely a personal analysis. Please make your own judgment for high-risk investments; losses are at your own risk.
#币安合约
At this point in time, Bitcoin's market capitalization is approximately $1.79 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $45-50 billion. Short-term technical indicators show oversold conditions (RSI at a low level), but MACD remains weak, with key support at $86,000-$88,000 and resistance at $92,000-$95,000.
The short-term remains highly volatile, with a key event being the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (high probability of a 25-50bps rate cut).
Bullish technical analysis indicates:
The probability of a bullish scenario is high. If support at $86,000-$88,000 is maintained, a rebound may test $92,000-$95,000, and even push towards $98,000-$102,000. Institutional inflows and expectations of rate cuts could drive a rapid filling of the CME gap.
Bearish scenario: If support at $86,000 is lost, further declines to $80,000-$83,000 may occur (in extreme cases, testing $78,000), but this seems more like a "liquidation of leverage" rather than a trend reversal.
Overall, the current pullback is a normal adjustment in a bull market (30%+ retracement is common in historical bull markets). With continued accumulation by institutions and macroeconomic easing support, there is a high probability of oscillation upward or at least stabilization next week. The long-term target remains at $120,000-$170,000 (by the end of 2025). It is recommended to pay attention to the $86K support and $95K resistance, with risk management as a priority; investing carries risks.
The above information does not constitute investment advice and is merely a personal analysis. Please make your own judgment for high-risk investments; losses are at your own risk.
#币安合约
My Futures Portfolio
0 / 200
Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
USDT
7D ROI
0.00%
AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC ：Focus on the impact of next week's monetary policy on the cryptocurrency market.
Next week marks the last "Central Bank Super Week" of 2025, with monetary policies from multiple countries being announced, expected to be highly volatile. These events typically have a significant effect on the cryptocurrency market.
December 17-18: European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and press conference.
The ECB is expected to discuss whether to further cut interest rates (current deposit rate is about 2%). If the signals are dovish (more accommodative), it could benefit risk assets including cryptocurrencies; conversely, it may exacerbate market pressure. The recent cryptocurrency market has been sensitive to expectations of central bank easing, and this meeting is one of the core events of the global central bank super week in December.
December 18: Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision
The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, but the statement and voting distribution will affect the pound and global risk sentiment. If hints of rate cuts next year are released, it may provide a short-term boost to the cryptocurrency market.
December 18: US November CPI data release
This is the first important inflation indicator after the Federal Reserve's decision on December 10 (the release date was adjusted due to government shutdown impact). If the CPI is lower than expected, it will strengthen expectations for further interest rate cuts in 2026, benefiting cryptocurrencies; if higher than expected, it may trigger risk-averse sentiment, leading to further pullbacks.
December 19: Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision
The market is paying attention to whether there will be a rate hike (recent rumors suggest action may occur in December). If rates are increased, it will strengthen the yen and suppress global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrencies are currently in a correction phase (Bitcoin has fallen over 30% from its yearly high), primarily affected by tightening macro liquidity and fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. If the overall signals are dovish (accommodative), it may help stabilize or rebound the market; if hawkish, short-term pressure may continue.
The above information does not constitute investment advice, only personal opinion analysis. Please make your own judgment on high-risk investments, and bear your own losses.
#Binance Contract
Next week marks the last "Central Bank Super Week" of 2025, with monetary policies from multiple countries being announced, expected to be highly volatile. These events typically have a significant effect on the cryptocurrency market.
December 17-18: European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and press conference.
The ECB is expected to discuss whether to further cut interest rates (current deposit rate is about 2%). If the signals are dovish (more accommodative), it could benefit risk assets including cryptocurrencies; conversely, it may exacerbate market pressure. The recent cryptocurrency market has been sensitive to expectations of central bank easing, and this meeting is one of the core events of the global central bank super week in December.
