$BTC Bitcoin experienced volatility today. Let's take a look at short-term operational guidance: (within December) the probability of going long is higher (about 60-65%), while the probability of going short is lower (35-40%).
Reason:
The technical indicators are oversold (RSI close to 30, often rebounds after a death cross on the weekly chart).
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December exceeds 85%, which is basically priced in, but the tail risk of not cutting rates is the real black swan.
At the end of the year, institutions tend to 'performance chase' and seasonal effects usually favor risk assets.
The risk of going short is extremely high: if there is a rebound to the liquidity pool at 97-100k or 107k, it will trigger a massive short squeeze.
The long-term outlook (2026+) remains in a bull market cycle; shorts are just noise.
I recommend a bullish operation, buying low in the support zone rather than chasing shorts.
Conservative long: Best entry: 86,000 - 88,000 (near current price or slight pullback)
Stop loss: below 83,000 (recent low)
Take profit: 95,000-97,000