December 18: Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision
The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, but the statement and voting distribution will affect the pound and global risk sentiment. If hints of rate cuts next year are released, it may provide a short-term boost to the cryptocurrency market.
December 18: US November CPI data release
This is the first important inflation indicator after the Federal Reserve's decision on December 10 (the release date was adjusted due to government shutdown impact). If the CPI is lower than expected, it will strengthen expectations for further interest rate cuts in 2026, benefiting cryptocurrencies; if higher than expected, it may trigger risk-averse sentiment, leading to further pullbacks.
December 19: Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision
The market is paying attention to whether there will be a rate hike (recent rumors suggest action may occur in December). If rates are increased, it will strengthen the yen and suppress global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrencies are currently in a correction phase (Bitcoin has fallen over 30% from its yearly high), primarily affected by tightening macro liquidity and fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. If the overall signals are dovish (accommodative), it may help stabilize or rebound the market; if hawkish, short-term pressure may continue.
The above information does not constitute investment advice, only personal opinion analysis. Please make your own judgment on high-risk investments, and bear your own losses.
#Binance Contract
My Futures Portfolio
0 / 200
Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
USDT
7D ROI
0.00%
AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC Everyone is concerned about whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates and whether this will affect the cryptocurrency market. Here's a prediction of the rate hike and its subsequent impact.
Yes, it's certain that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates (from 0.5% to 0.75%) at its December 18-19 meeting, which will indeed affect the cryptocurrency market.
This will primarily be through the partial unwinding mechanism of yen carry trades, leading to short-term liquidity tightening and selling pressure on risky assets. Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, is particularly sensitive to such changes in global liquidity.
After Kazuo Ueda's speech on December 1st reinforced expectations of a rate hike, the yen appreciated rapidly, and Japanese government bond yields soared, triggering a global sell-off of risky assets.
Bitcoin fell from a high of approximately $92,000-$93,000 in late November/early December to around $85,000-$87,000, a drop of about 7-10%, accompanied by the liquidation of hundreds of millions of dollars in leveraged long positions.
The impact on Bitcoin is also present.
In the short term (around the December meeting): There is some downside risk, but a "crash-like" drop (such as the 18-20% flash crash in early 2024/2025) is unlikely.
The market has largely priced in the interest rate hike expectations (70-90% probability), and Japanese government bond yields have risen to multi-year highs, limiting the yen's appreciation potential.
Even with a 25 basis point hike, the Japanese interest rate would only be 0.75%, far lower than the US rate of around 3.75%, resulting in a large interest rate differential between the US and Japan, preventing a large-scale unwinding of carry trades.
Current Bitcoin price: approximately $89,000-$90,000, having rebounded from the early December lows, indicating market stabilization after digesting expectations.
Overall, this interest rate hike will bring short-term volatility and downward pressure (potentially another 5-10% drop), but is unlikely to cause a Bitcoin "crash" or a bear market. The crypto market is more mature, sensitive to such macroeconomic events but recovering quickly. We suggest paying close attention to the actual decisions made at the December meeting. If it's just a moderate interest rate hike coupled with dovish guidance, the market is likely to rebound quickly. When investing, be careful to control leverage to avoid being swept away by short-term fluctuations.
#币安合约
Yes, it's certain that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates (from 0.5% to 0.75%) at its December 18-19 meeting, which will indeed affect the cryptocurrency market.
This will primarily be through the partial unwinding mechanism of yen carry trades, leading to short-term liquidity tightening and selling pressure on risky assets. Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, is particularly sensitive to such changes in global liquidity.
After Kazuo Ueda's speech on December 1st reinforced expectations of a rate hike, the yen appreciated rapidly, and Japanese government bond yields soared, triggering a global sell-off of risky assets.
Bitcoin fell from a high of approximately $92,000-$93,000 in late November/early December to around $85,000-$87,000, a drop of about 7-10%, accompanied by the liquidation of hundreds of millions of dollars in leveraged long positions.
The impact on Bitcoin is also present.
In the short term (around the December meeting): There is some downside risk, but a "crash-like" drop (such as the 18-20% flash crash in early 2024/2025) is unlikely.
The market has largely priced in the interest rate hike expectations (70-90% probability), and Japanese government bond yields have risen to multi-year highs, limiting the yen's appreciation potential.
Even with a 25 basis point hike, the Japanese interest rate would only be 0.75%, far lower than the US rate of around 3.75%, resulting in a large interest rate differential between the US and Japan, preventing a large-scale unwinding of carry trades.
Current Bitcoin price: approximately $89,000-$90,000, having rebounded from the early December lows, indicating market stabilization after digesting expectations.
Overall, this interest rate hike will bring short-term volatility and downward pressure (potentially another 5-10% drop), but is unlikely to cause a Bitcoin "crash" or a bear market. The crypto market is more mature, sensitive to such macroeconomic events but recovering quickly. We suggest paying close attention to the actual decisions made at the December meeting. If it's just a moderate interest rate hike coupled with dovish guidance, the market is likely to rebound quickly. When investing, be careful to control leverage to avoid being swept away by short-term fluctuations.
#币安合约
My Futures Portfolio
0 / 200
Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
USDT
7D ROI
0.00%
AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC Bitcoin experienced volatility today. Let's take a look at short-term operational guidance: (within December) the probability of going long is higher (about 60-65%), while the probability of going short is lower (35-40%).
Reason:
The technical indicators are oversold (RSI close to 30, often rebounds after a death cross on the weekly chart).
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December exceeds 85%, which is basically priced in, but the tail risk of not cutting rates is the real black swan.
At the end of the year, institutions tend to 'performance chase' and seasonal effects usually favor risk assets.
The risk of going short is extremely high: if there is a rebound to the liquidity pool at 97-100k or 107k, it will trigger a massive short squeeze.
The long-term outlook (2026+) remains in a bull market cycle; shorts are just noise.
I recommend a bullish operation, buying low in the support zone rather than chasing shorts.
Conservative long: Best entry: 86,000 - 88,000 (near current price or slight pullback)
Stop loss: below 83,000 (recent low)
Take profit: 95,000-97,000
#币安合约
Reason:
The technical indicators are oversold (RSI close to 30, often rebounds after a death cross on the weekly chart).
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December exceeds 85%, which is basically priced in, but the tail risk of not cutting rates is the real black swan.
At the end of the year, institutions tend to 'performance chase' and seasonal effects usually favor risk assets.
The risk of going short is extremely high: if there is a rebound to the liquidity pool at 97-100k or 107k, it will trigger a massive short squeeze.
The long-term outlook (2026+) remains in a bull market cycle; shorts are just noise.
I recommend a bullish operation, buying low in the support zone rather than chasing shorts.
Conservative long: Best entry: 86,000 - 88,000 (near current price or slight pullback)
Stop loss: below 83,000 (recent low)
Take profit: 95,000-97,000
#币安合约
My Futures Portfolio
0 / 200
Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
USDT
7D ROI
0.00%
AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC : The probability of going long is higher (about 65-70%), but caution is still needed in the short term.
In the short term (within 12 months), there may be continued fluctuations or slight declines, with further pullback risks, but the probability of a major drop is low (strong support).
In the medium term (early 2026), the probability of a rebound is high, with the Federal Reserve likely to lower interest rates in December, institutional funds returning, and seasonal factors (the historical average increase in December is 9.7%) all favoring the bulls.
Suggested trading strategy (for reference only):
Best entry price: 88,000-89,500 (accumulate in batches when near the current price or on slight pullbacks, the lower the better).
Stop-loss point: below 86,000-87,000 (for stricter control, it can be set at 83,000, with a risk of about 3-8%).
Take-profit points:
First target: 93,000-95,000 (short term, profit 10-6%)
Second target: 100,000-105,000 (medium term, profit 15-20%+)
Third target: 110,000-120,000 (if there is a strong rebound in December)
#币安合约
In the short term (within 12 months), there may be continued fluctuations or slight declines, with further pullback risks, but the probability of a major drop is low (strong support).
In the medium term (early 2026), the probability of a rebound is high, with the Federal Reserve likely to lower interest rates in December, institutional funds returning, and seasonal factors (the historical average increase in December is 9.7%) all favoring the bulls.
Suggested trading strategy (for reference only):
Best entry price: 88,000-89,500 (accumulate in batches when near the current price or on slight pullbacks, the lower the better).
Stop-loss point: below 86,000-87,000 (for stricter control, it can be set at 83,000, with a risk of about 3-8%).
Take-profit points:
First target: 93,000-95,000 (short term, profit 10-6%)
Second target: 100,000-105,000 (medium term, profit 15-20%+)
Third target: 110,000-120,000 (if there is a strong rebound in December)
#币安合约
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0 / 200
Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
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7D ROI
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AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
Today is the weekend, liquidity is poor, and everyone is very concerned about the direction of Bitcoin. Let me discuss the temporary trading direction.
$BTC : Bitcoin contract trading is cautiously bullish in the short term (or observing), and bullish in the medium to long term.
Short-term (December) pullback risk is high, with potential dips to $83,000-$86,000. However, the probability of success for medium to long-term bullish positions is greater.
Fundamental support: supply scarcity, institutional adoption, macroeconomic easing). Current conditions are not the best for full position, suitable for observation.
If going long on contracts, please be patient and wait for the right moment, refer to the following strategy:
Best entry price: $87,000-$89,000 (near current price or slight pullback, close to short-term support + oversold area).
Take profit point: first target $93,000-$95,000 (short-term resistance), second target $100,000-$112,000 (if it breaks above $93K).
Stop loss point: short-term long position stop loss below $84,000-$85,000 (breakdown confirms continuation of the bear market).
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, it is recommended to consider individual risk tolerance, and pay attention to ETF inflows, Federal Reserve dynamics, and on-chain data.
#币安合约
$BTC : Bitcoin contract trading is cautiously bullish in the short term (or observing), and bullish in the medium to long term.
Short-term (December) pullback risk is high, with potential dips to $83,000-$86,000. However, the probability of success for medium to long-term bullish positions is greater.
Fundamental support: supply scarcity, institutional adoption, macroeconomic easing). Current conditions are not the best for full position, suitable for observation.
If going long on contracts, please be patient and wait for the right moment, refer to the following strategy:
Best entry price: $87,000-$89,000 (near current price or slight pullback, close to short-term support + oversold area).
Take profit point: first target $93,000-$95,000 (short-term resistance), second target $100,000-$112,000 (if it breaks above $93K).
Stop loss point: short-term long position stop loss below $84,000-$85,000 (breakdown confirms continuation of the bear market).
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, it is recommended to consider individual risk tolerance, and pay attention to ETF inflows, Federal Reserve dynamics, and on-chain data.
#币安合约
My Futures Portfolio
0 / 200
Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
USDT
7D ROI
0.00%
AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC : Currently more suitable for observing or making small long positions, waiting for confirmation of a rebound, rather than aggressively shorting (risk of being squeezed out).
Suggested trading points:
Best entry price (long): 88,000-90,000 USD (current support area, oversold rebound opportunity).
Stop loss point: below 85,000-86,000 USD (breakout confirms bear trend).
Take profit point: First target 95,000-100,000 USD;
It is recommended to combine with risk management (such as not exceeding 5% of total funds)
#币安合约
Suggested trading points:
Best entry price (long): 88,000-90,000 USD (current support area, oversold rebound opportunity).
Stop loss point: below 85,000-86,000 USD (breakout confirms bear trend).
Take profit point: First target 95,000-100,000 USD;
It is recommended to combine with risk management (such as not exceeding 5% of total funds)
#币安合约
My Futures Portfolio
0 / 200
Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
USDT
7D ROI
0.00%
AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC : Short term (a few days to a few weeks): Not recommended to enter heavily long. The market is still deleveraging (ETF outflows, liquidation events), prices have repeatedly tested $94,000 unsuccessfully, and the short-term risk is skewed to the downside (potential retest of $88,000–$90,000). Leverage perpetual contracts amplify volatility and are easily liquidated.
Wait for confirmation signals: Break through and stabilize above $94,000 + increased trading volume, then consider long positions.
Overall: The long-term bullish structure of BTC has not broken (well above the 200-day MA), but patience is required in the short term.
#币安合约
Wait for confirmation signals: Break through and stabilize above $94,000 + increased trading volume, then consider long positions.
Overall: The long-term bullish structure of BTC has not broken (well above the 200-day MA), but patience is required in the short term.
#币安合约
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Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
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7D ROI
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AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC ：Short Selling: There are short-term opportunities, but the risks are extremely high, and aggressive short selling is not recommended.
The market funding rate is slightly negative (long positions pay short positions), indicating a bearish sentiment in the short term, but it could also trigger a short squeeze.
Technical Analysis: Prices are below the major MA lines, and the downward trend channel has not been broken. Many analysts view the current situation as a 'cycle adjustment' (similar to the 30%+ corrections seen in past bull markets), rather than the start of a bear market. Strong support (86,000–88,000 USD)
#币安合约
The market funding rate is slightly negative (long positions pay short positions), indicating a bearish sentiment in the short term, but it could also trigger a short squeeze.
Technical Analysis: Prices are below the major MA lines, and the downward trend channel has not been broken. Many analysts view the current situation as a 'cycle adjustment' (similar to the 30%+ corrections seen in past bull markets), rather than the start of a bear market. Strong support (86,000–88,000 USD)
#币安合约
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Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
USDT
7D ROI
0.00%
AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC : Higher probability of going long (approximately 60-70% chance of a mid-term rebound).
Reason:
The technical outlook is short-term bearish (price below the MA, RSI neutral to slightly lower), but it has not broken the bullish structure (above the 200-day moving average).
Strong fundamentals: institutional inflows, halving cycle, potential expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts (high probability in December).
Historically, after similar pullbacks (20-30%), there is usually a rebound at the end of the year or in the following Q1.
Short selling is suitable for very short-term speculation (leveraged players), but the risk is high—once it breaks $94,500, it could quickly squeeze shorts.
It is not recommended to short heavily: currently, it feels more like a “shakeout” in a bull market rather than a trend reversal.
Trading advice (for reference only, not investment advice)
-Best entry price: $90,000-$92,000 range (currently nearby or slightly retraced). If it drops below 90K, consider adding positions in batches (support around $88,000-$90,000).
Take profit points:
First target: $95,000-$100,000 (short-term resistance).
Second target: $110,000-$120,000 (potential high at the end of the year).
Stop loss point: for short-term trades set below $88,000 (if broken, it may test 85K). Long-term holding does not require strict stop-loss, but if it drops below 80K, reevaluation is needed.
#币安合约
Reason:
The technical outlook is short-term bearish (price below the MA, RSI neutral to slightly lower), but it has not broken the bullish structure (above the 200-day moving average).
Strong fundamentals: institutional inflows, halving cycle, potential expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts (high probability in December).
Historically, after similar pullbacks (20-30%), there is usually a rebound at the end of the year or in the following Q1.
Short selling is suitable for very short-term speculation (leveraged players), but the risk is high—once it breaks $94,500, it could quickly squeeze shorts.
It is not recommended to short heavily: currently, it feels more like a “shakeout” in a bull market rather than a trend reversal.
Trading advice (for reference only, not investment advice)
-Best entry price: $90,000-$92,000 range (currently nearby or slightly retraced). If it drops below 90K, consider adding positions in batches (support around $88,000-$90,000).
Take profit points:
First target: $95,000-$100,000 (short-term resistance).
Second target: $110,000-$120,000 (potential high at the end of the year).
Stop loss point: for short-term trades set below $88,000 (if broken, it may test 85K). Long-term holding does not require strict stop-loss, but if it drops below 80K, reevaluation is needed.
#币安合约
My Futures Portfolio
0 / 200
Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
USDT
7D ROI
0.00%
AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC : Short-term long positions carry higher risks.
Current sentiment remains fragile, the aftershocks of leverage liquidation have not dissipated, and while the funding rate is neutral, it is susceptible to macroeconomic influences (such as this week's U.S. employment/inflation data). If it falls below 90,000 USD again, it could trigger a chain reaction. Long positions in perpetual contracts must bear the costs of funding rates and potential liquidation risks.
Opportunity points: Prices have rebounded from a low point, and bullish signals have appeared technically (MACD turning positive, support holding steady). If it breaks through 94,000-95,000 USD, it can be seen as a confirmation signal for bulls.
Recommendations: High leverage long positions are not recommended. Wait for confirmation of a rebound (such as a daily close above 93,500 USD) or positive macro news. Prioritize risk management: set stop-loss below 90,000 USD, with initial targets at 96,000-98,000 USD.
#币安合约交易
Current sentiment remains fragile, the aftershocks of leverage liquidation have not dissipated, and while the funding rate is neutral, it is susceptible to macroeconomic influences (such as this week's U.S. employment/inflation data). If it falls below 90,000 USD again, it could trigger a chain reaction. Long positions in perpetual contracts must bear the costs of funding rates and potential liquidation risks.
Opportunity points: Prices have rebounded from a low point, and bullish signals have appeared technically (MACD turning positive, support holding steady). If it breaks through 94,000-95,000 USD, it can be seen as a confirmation signal for bulls.
Recommendations: High leverage long positions are not recommended. Wait for confirmation of a rebound (such as a daily close above 93,500 USD) or positive macro news. Prioritize risk management: set stop-loss below 90,000 USD, with initial targets at 96,000-98,000 USD.
#币安合约交易
My Futures Portfolio
0 / 200
Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
USDT
7D ROI
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AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC ：Do not recommend opening a long position with heavy investment immediately; it is advisable to be cautious or wait for a better entry point.
Reason:
High short-term uncertainty: Recently, there was a rebound after a sharp decline, but the leveraged market is prone to liquidations (there were large-scale liquidations in October). Long positions in perpetual contracts need to pay funding rates (if positive), and with the current market's fear sentiment, the risk of a pullback is greater than the potential for a surge.
Better strategy: Wait for a breakout confirmation above 94,000 for a rebound, or gradually build positions as it pulls back to the support level of 90,000-91,000. Use low leverage (<5x) and set strict stop losses.
#币安合约实盘交易
Reason:
High short-term uncertainty: Recently, there was a rebound after a sharp decline, but the leveraged market is prone to liquidations (there were large-scale liquidations in October). Long positions in perpetual contracts need to pay funding rates (if positive), and with the current market's fear sentiment, the risk of a pullback is greater than the potential for a surge.
Better strategy: Wait for a breakout confirmation above 94,000 for a rebound, or gradually build positions as it pulls back to the support level of 90,000-91,000. Use low leverage (<5x) and set strict stop losses.
#币安合约实盘交易
My Futures Portfolio
0 / 200
Minimum 10USDT
Copy trader have earned in last 7 days
0.00
USDT
7D ROI
0.00%
AUM
$918.50
Win Rate
78.26%
See original
$BTC Current suitable for small position entry to go long (win rate about 60-70% short-term rebound).
Extreme fear (Index 23-28) has historically often been a buying point; the rebound has started, reset after liquidation; currently an undervalued opportunity.
Leveraged contracts are high risk; if macro conditions worsen (Federal Reserve news) or liquidation reoccurs in the short term, it may quickly fall back. December has high volatility, not the starting point of a strong bull market.
Best entry price: 92,500-93,500 (current vicinity or slight pullback, hold the 92,000 support).
Take profit point: First target 95,000-96,000 (partially take profit); second target 97,000-100,000 (strong rebound).
Stop loss point: 91,000-92,000 (exit if it falls below, control risk 3-5%)
Extreme fear (Index 23-28) has historically often been a buying point; the rebound has started, reset after liquidation; currently an undervalued opportunity.
Leveraged contracts are high risk; if macro conditions worsen (Federal Reserve news) or liquidation reoccurs in the short term, it may quickly fall back. December has high volatility, not the starting point of a strong bull market.
Best entry price: 92,500-93,500 (current vicinity or slight pullback, hold the 92,000 support).
Take profit point: First target 95,000-96,000 (partially take profit); second target 97,000-100,000 (strong rebound).
Stop loss point: 91,000-92,000 (exit if it falls below, control risk 3-5%)
See original
$BTC : The probability of making a profit is relatively high (around 60-65%), with a short-term bullish trend dominating and a strong mid-term bullish outlook.
It is recommended to take a small position (leverage <5x) in perpetual contracts.
Best entry price: 92,000-92,500 USD (enter with a small position nearby, confirm the breakout at 93k to increase the position).
Take profit point: First target 100,000 USD (+8%); second target 105,000 USD (+13%, December high point).
Stop loss point: 88,000 USD (-5% risk, below EMA25 support).
It is recommended to take a small position (leverage <5x) in perpetual contracts.
Best entry price: 92,000-92,500 USD (enter with a small position nearby, confirm the breakout at 93k to increase the position).
Take profit point: First target 100,000 USD (+8%); second target 105,000 USD (+13%, December high point).
Stop loss point: 88,000 USD (-5% risk, below EMA25 support).
See original
$BTC : Bitcoin has rebounded to around 86600. It is not recommended to go long immediately. However, this is a "high-risk/high-reward accumulation zone" (extreme fear + oversold, historical buy signal on 7/12 ✅).
Reasons:
Bullish: Support holds at 86k (green demand zone), funding rate negative (shorts are easy to squeeze), QT ending + Japan's tax reform on December 5 may catalyze a rebound to 95k.
Suggestion: Wait until FOMC (December 9) for confirmation. If 86k holds + funding rate turns positive, open a small position (1-2x leverage) long, stop loss at 83k, target 92k (R:R 1:2).
Reasons:
Bullish: Support holds at 86k (green demand zone), funding rate negative (shorts are easy to squeeze), QT ending + Japan's tax reform on December 5 may catalyze a rebound to 95k.
Suggestion: Wait until FOMC (December 9) for confirmation. If 86k holds + funding rate turns positive, open a small position (1-2x leverage) long, stop loss at 83k, target 92k (R:R 1:2).
See original
$BTC Now is a suitable time to open a perpetual contract long position. But risk management is paramount; do not use all funds aggressively.
Currently, $90.5k is in the value zone, extreme fear + interest rate cut expectations support a rebound (potential +5%-10% to $95k-$97k).
Entry timing: pullback to $90k (EMA99), go long (1-3x), TP $93k-$95k, SL $89k (risk 1% of principal).
Position: total funds 1-5%, prioritize low leverage/spot avoidance fees.
Currently, $90.5k is in the value zone, extreme fear + interest rate cut expectations support a rebound (potential +5%-10% to $95k-$97k).
Entry timing: pullback to $90k (EMA99), go long (1-3x), TP $93k-$95k, SL $89k (risk 1% of principal).
Position: total funds 1-5%, prioritize low leverage/spot avoidance fees.
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